Year: 2015

Decoding Sam Mitchell

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The Timberwolves are already half-way to their win total from last season and it is only the beginning of December. So if comparing this season to seasons past, its been a significant improvement. There are things you can attribute to coaching, roster moves, team chemistry, and to player development. But just because things have improved does not mean that couldn’t be better. The Wolves have won some games they shouldn’t have (sweeping the Hawks and winning in Miami) and lost games they probably could’ve won (twice against the Magic).

Part of the tug-of-war between the front office and the coaching staff is always one of player development vs the outcome this season. The beauty of having a GM-Coach like the role Flip Saunders had is that there is absolutely a balance. Although the Wolves were terrible last season, its clear that Wiggins and LaVine developed a lot over the course of the season into this one and the Wolves were able to identify that the ROI (Return on Investment) on Anthony Bennett wasn’t worth it. Wiggins & LaVine look like they are among the best rookies from last season because of this balance and the Wolves are now better positioned to be a contender in the future. Now with Mitchell in his position, he is fighting to prove he is worthy of being a coach passed this season.

Mitchell biggest criticism thus far which is probably evenly split between Wolves fans is Karl-Anthony Towns’ minutes. He has seen a dramatic decrease in minutes and has struggled in the limited minutes after having a historic start to the season for the rookie. Gorgui Dieng has seem more minutes and to his credit, has produced nicely. But many believe that Towns does give the Wolves a better chance to win and should see any minutes in the fourth quarter. Over the last five games, Towns has averaged 22 minutes a game and on many occasions hasn’t played in the 4th quarter.

Mitchell has come out and finally spoke on the minutes issues for Towns and says he doesn’t want to burn him out and says its part of the learning process. Trusting the process can be rough though, just as the Sixers. This was the first time Mitchell actually spoke about it, as there were many questions as to why Towns was not playing and the Wolves continued to lose in close games. Towns did take the high road and said his minutes in College prepared him for this. Sam Mitchell is trying to win games, which is understood. But you have to believe, Karl-Anthony Towns playing in the fourth quarter a little more would probably help that cause along.

The next criticism against Mitchell has been his handling of another young prospect, Zach LaVine. Mitchell started training camp naming LaVine the starting shooting guard and then moved him to the bench as the back up point guard. After a slow start, it was clear LaVine was most effective as a shooting guard and not effective at the point. Once it was realized the Wolves couldn’t afford Tayshaun Prince in the starting lineup, the struggling Kevin Martin was moved in to replace Prince. LaVine currently has a PER of 18.2, which is an improvement from last season 11.3 PER. LaVine also has the 4th highest Win Share on the team at 1.1, where Martin has a .5 WS and Prince with .2. LaVine’s Box Plus/Minus has improved leaps and bounds from last season, where he has a BPM this season of 2.2, where it was a terrible -4.5 last year. Kevin Martin has a BPM of -4.3 right now. Long story short, not only has LaVine improved, but he is playing much better than Martin or Prince this season.

The concern in all of this worries fans that followed Mitchell in Toronto. In case you didn’t know, Sam Mitchell was awarded Coach of the Year 2006-2007 but was the coach who allowed Kobe to score 81 points and also failed to develop a lot of key pieces while there, namely former number 1 pick Andrea Bargnani. Bargnani was restricted on minutes early on and never built the kind of relationship you would want out of your top draft pick and your head coach. He also failed to develop many draft picks who seemed to have the potential to succeed in this league. Many players left Toronto disgruntled, which led to a poor season and his termination soon after.

Lastly, the rotations Sam Mitchell is using are questionable at best. Staggering and balancing bench players with starters is a way to keep the level of talent on the floor at least even while you rest your best players. Mitchell has played his bench through long and important minutes through the 4th quarter which usually puts the team in a deeper deficit than it needs to be. It seems like substitutions are more reactionary than tactically decided. It also seems that even if a guy is playing well, they still seem to not get the minutes, like Shabazz Mohammad. It is just difficult to see the logic Mitchell is using to decide who is on the floor.

