Jonathan Isaac. That is the goal.
I think I spent more time thinking of cool titles about Kris Dunn starting than I did thinking about what to put in here. Partially because titles with ‘Dunn’ in it is fun to think of, but mainly because what Kris Dunn needs to do to succeed is simple. Some titles I thought of:
It’s Dunn time to start! (A little slang used here)
Rubio starting is Dunn
Playoff hopes are Dunn
Getting the Job Dunn
What needs to be Dunn?
Which is your favorite? I didn’t want to use any… Yet. Anyways, back to this post.
Dunn has been handed an opportunity on a silver platter. Ricky Rubio is out ‘indefinitely’, which usually means a long time. This news came after Rubio met with the doctor. He will now meet with a surgeon, which could mean Rubio is out longer than we even originally expected.
Thibodeau brought Dunn in with the idea that he is the point guard of the future. Rubio was also not traded because he certainly gives the Wolves the best chance to win now. Rubio is needed on this team still if they plan to make the playoffs this year, but an early injury could become a blessing in disguise.
Dunn is in a very different situation than the Wolves’ previous rookies. Wiggins and Towns both were expected to produce immediately. Dunn is in a position where he does not need to be the first, second, or even third option offensively. He can slowly work himself into the offense. A luxury KAT and Wiggins didn’t really have.
What does Dunn need to do as a starter to be successful then? Like I said earlier, it is very simple. It should not be a surprise at all. But it is important for it to happen.
First, Dunn needs to do what he is known for and that is defense. I think Dunn has been impressive defensively in the first two games. He looks like a pest that disrupts the opposing team’s offense from getting set up. He gets the occasional steal from pressuring the ball. If he can master this, it will be the basis of his success. He will build confidence in his game at the NBA-level from his defense. It will also wear out his opponent when they need to play defense on him. It is easier said than done though. He will face the likes of Mike Conley, Chris Paul, Damien Lillard and Russell Westbrook multiple times early on this season. While Dunn won’t shut these guys down, he can try to contain them a little bit. It will certainly accelerate his experience.
Next, Kris will want to focus on not turning the ball over. This will be his backbone offensively. As a rookie, learning to not make mistakes will translate into him doing a ‘good job’. Luckily for Dunn, he has guys that he can rely on offensively to produce. He just needs to get them the ball and limit any mistakes. Kris Dunn will need to simplify his game and stick to the basics offensively. His baskets will come. Teams will game plan around forcing Dunn to beat them as he is most prone to making mistakes as a rookie.
If Dunn can play solid defense and limit mistakes offensively, his offensive game will come around. He should try to make the open shot. But mainly, he should try to take high percentage shots as much as possible. Dunn’s bread and butter was scoring around the rim in college. He can continue to do that and it will open up the floor for the Wolves. If teams see Dunn as a threat scoring at the rim, he will be able to penetrate and dish pretty easily.
With Rubio out, the opportunity for Dunn and the Wolves is great. I am optimistic still about what happens this season. An injury this early benefits the team in that Dunn will get heavy experience that could be valuable later in the year. Developing the backup point guard in that there isn’t a huge drop off will make a difference if the Wolves are fighting for a playoff spot. Dunn is being groomed to be the starter regardless, but this will certainly benefit the Wolves if Dunn becomes a strong bench contributor later this year when Rubio returns.
The Timber Rebuilder.
It is that time of the year again, the NBA is coming back! The Wolves’ measure of success this coming season will be simple. Playoffs. Make ‘um and the season was a success. Don’t make ‘um and the season didn’t meet expectations. Right?
Tom Thibodeau takes over one of the most exciting young teams in the last decade after a year sabbatical. The Wolves young core of Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine will be supported by veteran Ricky Rubio, rookie Kris Dunn, supporting young core pieces Shabazz Muhammad and Gorgui Dieng, and a slew of journeymen/ veterans that align with Thibs’ basketball philosophy.
The analogy I love using for the Timberwolves is ‘removing the training wheels.’ The training wheels were the veterans the team had on the roster that the Wolves could lean on when the rookies couldn’t balance things out. When LaVine wasn’t doing well as a starter, Tayshaun Prince and Kevin Martin came in to help him. Kevin Garnett was also there in the ear of young Karl-Anthony Towns throughout the season. When the Wolves needed an extra push, the veterans stood in.
That won’t be the case this season. Ricky Rubio is as veteran as it gets on the Wolves. Rubio has started the most games than any other player on the entire roster. Andrew Wiggins will have to rely on his extensive experience of starting for two seasons. As you saw in our previous piece, we believe Wiggins needs to step it up this season on the defensive end of the floor for the Wolves to be successful. Karl-Anthony Towns, while gaining tons of national media attention, will absolutely have a target on his back around the league. He isn’t going to be able to slide under the scouting report-radars after the season he had. Then there is also Tom Thibodeau. Thibs was the most sought-after head coach this offseason, and that brings high expectations. Thibodeau will have to forgo a season of experimentation and ensure that the young Wolves can execute seamlessly.
Like any kid who learns how to ride a bike without training wheels for the first time, there will be bumps and bruises. You learn how fast you can turn and how to speed down a hill. The Wolves will have some bumps and bruises, especially early on. I may come off as pessimistic for the coming season, but in reality I am looking at this season as a transition period.
