Timber Rebuilder 2016 Draft Big Board v1.0 (Pre-Draft Lottery)

With the draft lottery around the corner, it seems necessary to simply rank the prospects as the Wolves could land anywhere between pick 1 and 6. I have mentioned that I believe the Wolves should trade the pick, but in the event that they do keep it or even trade down, I will rank the prospects from the Wolves perspective.

For the Wolves, young talent is not an issue. If the Wolves do keep the pick, it will be important that whoever that is drafted fit into the long-term plan. The Wolves have some serious deficiencies currently that prevent them from being competitive. There is no one player that can fix them for the Wolves, but it is important to at least understand what the deficiencies are.

First, the Wolves need three point shooting. It’s been an issue for a while now. There isn’t going to be a rookie that solves this issue by himself but they could at least help. There needs to be guys who can help stretch the floor for KAT and Wiggins through the game. There are a few guys in this draft that can help in this category.

Next, the Wolves are very weak at power forward. Conveniently, this draft is as well. It seems like Payne may be a better option than many of the power forwards immediately next season. But it doesn’t mean that we can search. A long-term starter at power forward could mean a small forward who plays stretch four or someone who can move Towns to the 4. The Wolves will need to get creative.

Lastly, the Wolves need scoring and defense off of the bench. The Wolves bench was great early on in the season when Zach LaVine and Kevin Martin were coming off of it, but fell off tremendously when Shabazz Muhammad was the only real threat that started the game wearing warm-ups.

The criterion used was through four areas. Star potential. Can they develop into a starter or more? Are they a high reward? Bust potential. Are they a high-risk prospect? Then I looked at the trends of the game and what the team needs. Shooting. Can they shoot the three and/ or how is their field goal percentage? I ran a regression model at one point to see which college statistics have the most statistical significance on a player’s NBA-career and field goal % was the most important. Next, I will also focus on defense. Not only is defense important to coach Thibodeau but its a growing trend in the league that for a player to be a net-positive player, they have to be able to defend.

Without further ado, here is the Timber Rebuilder pre-lottery/ mid-combine Draft Big Board. I will adjust the rankings as we get closer to the draft. For now, will set at a top 15.

 

1-Ben Simmons

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Star Potential: Very High

Bust Potential: Low

Shooting: Low

Defense: Medium

With ESPN Insider declaring that if the Wolves get the top pick Ingram should be the choice, it should make one more comfortable with taking Ben Simmons first. Ben Simmons’ skill set is very unique and hard to pass up. Simmons is a match up nightmare. He is physically and athletically already at an NBA-level. He can absolutely get to the rim at will and finish around the basket. What makes him unique is that he can get others involved. Before criticizing his shot, its important to note that you don’t have to be able to shoot in order to be good in the NBA. There is a mantra that the only way to beat the Warriors is to play like them and it is not true. I am sure Simmons’ shot and defense will be worked on greatly over his career. If he can become average at either, he will be a scary talent. I love Ingram, but Simmons is just too good of a talent to pass up. As a freshmen Simmons averaged 19 points, 12 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals a game. That is just absurd. Of all the players in this draft, Simmons absolutely has the highest ceiling.

2-Brandon Ingram

Star Potential: High

Bust Potential: Low

Shooting: High

Defense: Medium

Ingram is going to be great. The kid is a 6-10 small forward that can shoot, dribble, and play some decent defense. He also has a 7-3 wing span. I do believe he isn’t going to be able to see his potential immediately due to his weight and finding a position in the NBA. That discovery will be the make or break of Ingram reaching his potential. You have to be able to stay on the court defensively enough. He is not, and may never be, strong enough to guard a power forward. So as great of a shooter and ball handler as he is, this was the differentiating factor for me with Simmons and Ingram. I have no doubt in my mind that Ingram will be great offensively and be a mismatch for teams. He can shoot amazingly and could be the next Durant. But having height isn’t enough. It will be interesting to see how he develops.