It is important to point out that there are things Sam Mitchell is doing right too. Mitchell is a players’ coach. He seems to be able to relate to players and understand them. Mitchell also seemingly has a good relationship with KG, in which he probably serves as the most important person to Garnett in the organization at this point. But on the court, the Wolves have clearly improved as a team. They have moved away from the bottom of the barrel in the league defensively, to at one point one of the best teams in that category this season. There have been woes offensively where the team has shot below 40% a couple of times and are not leveraging their young by struggling in fast break points.

The Wolves are also playing with a grit that they lacked in previous seasons. They don’t give up after they go down by 10. They stay close at the end of games. And it doesn’t feel like we are going to lose every game within 5 like a few seasons ago with Rick Adelman. Its hard to tell if this is because Garnett is inspiring the young guys or if Mitchell is motivating these guys to play hard, it does deserve praise. For this alone, its clear Mitchell is not warranting any sort of dramatic firing. But again, this team’s number one priority is development and what the franchise is banking on. So the criticism is warranted.

The truth of the matter is this Sam Mitchell will likely coach out this year. The Wolves are not in a position to win a championship at the given moment and the team is performing at about their expectations. I also believe Glen Taylor is going to try and figure out how to move forward on what happens with the GM & Coaching void Flip left behind. What will be said, the hope is Sam Mitchell is not the Wolves coach the 2016-17 season. The development of the key pieces on this roster is far more important than Sam Mitchell’s wizardry on the bench. I don’t believe the Wolves as an organization can afford Mitchell as head coach another season, especially with the talent pool of available head coaches.

Wolves Bench Gives Reason to Excite

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The Wolves find themselves at 8-8 16 games into the season. There have been many ups and downs thus far. Lots of attention has been placed on the young Wolves’ performance, namely that of Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Zach LaVine, rightfully so. Andrew Wiggins is putting up All-Star-Like scoring numbers. Towns has started the season in a historical fashion. Injuries have plagued Ricky Rubio early in that he has missed 5 of the 16 games. The Wolves have been the 2nd best team on the road, only behind the undefeated Warriors. They have also started slow in only winning two games at home.

All of that aside along with the talk about Sam Mitchell’s questionable rotations, the Wolves look like a decent team all of a sudden. You have to believe that the Wolves are doing some things right. One thing that is going unseen though is the bench play of the Wolves. The Wolves have the highest scoring bench in the league averaging 44.4 points a game. The Wolves bench also leads the league in minutes playing 1770. The Wolves bench is also the most offensive efficient bench and second in defensive efficiency. These numbers are surprising, being that the Wolves have historically had terrible bench play since the ‘Zoo Crew’.

So how is this made possible? First, there are a few fringe starters sitting on the Wolves bench. Zach LaVine has been playing in place of the injured Rubio when he is out and is continuing to prove that he can play in this league. LaVine has finally been able to stay in front of some guards as he had shown in the Hawks and Kings games. His passes and shot selection is still questionable. He also still struggles to get through picks. But he is proving to be a very reliable scorer, as he has become the second leading scorer on the team with 14.4 points a game. He has blossomed when in the starting lineup, but against the Hawks he was the leading scorer off of the bench with 18 points.

After that, the play of Shabazz Muhammed has been coming around to be the super efficient scorer he used to be. He was able to score 15 points in 15 minutes and is showing that he can shoot the 3 effectively again, bringing his 3pt% to 33% on the season after a slow start. He still remains fairly inconsistent and isn’t getting enough minutes to get in a rhythm, but he still remains a factor.

As much as Gorgui Dieng has bothered me this season, he is putting up some decent numbers as of late and is rebounding the ball well. It seems as if he has managed to lose some basketball IQ as his career has progressed, but he is developing himself into a good rotation player and maybe a starter eventually. He is winning the trust of Sam Mitchell and taking minutes from Towns as this point.

The Wolves then get help all-around from the likes of Adrien Payne, Andre Miller, Rudez, and Prince. The Wolves will get an even greater boost when Bjelica returns from his injury because he was the lone wolf early on in the season that seemed to be producing off of the bench. After a slow start for the Wolves in which leads would go to die when the Wolves bench entered the game, the last few games is showing how deep this team can be by actually extending leads. It will also be interesting when Pekovic makes his return, whenever that is. It would be ideal for him to play limited minutes and now he is in a position where the Wolves don’t need more than that out of him when/ if he returns.