Every season has its ups and downs, so barring any major changes or injuries; we can expect a rotation that looks like this:
C- Dieng/ Aldrich/ Hill
PF – Towns/ Bjelica/ Payne
SF – Wiggins/ Rush
SG – LaVine/ Muhammad
PG – Rubio/ Dunn/ Jones
In looking at the rotation, the Timberwolves have a good list of point guards. I do believe we will see more of Tyus Jones this year. The Summer League MVP can be a secret weapon off the bench to help with 3-point shooting. The reason I feel that we will see Jones more is because I also believe we will see Kris Dunn play shooting guard this season. The Wolves are weak on perimeter depth, especially defensively. Dunn will take away from the Wolves ability to shoot, but will be able to add to the perimeter defensively. Jones and Dunn could see more time on the floor than Rubio Dunn in my opinion.
My concern is still on the perimeter. Zach LaVine without a solid backup is going to be interesting. I think Shabazz should be playing more of the 3 or even a small ball 4. It will be important to monitor Muhammad this season because his game changes a little bit every year. He has talked about learning more on Defense just being around Thibodeau and that he has a desire to start. It will be interesting to see where he fits in this season. He has a chance to be the leading scorer off the bench.
As of now, Brandon Rush seems like the natural fit coming in off the bench at the small forward position. Rush is going to have an opportunity to be a part of the rotation. There is a good chance that Bjelica could see some time at the 3, depending on matchups. That said, small forward depth is going to be concerning, if Shabazz is playing shooting guard.
Up front, the Wolves are good for now. A four-player rotation of Towns, Dieng, Bjelica, and Aldrich is great. All have a skillset that is valuable and needed. I am high on what Dieng will be able to do with Thibs. Dieng should get better defensively and seems to be adding a mid-range jump shot that will be able to stretch the floor. The coaching staff is high on Nemanja. The former Euroleague MVP is in better shape this season and ready for a breakout season. It will be interesting to see if Thibs using Belly like he did Mirotic in Chicago.
The Wolves still have Pekovic on the roster who is out for the year already. There is a 15th spot that will in all likelihood be Rasual Butler. It will likely change over the course of the year as injuries occur.
Keys to Success
Who would’ve ever thought that a DJ Khaled reference would still be relevant when previewing a season? Here are our keys to success:
As a good friend of mine reminds me all the time, Tom Thibodeau has never coached a team that wasn’t in the top 10 in defense. There is no doubt in my mind that for the Timberwolves to really make it over the hump, they will need to be a top 10 defensive team. The team certainly has the physical assets on the roster. Karl-Anthony Towns was very good defensively last season. Gorgui Dieng and Cole Aldrich are solid rim protectors. Andrew Wiggins has the length and athletic ability to be a terror on the defensive end. Ricky Rubio and Kris Dunn could also be incredible perimeter defenders. The key will be learning to play team defense and covering up for the liabilities on defense like Zach LaVine, Shabazz Muhammad, and Bjelica. Being a top-10 defensive team should translate to being a playoff team. But going from about the worst in the NBA to top 10, especially with the inexperience the Timberwolves have, is a rarity.
3- Point Shooting
Another area in which the Timberwolves were terrible in last season, second-to-last to be specific. The Wolves are relying on organic growth in their 3-point shooting, which is fairly risky. The way that the Wolves get better is if their perimeter players can carry the load from outside the arc, which wasn’t the case last year. Andrew Wiggins and Ricky Rubio were bad. The Wolves added another guard who can’t shoot this offseason in Kris Dunn. That said, Brandon Rush was like adding a mini-band aid to the problem. The kind that Nelly used to wear below his eye in the 90’s. To make matters worse, Tom Thibodeau isn’t a huge advocate of the 3-pointer, but has indicated that his philosophy has changed a bit.
Wolves are as good as Wiggins and LaVine
I feel good about where Karl-Anthony Towns is as a player. If he didn’t improve this offseason, he would still be a net-positive player on the floor. While defense and 3-point shooting are factors that the team need to do better as a whole, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine have the most pressure on them to produce this season. Both entering their third seasons, they both have a lot to prove around the league. Are they just incredible physical specimens or are they legitimate NBA talents? Throughout this piece and my overall criticality of the Wolves, a lot of it is around Wiggins and LaVine. I have beaten a dead horse on the Wiggins-development end, but the same has to go for LaVine.
LaVine has an opportunity to be one of the best inside-outside threats in the league offensively. I can live with Zach being below average defensively. But for LaVine, scoring efficiently and using the playmaking skills he developed will be what defines success. LaVine can score in bunches. But can he do that night-in and night-out? If LaVine is a guy who can average 17 points a game and shoot over 37% from three, he will solidify himself as the third-head on the three-headed monster for the Wolves.
The bench needs to be a factor
One thing that Thibodeau did this offseason that will turn out to be genius is seeking out cheap contracts for veterans that can add depth to a young team. The additions of Cole Aldrich, Jordan Hill and Brandon Rush helped add front-court depth, toughness, and veteran experience. I am a fan of signing players who were bench warmers of good teams, especially if they had a niche. Aldrich was one of the best rim protectors in the NBA and nobody knew about it. Brandon Rush was an incredible three-point shooter, but because his skillset was redundant on a great team, he rarely got playing time.
- Kris Dunn will be good, but will not be a serious candidate for Rookie of the Year
- Gorgui Dieng will not come to an extension agreement this season and will earn a max contract this offseason. He will start most games for the Wolves.
- Ricky Rubio will increase his trade value this season. We will see improvement in his jump shot.
- Shabazz Muhammad will work his way out of Minnesota in hopes for a starting role. Whether that is via trade mid-season or a contract this summer.
- Karl-Anthony Towns is an All Star, makes All-Defensive team and All-NBA team.
- Andrew Wiggins is a replacement for the All-Star game (getting really bold here)
- The Timberwolves end their 12-year drought and make the playoffs as a 7-seed!