3-Dragan Bender

Star Potential: High

Bust Potential: High

Shooting: Medium

Defense: Medium

The problem with Dragan Bender is he is still relatively unknown. There is video footage of him but he plays against weak competition and didn’t get a ton of playing time. I would find him more attractive if he was willing to spend another year overseas but what it seems like is that he is ready to come over the NBA immediately. That said, I believe he and Jaylen Brown are the biggest risks in this draft. Bender has the highest ceiling of all the players outside of the top two. If he can continue to develop his outside shot, inside game, and defense, he will be something special. He is already a great passer and can handle the ball a little bit. He fits the trend of where the game is headed. He would be a tremendous compliment to Towns at the 4 or 5.

4-Timothe Luwawu

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Star Potential: Medium

Bust Potential: Low

Shooting: Medium

Defense: Very High

What is attractive to me about Luwawu is he seems polished and athletic for a rookie. For anyone outside of the top three picks, he feels like the least likely to not be out of the NBA in five years. The reason being is that there is always a job for a 3-and-D guy, especially at the molding of Coach Thibodeau. His shot has improved to where there is hope he can be an above average shooter in the league, making him probably one of the better shooters on the team. Defensively, he is long, athletic and can guard anywhere from a point guard to small forward. Luwawu seems like the perfect combination of being able to contribute right away and still having a good amount of potential. If the Wolves get the 5th pick and the top three guys are off the board, Luwawu is whom I go with. There is still a month from the draft and I am sure this is the highest Luwawu will be until then.

5-Jamal Murray

Star Potential: Very Medium

Bust Potential: Medium

Shooting: High

Defense: Low

Jamal Murray can shoot and can score. He is also pretty versatile in that he can play the point guard and shooting guard. Adding to that, he is young and could potentially be one of the better shooters in the league with time. That is why I am such a fan. He isn’t the most gifted athletic and struggles defensively for sure. But he has enough size in which he can disrupt an offense or stay with two-guards, even if they are a second point guard. That said, I also don’t believe grabbing him at 5 would be what would happen in a normal draft. Also, scoring in college doesn’t always translate to scoring in the NBA.  That said, he seems like the type of prospect who would potentially be considered one of the better players in this draft five years from now. His offensive game already looks like a seasoned veteran’s.

6-Kris Dunn

Star Potential: High

Bust Potential: Medium

Shooting: Low

Defense: Medium

I am not crazy about Kris Dunn. I do believe he has the same ceiling as Bender nonetheless with less risk. My problem with Dunn is that I feel he used his size to his advantage in college to get to where he is. There is nothing wrong with that but it is not something that translates well at the NBA level.

7-Jacob Poeltl

Star Potential: Medium

Bust Potential: High

Shooting: Low

Defense: Medium

I am a fan of Poeltl, as of late at least. He is growing on me. He is a solid scoring with his back to the basket and within 15-feet. He can be a terror on the offensive boards and a sound defender. He is a prototypical center and reminds me of Vucevic without a jump shot. I think he could be a solid starting center in the NBA. I don’t believe he fits in with the Wolves entirely well nonetheless. The Wolves have Dieng already.

8-Buddy Hield

Star Potential: Medium

Bust Potential: Medium

Shooting: Very High

Defense: Low

Buddy is Buddy. I would not be upset if the Wolves grabbed Buddy at 5. He can shoot the lights out. He can provide an immediate impact on the offensive side of the floor. My concern is everywhere else. How will he react when he isn’t the focal point of an offense? Can he improve his shot selection? Will he be able to defend so he can stay on the court? While I love Buddy, I am more in the camp of ‘Meh’ when it comes to the idea of him playing for the Wolves. I would rather grab Jamal Murray.

9-Jaylen Brown

Star Potential: Very medium

Bust Potential: High

Shooting: Medium

Defense: Medium

I’ll be honest Jaylen Brown scares me. He is a prototypical small forward who is gifted physically. He is quick and athletic. He is also a solid slasher. But he has been so inconsistent in his one year that its hard to justify taking him in the top 5. I am certain as the draft approaches, he will not be someone that moves up. I have him rated fairly low but it is where I think it is worth taking the risk at. I was a much bigger fan of Ivan Rabb but he went back for another year, which will likely benefit him. Brown has some star potential, but his risk is scary to me. Nothing stands out about him. It will be interesting what happens with him the next few weeks.