While I don’t agree with Sam Mitchell’s minutes distribution and rotation, the Wolves have scraped their way back to .500. I personally don’t think an entire group of bench players should be on the floor at once, but it has worked. Many players have stepped up to get a three wins in a row, and many of them are guys off the bench. In the three games the bench has carried the team, Towns has struggled to get his game going. Its not a time to panic. The Wolves are winning and Towns seems to be the type of player that can manage adversity well. And in the event that he can’t, he has many veterans around him to guide him.

The question remains on what to do with the starting lineup nonetheless. Kevin Martin has looked less than mediocre, and even worse in the starting lineup. Many have to believe a move of LaVine to the starting lineup could occur sooner rather than later, being that Rubio can be decently healthy. Shabazz Muhammed could also be an option, but I get the feeling Sam Mitchell is not interested in that.

The Sam Mitchell critics will need to keep quiet as the Wolves have strung a few wins in a row with his bizarre rotations. It does, in fact, feel good to be back at .500. The Wolves play the Clippers in LA on Sunday before a few games at home.

A Surprisingly Pivotal Point in the Season

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The Wolves enter a game against the winless Philadelphia 76ers at 5-8 on the season, after a fast start. The Wolves find themselves in a position where a few games will likely define what their season will look like. They could dig a big enough hole in which it will be to difficult to climb out of later in the season or they can hang around .500 enough to make a push later in the season. The Wolves currently sit 22nd in offensive efficiency and 15th in defensive efficiency. It has been clear through the first 13 games the Wolves win games when the defense is stellar and struggle when they can’t hold their opponents to under 100 points. It has been also evident that the 2nd half is not where the Wolves prevail, giving up leads in games to the Hawks, Magic, and Pistons.

Entering the game tonight against the Sixers, something’s gotta give. Either the Sixers win their first game of the season or the Wolves win their first game at home. If you recall, the Sixers won their first game of the season last year against the Wolves after losing 19 straight, which was really the beginning of the end for the Wolves, who would essentially give up on the season and end with the worst record. The Wolves are 1-6 in the last 7 games and definitely need to turn things around if they intend on being competitive this season or it becomes another year of development.

For the Wolves, a game against the Sixers is exciting for the fact that Karl-Anthony Towns goes up against Jahlil Okafor, two Rookie of the Year candidates. Two franchises have taken different approaches to rebuilding as well, which will be interesting to see over the next few years how they pan out. The Sixers have taken the approach of just accumulating as many assests as possible, whether it is young players or draft picks, and hope they pan out, all while minimizing salary on the team. The Wolves have taken the mentorship approach of surrounding young guys with veterans in which they are also trying to compete with a developing roster.

Sam Mitchell continues to figure out how the team works and made an adjustment where Kevin Martin enters the starting lineup in replace of Tayshaun Prince. This moves Andrew Wiggins to the small forward position. This also sends the message that the Wolves are looking to improve their offense while taking a hit to their defense. I am a firm believer that Kevin Martin and Andrew Wiggins are a duo that does not bode well for Wiggins and his production as Martin takes a lot of his shots or for the team in general. Other than Gorgui Dieng, Wiggins’ net points per 100 possessions is worst when paired with Martin on the floor. It would make most sense to start LaVine at shooting guard or maybe even Shabazz Muhammad at small forward, but Sam Mitchell seems to not prefer those options still. Mitchell believes LaVine still needs to play point guard and talks of Shabazz as a starter haven’t really surfaced. Wiggins and Muhammad have only seen 53 minutes on the court together this season.

Regardless, the change indicates that change needed to happen. It will be interesting to see how many minutes Prince still gets, as he has shown that he isn’t as great of a defender as he was expected to be. The Wolves will face the Hawks, Kings, Clippers, Magic, and Blazers in the next 5 games which will be an opportunity to measure themselves against some more middle-of-the-pack teams, talent-wise. Rubio has mentioned that this is not how a winning team plays, so it will be interesting to see how the Wolves approach these next few games. The Wolves definitely need to experiment a little more with the rotations and sets on the court.

Let’s see tonight though. Our hopes are Towns gets more involved in the offense by getting more shots, there are crisp picks set, and passes aren’t happening cross court. Wolves are coming off of a practice, which Mitchell mentioned being an issue as not having enough. Hopefully the Wolves can come in and win a game they should win.