Although I am still skeptical, I do think the Timberwolves can make the playoffs this season. Things will have to go right. It will require the trio of Towns, Wiggins and LaVine to really step up. My predictions are a fence-swing, especially with Wiggins being an All-Star. But I think the Wolves go into the All-Star break above .500 because someone outside of the three-headed monster. The biggest reason why I feel the Wolves have a successful season is because I truly believe Ricky Rubio and Gorgui Dieng will thrive under Tom Thibodeau. That will be the difference maker.
I think the Wolves go 43-39 this season. A huge jump from 29-53. I would’ve felt better about this prediction if Kevin Garnett was still on the roster. Regardless, the young pups will lose the training wheels and it will be the beginning of something special. I can’t wait!
Hey Wolves fans – long time no talk! Its been an exciting offseason in which the amount of hype for the Timberwolves has be inconceivable . Why you may ask? Well, the Wolves have one of the most talented rosters in the league with one of the best coaches in league making a return after a year sabbatical. The Wolves have back-to-back Rookies of the year, a two-time dunk champion and a few other former first-round picks all acquired in the last three years. Their talent-level and potential are amongst the best in the league and they are all incredibly fun to watch.
Die-hard Wolves fans have followed Karl-Anthony Towns and Zach LaVine develop a nice chemistry over the summer while working out. Fans have enjoyed watching Andrew Wiggins workout videos in which he is adding to his game and having interviews where he says the Wolves will make the playoffs. Wolves fans saw Kris Dunn dominate in the summer league and then Tyus Jones lead the team to the finals with a Summer League MVP. Wolves fans followed Coach Thibodeau win a gold medal and Ricky Rubio win a bronze medal. Wolves fans were also encouraged that most of the team did not participate in International play this summer to improve their games, namely Wiggins, Dieng and Bjelica.
There is a lot of reason to get excited. The Wolves are finally getting noticed. There will be 19 nationally televised games this upcoming season and the Wolves will finally play on Christmas! Gambling experts in Vegas also have set the Wolves as having the fourth best odds to winning the Western Conference! How can you NOT buy into the hype, right?
Kevin Pelton ran his RPM Forecast though and put the Wolves 11th in West with 37 wins on the season. The forecast doesn’t account for coaching changes, which should probably get the Wolves a few more wins in general. This may be the other end of the spectrum with the forecast, having the Wolves behind the Nuggets and Thunder this season. Although the forecast is fairly accurate most seasons, it is just that, a forecast. The forecast had some ridiculous predictions like the Jazz being the 3rd best in the West, Thunder at 6th and Nuggets at 8th.
There is no question, this is the most excited I have been in a while for a season as a Timberwolves fan. I also understand that it is a process. A question I think all fans will need to ask themselves is ‘Will I be disappointed if the Timberwolves don’t make the playoffs?’ If you answered yes, then you may need to check your hype-o-meter. Take a step back and understand that the road to success is typically a bumpy one. Here are some factors to take into consideration:
The Wolves are still young and inexperienced.
The Timberwolves are putting all of their hope in a bunch of guys who can’t rent a car without an underage fee. The talent and potential is there. The issue lay in the mental game. The pup-pack (nickname I am now using instead of saying KAT, Wiggy, LaVine, Dunn, and rest of the young wolf pack) have their heads held high making playoff predictions because they don’t know better. They haven’t face calamity yet. They haven’t played regular season games that had real meaning yet. In all likelihood, the Wolves will end the season with a starting lineup that has 5 guys who have never played a playoff game. I don’t have the research, but history would likely prove that teams like that don’t make it too far. The logical progression in my head is that the Wolves compete for a playoff first, before making it officially. Ideally, this season plays out similar to how the Jazz’s season played out last year.
There were no major acquisitions.
Cole Aldrich. Jordan Hill. Brandon Rush. In a summer where money was more available than tech help in India, the Wolves couldn’t get a major free agent to sign. All three players will add value and depth to the team and they are all low-risk contracts. That is an absolute win. The Wolves didn’t ‘overpay’ anyone, which is good. But the Wolves also didn’t add any talent that would help the Wolves win more games. They struck out multiple times with guys that could’ve come in and help at least make a significant improvement to the roster. Because of this, the Wolves improvement really relies on what Coach Thibs can do in his first year and the progression of the young guys.
Thibs needs time to teach his system.
A good segway. I think there is good certainty in that the Wolves young guys are going to improve. There isn’t the same certainty in that the team picks up on Thibs’ scheme in the first season. The experience factor kicks in again here where it may not be the easiest to just pick up a new coach’s schemes and run it flawlessly in game situations. There will certainly be growing pains. Literally and figuratively with Thibodeau. Especially with the pup-pack. It may feel like a rookie year all over again for guys who don’t have a high basketball IQ. Thibodeau does not have an active veteran who understands his system that can help implement it like a Jimmy Butler or Luol Deng would’ve been able to do. It is going to take some time to learn. Luckily for the Timberwolves, they have time.
The only major change has been some media hype.
Man – the bandwagon is starting to feel like a freight train. Fans from all over are loving the Timberwolves, including the National Media. As OG Wolves fans, we are welcoming them all with open arms. But the anticipation to see KAT and Wiggins play for Tom Thibodeau is beginning to make people become a little over-ambitious. This Wolves roster is much more of a journey than it is a destination right now.
Injuries could be a problem.
Prior to last season, the Wolves were constantly having injury problems. Insert Arnie Kander. In his one season, he helped Ricky Rubio stay fairly healthy for a season and we even saw some run from a Nikola Pekovic, who should probably be retired. Now, exit Arnie Kander. Insert Tom Thibodeau. Thibs is known to make his guys work. Not a criticism. But it is something I think most Wolves fans will monitor this season. Injuries can set any team back. So just something to point out.