10 – Wade Baldwin

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Star Potential: Slightly Medium

Bust Potential: Low

Shooting: High

Defense: High

If the Wolves trade down, Wade Baldwin is a player I believe needs to be taken into serious consideration. The 6-3 point guard has a 6-11 wingspan and can do a lot on the court. That is the biggest differential in this year’s draft. He is another 3-and-D guy and reminds me of Avery Bradley, another player I love. Baldwin is capable of guarding both guard positions and has a good shooting stroke. What makes me really excited about Baldwin is that these skills are there. I don’t believe he will be a star in the league, but I do believe he has the least amount of bust potential if looking for a role player. He is slated to go mid-first round, but to me is worth looking at if the Wolves drop to 6. It sounds crazy but I value his skill set. He is going to have to learn to create offense for himself but depending on how he is used, that may not be necessary. Dunn is above him for the fact that Dunn can create for him and others and is more of a true point guard. Baldwin has a lower ceiling but I think his value as a glue-guy on the Wolves would be more valuable than another star. Again, if I am drafting 6th or find a way to trade down, this is who I hope the Wolves are targeting.

11-Skal Libassiere

Star Potential: Medium

Bust Potential: High

Shooting: Low

Defense: High

I instinctively am intrigued by Skal and what he could be. I personally will be very interested to see how he ends up in whatever situation it is he ends up in. He has ‘project’ and probably ‘D-league’ written all over him. But as a team that can take risks at this point, I don’t mind seeing if he can be turned into something that meets the potential many believed he had prior to this one season at Kentucky. A lot will come out about Skal over the next few weeks.

12- Henry Ellenson

Star Potential: Medium

Bust Potential: High

Shooting: Low

Defense: Low

Offensively, Ellenson can stretch the floor and score in a multitude of ways. He is also a very good rebounder. The reason I have him so low is because he can’t defend the 4 or 5 and definitely won’t be able to be on the floor if teams go small, as trends are moving towards in the league. I also am not convinced he is more than a role player in the league. I can’t justify taking a player with that ceiling on the top 10. I don’t think he will be a starter on a winning team in the NBA and so currently, I am fairly low on him. Sorry Minnesota faithful, I hope the hometown kid doesn’t play for the Wolves. Plus, can you seriously trust a Minnesotan who played in Wisconsin? That was a joke…

13- Devonta Davis

Star Potential: Medium

Bust Potential: High

Shooting: Low

Defense: High

Davis is the prototypical project big that comes out of the draft. He has Myles Turner/ Bobby Portis type of potential. He could very well surprise people when he gets to the league. Could be a serviceable big man.

14 – Furkan Korkmaz

Star Potential: Medium

Bust Potential: Medium

Shooting: Medium

Defense: Low

18 years old and from Turkey. Has a solid offensive game and could be a draft and stash option. I like the very limited amount I have seen from him. He is a late lottery candidate.

 

15 – Demetrius Jackson

Star Potential: Medium

Bust Potential: High

Shooting: Medium

Defense: Medium

He is a typical point guard and actually pretty good. The reason I have him so low is because he isn’t a combo guard and right now for the Wolves, that puts him behind Rubio and Jones. He is an athletic freak, which is exciting. I would love to see him as a Spur.

16 – Marquese Chriss

Bonus here. He is moving up draft boards mainly because there aren’t many power forward prospects.

 

Thank is all for now. Again, this will be adjusted after the lottery and through workouts. These boards change so quickly up through the draft and will look even crazier a few years from now. So sometimes it’s not about how right these rankings are, it is about how wrong they will look years from now.

Who the Wolves take will be an entirely different question. A lot depends on where the Wolves end up. The Wolves could trade down and they could somehow win the draft lottery again. Tell me, how crazy would that be??

Until next time.

The Timber Rebuilder.

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