The Timber (re)Builder

Wiggins & Towns Are So Fun to Watch and Should Only Get Better

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Wolves fans are really lucky. If you appreciate basketball at all, Wiggins and Towns playing for the same team is a treat. Besides the point that they are the last two number 1 picks and the hype that surrounded them prior, these two are absolutely talented and have a lot of basketball ahead of them. The amount of potential this duo has on both ends of the court is incredible. Many Wolves fans have had the pleasure to watch them develop a chemistry. This really hit me in the final few seconds of regulation of the game against the Magic. Down 93-91, Andrew Wiggins tied the game with a clutch drive to the basket. Super clutch.

Then Karl-Anthony Towns would make a game-saving block at the buzzer to send it to OT. Then, as if it were planned, the two celebrated together.

Sequences like these is why basketball seems to be such a poetic sport.

Towns has been phenomenal thus far and has exceeded his already lofty expectations. It seems like after every game there is a new stat about Towns that says he is ‘the first player to do X in first Y number of games since Shaq/ David Robinson’ or he is the ‘youngest player to do X in a game since [insert awesome young player here]’. More to come on his potential. But his basketball IQ has been showcased where he looks like a veteran for the most part. He also plays with a natural passion for the game and is a very polished individual. You can’t help but cheer for him.

Wiggins got out of the gate slow this season and there were a lot of questions. He has finally figured it out a little bit and has 19 or more points in the last 7 games, which is a career-high for him. He is beginning to be ultra-aggressive in attacking the rim and scoring at will. He finally feels like he will lead the team in scoring night in and night out. He has had some incredible dunks in where he just posterizes people and is taking smart shots. The best thing he has done thus far is he gets to the line quite a bit. He could improve his FT%, but that could be an easy fix eventually. Overall, he isn’t showing he is a difference maker within the advanced stats realm, he is passing the eye-test that he could arguably become an All Star, even this season.

Wiggins and Towns have played 308 minutes together already, and their tandem is much more efficient with Rubio on the floor with them. In the 308 minutes together, nothing stands out that they should be paired together quite yet. But there is potential there. Their games seem to compliment each other. There is still room for improvement but defensively, both guys can be anchors. Towns is arguably already a top 10 defensive center and Wiggins has shown flashes of shutting down players on the perimeter. They both have shown that the pick & roll could be effective in them running it, but at this point KAT seems to be running the pick & roll effectively with anyone.

For these two to truly help fill some voids on this Timberwolves team, it will be important for them to both be able to consistently hit 3-pointers. The Wolves have historically been a poor 3-point shooting team and have essentially gone passed the tipping point of number of young prospects vs number of role players/ shooters. If the Wolves are to become a contender, the 3-point shot needs to be a part of the arsenal in Towns & Wiggins’ games. Towns has shown that he can be a positive contributor on the floor all-around, but Wiggins at this point is looking to become a glorified scorer. Taking these things into consideration, trying to determine what these two become by playing with each other will be very intriguing.

The tweet above says (I know, very credible) that said Towns has been Shaq with a 3-point shot. He may not far off, although we haven’t seen the 3-point quite yet. That said, Towns has already been a double-double machine and can block/ alter shots fairly consistently. The numbers aren’t too far off either. I expected Towns to struggle with foul trouble a lot more, but he has faired well against some decent talent inside. Towns could be an incredible inside-outside offensive threat that provides top 10 defensive-anchoring who could also sprinkle a couple threes and passes. To me, sounds a lot like a Shaq who can shoot. Scary.

Wiggins is turning into a glorified scorer. And that can be absolutely fine in the future. It seems like Towns does enough where Wiggins really only needs to score. Again, the 3-point shot development is key for not only Wiggins as a player but also to stay relevant as a player in a league that is moving further away from the basket. Next, Wiggins will need to utilize his athleticism to be a perimeter stopper. He is beginning to also show the tenacity that he has been consistently criticized over. A glorified-scoring 3 and D guy? Well isn’t that the ideal player?

If these two guys can reach this full potential, they certainly look like they could be the best duo in basketball in a few years. Watching them grow together might be the most exciting thing to happen in this franchise’s short history. Of course, there are a million factors that this wouldn’t play out perfectly, like injuries, egos, salary caps, and the other 13 roster spots. But its definitely fun to speculate from a fan’s perspective. And since they are young, we will get to speculate for a long time.