Other teams in the west got better too
The Wolves got better but there are other teams that really got better. The Jazz got a consistent starting point guard in George Hill who fits in perfectly there. The Blazers and Pelicans added some nice talent. I expected the Grizzlies to fall off but they ended up keeping Mike Conley and adding Chandler Parsons. If they can stay healthy with Marc Gasol, they could be pretty good. There are going to be 8 spots for probably 11 teams that have a legitimate shot at competing at them.
The Timber Rebuilder
With all the Rubio trade rumors, draft hangover, and free agency frenzies, the biggest news that will impact the Timberwolves long-term occurred and many people disregarded it. While it is not huge portion of the team, Glen Taylor sold a 5% stake to Chinese Business man Lizhang Jiang. The 35 year-old owns a sports marketing company in China and is the first Chinese NBA owner. This is huge news for a few reasons:
- The 5% stake valued the Timberwolves at being worth $1 Billion.
- The NBA market in China is Huge.
- Glen Taylor finally sold a minority-stake in the team.
To put some perspective on this, the Timberwolves valuation of $1 Billion puts it above what the Atlanta Hawks sold for at $780M, the last team to be sold. The Clippers were sold at $2B, which really increased the values of NBA-franchises around the league.
The Timberwolves are poised to be marketable in China and not just because the team is exciting. Zach LaVine has visited China in consecutive summers building his brand there. His popularity there is huge due to his back-to-back Dunk Championships. In Karl-Anthony Towns’ portfolio of publicity strides after his Rookie of the Year campaign, he recently came back from a China visit himself. If both players grow their popularity as players like Kobe Bryant exit, their brands could be among the strongest with the help of a Chinese owner.
While the 5% stake is not huge, it is an indication of where things are headed. Glen Taylor will absolutely look to sell the team in the near future and if one of the minority-owners decides to keep riding the wave in Minnesota, they could certainly buy out majority-stake in the near-term. With an increasing cap and revenue coming from broadcasting, the price tag on the franchise will certainly grow. Couple that with a young and exciting Wolves team that is not only marketable but international. Adding a player from China eventually will likely be something that is in the best interests of all the owners of the team.
Lizhang Jiang, also partial owner of a Spanish Soccer team, has encouraged bringing Chinese players over to Europe. The Rockets, who own the largest market share in China of any NBA team, just drafted Zhou Qi which seemed like a smart marketing move on their end. Certainly it will take a Chinese player on the roster in the future to grow the Timberwolves’ market share in the future.
Over the next few seasons, all of the young pups will be working to develop their personal brands, in and out of the US. Andrew Wiggins is already referred to as Maple Jordan and Towns has spent time developing his post-retirement career in broadcasting. The opportunity to couple their brands with a booming Chinese basketball economy could be a perfect storm. There will also be opportunities for the Timberwolves to potentially play some regular season games in China.
Being a marketing student/ fanatic, this is a dream come true as a Wolves fan. The Timberwolves could develop into a team that is nationally broadcasted regularly and seen as a decent free agent destination. Hopefully it will draw people to not only talk about the weather when a player ends up in Minny.
The Timber Rebuilder.
P.S. I hope the new owners push for new jerseys. We need it.
What a dramatic night. I spent the draft taking in it all in with Wolves faithful at the Target Center for the Draft Party. While I was pretty excited about the Kris Dunn pick, most of the Timberwolves fans in attendance were shocked and wanted Buddy Hield. I, again, have indicated multiple times that I am not fond of Hield and would’ve preferred Murray if Dunn wasn’t the pick. So what happened last night? I would love to tell the story through tweets:
The Wolves draft Dunn
KAT is happy with his new toy
Trade rumors and #WojBombs start flying around
The Wolves get super close apparently to trading for Butler
Thibs and KAT talk about a trade. Maybe this was the breaking point?
From a high-level, the Wolves left the draft with one of the top prospects and one that can help immediately. Kris Dunn may be the best two-way player in the draft. His defensive prowess fits well with Thibodeau’s coaching style.
Rightfully so, there were a couple teams that had serious interest in acquiring Kris Dunn. This was never a secret. The Sixers were drooling over Dunn for weeks and then the Bulls emerged as a trade candidate. It sounds like the Sixers and Wolves had talks that included Ricky Rubio. The Bulls and Wolves had even more serious talks that included Zach LaVine. The Wolves were in a position to acquire either Nerlens Noel or Jimmy Butler. The actual details will never be known. The rumors were that LaVine was breaking point for Thibs in which he would not include him in the deal. I don’t think this is entirely true because not only is Butler far better than LaVine, but it would’ve conveniently opened up a starting position next to Wiggins for Butler.
The fact is, we cannot confirm the trade rumors of last night and we don’t know if someone will be traded. Many Timberwolves fans are upset for one reason or another but I invite you to keep the following in mind. The Wolves got better. They added depth and another asset. That is better than where the Wolves were on June 22nd. Something I pointed out that is interesting is that the value of Kris Dunn seems to be more valuable than the value of the 5th pick. This is influence and psychology working its wonders on the world. These are all good things.
Keep in mind, the state the Wolves are now in is fluid. There is more clarity, but trades can still happen. What is keeping many Timberwolves fans upset is that Tom Thibodeau is threatening to move the last remaining remnants of David Kahn’s era from the roster. Many Wolves fans and fans of the NBA have grown to love Ricky Rubio, for good reason. Rubio is one of the better perimeter defenders in the league and among the best playmakers. Unfortunately, everyone in the world knows he can’t shoot or score even. This makes him seem a little worse than he might be. Rubio influenced more wins maybe than anyone on the Timberwolves roster last year because he absolutely makes the players around him better.