Let the McHale Homecoming Speculation Begin

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mchaleHouston Rockets head coach Kevin McHale was fired this morning after the Rockets got off to a 4-7 start after making the Western Conference Finals last season. JB Bickerstaff, University of Minnesota alumnus & former Wolves assistant, takes over as interim head coach.

McHale found himself out of a job after the Rockets had a players-only meeting and were embarrassed by the Boston Celtics. From the sounds of it is that McHale lost control of the team and they could not play defense. This comes after McHale received a contract extension last season.

This isn’t a Rockets blog. But it is important to discuss Kevin McHale. Can’t say McHale is an amazing coach. But also can’t say the exact problem was him. Lots has gone on recently. James Harden has shot the ball terribly along with many other Rockets. But the blame came on McHale and he is gone. Immediately, many Wolves fan saw a member of the ‘Country Club’ available and made the linkage. Will he come back? If so, in what capacity?

One has to imagine McHale will take some time away from the game. He has experienced a difficult last few years. He lost his daughter in 2012 which triggered an emotional meeting with KG after a nationally televised game as seen below:

mchale_kg

You also have to imagine McHale took the loss of his Gopher teammate Flip Saunders hard, regardless how they parted ways professionally.

The Wolves seem to be fine with Milt Newton and Sam Mitchell for now, being that they are only 11 wins away from matching last season’s total. But the Timberwolves do seem to be a Country Club with the return of Kevin Garnett as a mentor and Sam Mitchell as the current Head Coach. Glen Taylor also has been interested in selling the team and usually only works with people he trusts.

That said, it is unclear to know what the relationship is like between Taylor and McHale. You would believe Taylor would reach out to McHale. In what capacity? Its unclear. But there has to be a possibility there. Kevin McHale is a huge factor in the development of Kevin Garnett’s post game. It would be interesting to see McHale work with Karl-Anthony Towns. McHale coached the Wolves in random stints that weren’t good. He could potentially even join an ownership group with Garnett in the future, that could be the successors for Glen Taylor. I can’t imagine him joining eventually as a GM but I believe he could be a consultant sooner rather than later.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. He was just fired and nothing may come of it now, but in the future…. you never know…

Wolves won last night in Miami and take on one of my favorite young teams tonight, Orlando Magic.

Why the Wolves Can’t Win Without Rubio

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NBA: Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves
Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

 

It has gone on for a couple years now. The Wolves are 9-55 (.140) without Ricky Rubio over the last two seasons and are 11-17 (.393) with him in the lineup. Its clear that the Timberwolves struggle to win games without Rubio on the floor. But it is important to understand why.

Ricky Rubio is one of the most underrated defensive point guard in the NBA. While the Wolves defense has improved this season, a big reason for it is having Rubio on the floor. Rubio lacks speed but he plays the passing lanes well and is long enough where opposing point guards don’t have an easy time running the offense seeing over him. Opposing point guards are scoring and creating more against other point guards on the Wolves. Even if you don’t believe Rubio is a great defender, anyone else who plays point guard for the Wolves are very bad on the defensive end, so he is an improvement.

He makes players around him better on both ends. There is a reason why fans want LaVine to never play point guard outside of the fact that he can’t thrive there. The opportunity to play alongside Rubio could really elevate his game. The sample size of those two playing together is small, but they clearly want to play together and have decent chemistry when both are out there. But if you look at the different between the offensive rating of the Wolves with Rubio and Without, it is night and day. With Rubio on the floor, the Wolves have an offensive rating differential of +10.2. Without Rubio on the floor, it is -8.9. So there is an overall differential of +19 that Rubio has an impact on when he plays. Also, Rubio leads the team in +/- by a long shot, with a +6.3 per game average.

He is competitive too. Ricky comes from a winning background. He loves to win. He plays great defense in the clutch and also shows the ability to make good decisions offensively. If there is something Rubio, KG, and KAT share, it is the passion to win games. Having his competitive spirit on the floor is enough to make a difference on whether our team is out there competing or just looking to put points on the board.