Now the Wolves have Kris Dunn who has many of the same strengths and weaknesses as Rubio, who is already established. What do we make of the situation now? It requires a deeper look at the situation. A few points to make.
- Drafting Kris Dunn was a Win-Win for the Timberwolves. Why? The Wolves added the best ‘two-way’ player in the draft. This means, he either stays on the team and we benefit, or we trade him and we benefit. Many are crazy about Dunn around the league. Including Tom Thibodeau. As mentioned in the Press Conference, the marriage of a good two-way player like Dunn with Thibs could be amazing. It will be exciting to see what happens between the two.
- Can Rubio and Dunn co-exist? Not in the long term probably. But in the short-term? Sure. What’s better than having Ricky Rubio on your team? Having Ricky Rubio’s skill set on the floor for 48 minutes. I don’t think Thibs is comfortable handing the keys over to a rookie at point guard, which is why it makes sense that Rubio isn’t traded immediately. Dunn is also not a sure thing, like any draft pick. He will need to adjust to the NBA’s speed and toughness. That will take time.
- Rubio will have to improve to keep his job. Ricky has secured his spot as the starting point guard since he was a rookie. Since then, he has struggled to improve drastically.
- Rubio and Dunn are both trade assets. One will eventually move. And when they do, they will likely net the Timberwolves another solid asset. Who knows when either is traded but Rubio for Noel and maybe Luwawu (someone I have a man-crush on) could make sense. The Wolves still desperately need a starting power forward.
- While many believe Rubio and Dunn have redundant skills, they do have some pretty significant differences. Rubio is the ultimate team player and has one of the best assist-to-turnover ratios in the league. Although Ricky has his faults, Rubio is a proven and consistent commodity. Dunn on the other hand has the potential to be a far better scorer and better shooter than Ricky. Dunn also can finish around the rim much better than Ricky. Rubio has relied on his scream while he attempts a layup to go to the line for most of his career. Dunn has the ability to play above the rim and get to the free throw line, something Rubio will not be able to do.
- The Wolves didn’t address one of their biggest needs: shooting. While many are panicking, that shouldn’t be the case. Taking the best player available is a strategy that works most of the time. Expecting a rookie to immediately satisfy a need is a recipe for disaster. The Wolves did add something else they needed though, bench scoring.
- Staying on the topic of shooting. The Wolves will need to address this still through free agency/ trade and the development of their players. The Wolves will need LaVine, Wiggins and Towns to improve their shot to at least remove the team from the bottom of the rankings. Philosophy is also an important factor. Sam Mitchell was not someone who set players up for threes, which could be a factor in why the Wolves struggled so much. Thibs is clear on needing shooting and should address when training camp starts.
- From Thibodeau and Layden’s perspective, a trade last night may have been difficult. Especially moving Zach LaVine or Ricky Rubio. I am sure Thibodeau wants the opportunity to at least coach these guys. LaVine has the potential to really become a special player, which trading away so early may be a poor choice. Sometimes, not making the trade is the smarter move as well because typically the deals that weren’t done are mostly forgotten. How many remember the rumors of potentially moving Derrick Williams in a package for James Harden?
There is still an entire offseason that needs to play itself out. We forget we are only five days removed from the 2015-16 season. Dunn has said in his interview that he can learn from Rubio and looks forward to playing behind him. While many joke about the David Kahn days when Thibodeau said Dunn and Rubio can play together, it does seem possible. While shooting may be an issue, Rubio and Dunn could be effective in short stints. Defensively, they should shut down backcourts and offensively Dunn would benefit from Rubio’s playmaking ability.
Certainly, there will be more to come. Please let us know your thoughts and share!
The Timber Rebuilder
It is finally here. Four days after the NBA Finals. It is like the season never ended. It has been stressful to say the least. Not too many moving parts so far and yet we have debated for months.
One thing is for sure, whoever is picked by the Timberwolves tonight will forever be remembered as the 5th pick of the 2016 NBA Draft. Most fans remember their feelings towards a player from when the Wolves drafted Ndudi Ebi 26th overall in the 2003 draft to when the Wolves took Karl-Anthony Towns as the 1st Number 1 pick in franchise history.
One thing that I am reminded of at this time in the year is Flip Saunders. I came across this tweet of just Flip enjoying life right before the 2013 draft.
As the Wolves approach the draft, which is hours away, the rumors are swirling. The Wolves have just added Andy Greer to their coaching staff per Woj. There were rumors of the Wolves being interested in Kenneth Faried, which reminds me of how Thad Young fit in with the Wolves last year. I do think Faried would be an ideal energy guy for Thibs, but if the trade includes moving the 5th pick, I don’t think it is worth it.
Thibs has enlightened us by letting us know that the Wolves value shooting in this draft. To many, this eliminated the idea that Kris Dunn could be the pick, while I believe that isn’t the case. The entire league values shooting right now. It is absolutely a valid concern and the Wolves do need shooting, but I don’t think it eliminates Kris Dunn from being the Wolves pick.
There is a decent chance the Wolves trade the pick today. I don’t feel prepared for that scenario since #WolvesNation has been debating between four guys for the last month. Who is better? Why? Just hours before the draft, I feel like the top four is fairly clear, in the form of personal preference. Here it is:
- Dragan Bender
If Bender is available, you have to take him. There are rumors he could fall to 7, which is mind blowing. Bender is certainly a project. But he is a project worth taking on. The Wolves are in a position where they can swing for the fences. If Bender doesn’t work out, the Wolves future is not dependent on his development. They don’t lose much. They also have a significant need for someone to play along Towns long-term. The reason Bender is the most intriguing is because of the skill set he holds. Bender has a solid stroke from outside already. Pairing that alongside Towns and Wiggins will spread the floor and allow the Wolves to penetrate & dish. He can defend and protect the rim as well. How terrorizing would it be to have two big men who can defend and shoot? Bender has also shown that he can pass and handle the ball decently for his size.
Bender happens to also be the youngest player in the draft. If Bender is groomed under Thibs and can be given time to grow with the young Wolves, he can be in the perfect setting to develop. It helps that the Wolves have a decent amount of international players who can help mentor Bender. I don’t believe Bender is that far away from being able to contribute. He needs some experience, weight and confidence. But if he can build those three things up until the Wolves make the playoffs, I think they add a prospect who, I believe, becomes more valuable that Zach LaVine for this team.
Often times the youngest player in the draft usually has success in the league. It is something to keep in mind. The last few off the top of my mind are Devin Booker, Aaron Gordon, Giannis, and Andre Drummond.
2. Kris Dunn
After Bender, I don’t think any of the remaining players are absolute future starters for the Wolves. More than likely, they all end up being solid players off the bench and can step in as starters in the future. The reason I prefer Kris Dunn is because I believe he can come in and compliment Rubio from the beginning. Dunn can play behind or next to Rubio for short stints. Dunn also has a skill set in which he could eventually challenge Rubio for his spot a year or two down the road. It is still an unknown as to how Rubio fits in the grand scheme of things. In the event that Rubio gets hurt or wants out of Minnesota, I would feel comfortable with Dunn as the starting point guard of this team after this season.
The reason I also like Dunn is that I believe he is simply better than Murray and Hield. Dunn possesses an all-around skill set that inevitably translates great to the NBA. His ability to score, play-make and defend makes him a net positive player to have on the floor. If he develops a 3-point shot, he could end up being one of the best players in this draft. If you want to read our thoughts more on Dunn, we had an article here about him last month that was well received.
3. Jamal Murray
The Murray and Hield debate is something I run every day in my head and finally feel comfortable sharing it. I take Murray over Hield as someone who, I believe can become a solid scorer in the league. I think the McCollum comparisons are disrespectful to CJ, but if Murray becomes a poor man’s version of him, I will be happy. I worry about his ability to ever defend in the NBA, which is why I like Dunn more. We also talked about why we like him here. I won’t be upset if the Wolves take Jamal Murray.
4. Buddy Hield
#WolvesNation is crazy about Buddy Hield. I am not as convinced still. Buddy also can’t defend and don’t think he can thrive as a bench player, which is inevitably what is role would be with the Wolves. He requires a high usage and I don’t see him getting it with guys like Towns, Wiggins, LaVine and Shabazz who require the ball to be effective. The only positive of taking Hield for me is that my expectations would be much lower than anyone else we could take.
If the Wolves keep their pick, it will be one of those four. Otherwise I will be shocked. I think there is a 40% chance that the Wolves trade the pick on draft night. The Wolves clearly have goals of making the playoffs this coming season. We mentioned earlier in the offseason that the Wolves should just trade the pick and think that it still makes sense. The Wolves could acquire a veteran who could speed up the process as well as maybe a mid-1st round pick. The Jimmy Butler rumors were just a smokescreen that was probably done to raise the value of the pick in a draft where everyone is trying to trade out.
There are four teams to watch on draft night that have three 1st round picks: the Sixers, Suns, Celtics, and Nuggets. The Wolves may be able to work out a deal that allows the Wolves to acquire a veteran and a later pick. If somehow the Wolves end up moving down, I still love Timothe Luwawu and Wade Baldwin. I don’t know if either worked out for the Wolves, but I will dream. The Wolves do happen to love Ben Bentil, which will be something to watch for in the late 1st round and 2nd round.
For the next few hours, I will be watching for #WojBombs and hoping something crazy happens. As a life-long Wolves fan, especially during the rebuilding phase, the draft is our playoffs. Let’s add another brick to the Rebuild!
The Timber Rebuilder.
PS – I will be at the Wolves draft party. Tweet us if you are going! @timberrebuilder
Game 5 of the NBA Finals was sprinkled with Timberwolves rumors. Every however many minutes we would see ‘the Timberwolves were actively shopping the 5th pick for Jimmy Butler’ scroll across the bottom line. There would be a ton of fun tidbits that Tom Thibodeau used to coach Jimmy Butler, things that were obvious. The rumors started swirling nationally once everyone got a notification from ESPN on their phones about the rumor and this tweet:
We’ve heard the rumors before. We have seen the photoshopped pictures of Jimmy Butler in a Wolves uniform. This was nothing new. Some may say that ESPN is struggling and they finally got the rumors weeks later. But in the age of the internet, I find that hard to believe. The internet has been the most reliable source of speedy information ever. Just ask Steph Curry’s new ‘Emergency Room’ 2s. The way this story came out, it felt planted.
Over the last couple weekends, I have been absent due to being in class. I was taking a condensed-MBA course that met three times from 8am-5pm called ‘Persuasion & Influence.’ Of course, after taking a class for that long consecutively you not only see everything through the lenses of the class, but you believe everything has do to with the material you just learned. While in the class, I was eager to apply it to everything I could, especially basketball. Well this is one of them. One of the principles of influence, a pretty basic one, is contrast. What the principle says is a way to influence people is through the contrast of one thing to another. There are experiments that prove this to work. One example is having three buckets, one hot, one room temp, and one cold. If you dip your hands in the hot and the cold buckets and then bring both hands into the room temp bucket, your senses will be confused. While both hands are in the same bucket, the hand that was in the hot bucket will feel cold and the hand that was in the cold bucket will feel warm. The contrast principle is used a lot in sales. When selling something expensive, a lot of times a sales person will say in comparison to what.
After that quick lesson in influence, I feel like that is exactly what is happening here for the Wolves. The league knows that the 5th pick will not net Jimmy Butler. Something needs to be added. But what is happening is that the Wolves are essentially raising the stock price on that 5th pick. The 5th pick inherently seems more valuable than it did before the rumors started swirling. Who would ever think that Buddy Hield or Jamal Murray plus another prospect would be worth one of the best two-way players in the league?
This is how the Celtics have gotten into the mix. The Celtics have more assets and a better pick than the Wolves. And a team that just made it to the playoffs, it seems that naturally they would be more inclined to make a deal with the Bulls. If the Bulls were to make Butler available, the first team that would get a call is the Celtics. The only reason they wouldn’t be because they wouldn’t want to send Butler to another team in the East, but when you’re rebuilding that doesn’t really matter. At the same time, chances of the Bulls dealing with Thibodeau are slim to none. The only way the Bulls do a deal with Thibs is if they can ruin his life. The rumors around the deal have mentioned Wiggins plus the 5th pick, which is just about what could ruin Thibs’ life. So unless something crazy happens between now and next Thursday, Jimmy Butler will not be a Timberwolf.
So why? Why did the rumors get thrown out there when it did? Now it’s time to do a lot of speculation. What we do know is the following in terms of draft workouts:
Three tidbits on guys the Wolves will look at in the 5th slot. Jamal Murray was working out in MN the day the rumors came out. Kris Dunn expressed that he will only workout against Ben Simmons, Ingram, or Jamal Murray. Also Buddy Hield hit 85 of 100 threes at a Celtics workout. These are the facts/ credible rumors. Dragan Bender is also coming to work out in MN on Thursday.
Now it is time to take a trip behind the smokescreen. It is time to speculate. There is certainly going to be a lot more that will happen in the next week and a half but for now, we will try to make sense of all this.
First, is there a link between the timing of the rumors and Jamal Murray’s workout? What does this say about Murray’s workout? Was it bad it enough that the Wolves want to move the pick? Is he not worth it there? Could it be an act?
Then there is the Buddy Hield workout with the Celtics. Did Buddy Hield just raise his stock with hitting 85 of 100 threes? Is he a serious candidate for the 3rd pick in this draft? Were the Wolves secretly trying to get him?
I don’t think there is enough there on the Murray or Hield front to speculate that the rumors had to do with them. I do however believe it had to do with Kris Dunn though. Why? Well first, the Wolves were using the contrast influence principle to raise the value of the 5th pick by attaching an All-Star to it like Jimmy Butler. Why you may ask? Because the Celtics or the Suns will want to get equal or greater value now for the 3rd or 4th pick. Now a deal around the troubled Jahlil Okafor doesn’t seem as appealing for the 3rd or 4th pick. The reason that is important is because the Sixers reportedly like Kris Dunn and desperately need a point guard.
Kris Dunn is doing his part as well. After refusing to work out for the Suns and Celtics, he came out and put up conditions that are near impossible to meet, especially a week before the draft. Teams are absolutely going to be concerned about his injuries and how he matches up against other picks in the 3-8 range. The reason Dunn can do this is because he has less to lose. He doesn’t want to go 3rd or 4th. He would be happy to go 5th where he has an opportunity to grow with one of the most exciting franchises and eventually compete for a starting spot if Rubio is to get hurt or demand a trade. The Wolves do have serious interest in Dunn. If he is on the board at 5, I have to believe he is the best player available from the Wolves perspective. The only person I think the Wolves truly consider over Dunn will be Dragan Bender.
If Dunn is the Wolves’ guy behind closed doors, they are putting themselves in a win-win situation. The Wolves are truly interested in Jimmy Butler. If the Bulls bite on a deal, the Wolves are automatically playoff contenders. If not, the value of the pick went up without doing anything. And as the pick’s value is going up, the stock of Kris Dunn is going down as he is an unknown. It will be interesting if this ends up being the scenario that works out because all season long there were jokes about why the Wolves never took Steph Curry in the 2009 NBA Draft. The reason was because Curry refused to workout for the Wolves. It is risky business to draft someone who never worked out for you. The Wolves have already seen Dunn in LA and probably have more information on him in the background.
I am aware there are a lot of Buddy Hield and Jamal Murray fans in Wolves Nation, but the forecast is showing Kris Dunn more and more…
The Timber Rebuilder.
The community has spoken! In our previous poll, we were able to get the top two, which was no surprise. Ben Simmons won both our page and Twitter polls. He won the page poll with 39% and Twitter with 45%. Brandon Ingram gets the second spot by getting 31% of the page polls for the top spot. In the Twitter poll, Kris Dunn got 23% of votes and Ingram got 19%. The page poll received way more votes, where Dunn came away with 7.9%. So the Community Big Board looks like this so far:
- Ben Simmons – F – LSU
- Brandon Ingram – F – Duke
Now it gets interesting. Who is the 3rd best player in the draft from the Wolves perspective? Who do Wolves fans believe is the best after Simmons and Ingram? I really believe this will get mixed reviews. So please share your thoughts.
To start the conversation, Upside & Motor talks about who would be the best fits for teams. Check it out here:
They point out how Dragan Bender would be scary for the Wolves to land, which I agree with. Bender’s potential alongside Towns and Wiggins could provide something very scary for the rest of the league. A 3-and-D big man who has guard skills could make the Wolves starting lineup a matchup nightmare. The Wolves also have the appetite for the risk with Bender. The Wolves don’t need a rookie to step in immediately and help. Bender can learn to defend from Thibs and be the future starting power forward, something the Wolves desperately need.
Then there is the daily debate within the Wolves community. Who do you take if Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield, or Jamal Murray are available? From what I can gauge, there is a three-way split between the Wolves fandom. Do Wolves fans feel strongly enough to place one of them as the 3rd best player available? This is the channel to express that!
Also including here is Jaylen Brown. Throughout the season, Brown has been in the top 4 category. He is an athletic freak who screams project. The Wolves could take that on and develop nicely as another weapon for Ricky Rubio.
Please vote and share! I will close this one after two days so we can keep it moving!
A couple weeks ago we entertained the idea of adding Kris Dunn to the Timberwolves roster through the NBA draft on June 23. This post will explore Jamal Murray, freshmen guard out of Kentucky. Nothing clever I can think of for the title on this one, so just going to jump into it.
The thing that makes Jamal Murray considered a lottery pick in the draft is his scoring and shooting ability. He had the highest scoring average of all freshmen with 20 points per game. He is also a tremendous three-point shot. He shot nearly 41% from three this last season. His shot is fluid and can release in a multitude of ways. The fact that he is a Freshmen and contributed this much to a team like Kentucky goes a long way. Kentucky has a reputation for producing great NBA players.
If you didn’t know, floor spacing and the catch & shoot are things the Wolves truly struggle with. Matter of fact, they are among the worst in the league. See this post by Nylon Calculus. While the Wolves can choose between Buddy Hield and Jamal Murray to space the floor, Murray is the catch and shoot talent. Murray has the potential to come off of screens and spot up for a 3-point shot like a J.J. Redick. Murray shot 56% when coming off of screens. He will also have the chance to hang in the corner and spot up threes when Wiggins or Towns are double-teamed and when Rubio is looking to penetrate & dish. Thibodeau loves the corner three and it will likely be Murray’s first task to master that shot, if drafted.
For anyone being drafted in the 5th spot, the hope is that they can come in immediately and contribute. That doesn’t necessarily mean they need to be a starter. The only starting spot without much competition would be the power forward position, but there aren’t talented enough power forwards in this draft to take that spot. A guard like Jamal Murray though would need to come off the bench and score. They would need to add to the depth of the team and have someone other than Shabazz Muhammad as the only scoring threat. Murray can absolutely be that. Murray has a high BBIQ and is very aggressive. He is mature beyond his years on the court. It will be interesting to see how that translates in the NBA.
There are some significant issues that Murray has though. The first is his ability on defense. There is a good chance that Murray will never be an adequate defender in the league. He lacks the athleticism to stay with guards in the NBA. This can be an issue if Tyus Jones is on the team. Having scrappy guards who can defend seems to be important to Thibs.
While Murray has the size to play either guard position, he does struggle playing the point guard position with efficiency. He averaged more turnovers than assists and seems to play naturally off the ball. He also has some problems with finishing around the rim, something that doesn’t get easier at the next level. He could get time to develop behind LaVine in his first few seasons in this aspect.
It seems that typically many people will mention Jamal Murray and Buddy Hield in the same sentence. It is important to note that Murray is three years younger than Hield. That is the span of a rookie contract. By the time Murray is the age of Hield, his rookie option will be decided on and he will be a fairly known commodity. The three-year gap could amount for something. Hield did should 5% better in FG% and 3P% on one more three-point attempt per game. Buddy Hield is a better fit for a team looking to win now. It almost seems like the Boston Celtics would be a great fit if they decide to keep their pick.
While the Wolves will be shooting for the playoffs this season, they did earn the 5th-worst record in the NBA with a fairly healthy roster. So the Wolves are hoping to make a significant jump that will be reliant on the improvement & development of their current personnel and on Coach Thibs implementing his schemes flawlessly in his first season. Realistically, the Wolves are somewhere between the 7th-worst in the league and the 7th-seed in the West. The long-term goal for the young core is to win a championship. If that is the case, it may make the most sense to draft a guy that can be molded into that group when making a decision between two guys (Murray and Hield) who have a similar skill set. By taking Jamal Murray, the Wolves get a three-year grace period for a guy who can carve out a role on the team in that time.
In the short term, Murray isn’t doing much. He will need to learn to defend, how to play the point guard, and finish around the rim. He may see time when the Wolves desperately need to spread the floor or need someone to come off of screens to catch-and-shoot. Thibs is not crazy about the ‘baptism by fire’ rule of getting rookies a ton of minutes to develop. He will get them developed in the ways he can. Murray will probably find himself in the corners on the offensive end and move his way up. It may be a couple of years before Murray actually sees significant minutes. It could be a good thing nonetheless. The Wolves may look to bring in a couple free agents who can help boost the Wolves into a winning franchise in the time Jamal Murray develops.
With Thibodeau around, it is clear that Murray will not see a lot of minutes until he can at least hold his own on defense. That may not come until year two or three. But when he does learn to defend, he will serve as a great change-of-pace scorer off the bench or alongside LaVine or Wiggins. It could also could at a time where Andrew Wiggins is seeing some stretch-four in a couple of years. Murray will be able to run his defender off the court like a young Reggie Miller or Ray Allen. He may never be great in that sense but he could definitely bring attention away from Wiggins and Towns.
All in all, if the draft goes Simmons, Ingram, Dunn, Bender, I would first look to trade the pick. My ideal would be to move down to get Wade Baldwin or Timothe Luwawu. If there are no takers for the 5th pick, which seems more and more likely by the day, the decision to pick between Jamal Murray or Buddy Hield will be a reality. I am siding with Jamal Murray because he is better in the catch-and-shoot, is more versatile in what positions he will be able to play, and is three years younger.