The ball moves when Rubio is in the game. Over the last four losses, there has been multiple times that open guys never get the ball. Rubio encourages ball movement and in the last four games, most of the offense has been isolations and creating off of the dribble. When Rubio is on the floor, the Wolves Assist% (percentage of points made with an assist) is 64.5%. When Rubio is not on the floor, it is 52.3%. This is significant in that the Wolves without Rubio are scoring have of their baskets through someone creating it individually.

If the Wolves want to compete this season, it will only be if Rubio is healthy. It is scary to see him miss four straight games without much warning. There were a lot of questions on why Mitchell was not playing him more than the 30.8 minutes per game he has been playing. His overall health has to be a long-term concern for the Wolves being that his minutes have declined over the length of his career. It will be interesting to see if he plays against the Heat tonight. If he doesn’t, there is a good chance we see another loss. What we are learning very quickly though is that regardless of potential, production, or talent, Rubio may be the most valuable player on this team when it comes to the win column. The only way the Wolves can compete this season and not let it be another rebuilding year will be if Ricky Rubio is healthy.

November 16th Week’s Wolves Highlights: Rubio, KG, & More

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The Wolves have dropped four straight games and are currently 4-6 on the season. The schedule for the upcoming week through the 22nd is:

Nov 17th: Wolves @ Heat 6:30pm CST

Nov 18th: Wolves @ Magic 6:00pm CST

Nov 20th: Pistons @ Wolves 7:00pm CST

Things To Watch:

  • Ricky Rubio has missed 4 straight games (Wolves are 0-4) with a knee injury that became a hamstring injury. Ricky has practiced today and its still up in the air if he will play in Miami on Tuesday.
  • Garnett is just the 5th player in history to log over 50,000 minutes in the NBA. KG is only 105 minutes played to pass Jason Kidd for 3rd all time. With Garnett averaging 16 minutes per game, he is about seven games away from passing Kidd on the list.
  • Towns has averaged over 15 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 blocks through his first 10 games. First player to do that since Tim Duncan in 97-98. Towns blocked at least 3 shots in 6 straight games but has only had one block in the last three games.
  • Zach LaVine continues to start at point guard and is averaging 21 points per game. He has hit four threes in the last two contests. He has also been playing some shooting guard towards the end of games, which should make people happy.

Week  Record Prediction: 1-2

The Zach LaVine Experiment

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Dec 26, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Zach LaVine (8) runs the ball down the court during the second half against the Denver Nuggets at Pepsi Center. The Nuggets won 106-102. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Entering his second season, Zach LaVine is a national attraction due to his stunning performance in the 2014-15 Dunk Contest. LaVine is a young, athletic freak who can be a highlight reel in every game. While expectations were quite low for the 20-year old after being drafted 13th in the 2014 draft and didn’t start for UCLA in his single season there, opportunities arose through multiple injuries and a youth movement last season. LaVine showed flashes of amazing and terrible.

Last season, LaVine averaged 10.1 ppg but over the final 18 games of the season averaged 18.7 ppg, 5.4 apg, and 4.9 rpg. He managed to score 37 points against the Warriors where he made 6 3-pointers. Statistically, he managed to have a solid season. LaVine came in without much experience or identity outside of his athleticism and personality, so he was a blank canvas for Coach Flip Saunders. He primarily played shooting guard making a living off of scoring in transition and making the occasional open three in college but in the NBA he would be asked to play point guard. It was something that would be much of an experiment because he offered a height advantage against point guards and matched their weight. At the beginning of the season, it was probably expected LaVine wouldn’t play much behind Ricky Rubio or the newly acquired Mo Williams. But injuries and trades happen. The opportunity presented itself. Before we knew it, the 19 year old Zach LaVine was the starting point guard.

Zach LaVine as the point guard started with Flip. LaVine proved he was an electric player that could give you highlight reel dunks, but his decision making has been questionable throughout his career. He takes midrange shots very early in the shot clock without passing a lot, which is probably the most inefficient thing to do in basketball. 29% of his shots were between 16ft and the 3-point line, accounting for the largest amount of his field goal attempts. He turned the ball over enormous amount as well, about 2.5 times a game last season, making his assist-to-turnover ratio really close to 1. That is bad for a point guard, and anyone really. Lastly, his defense was terrible. He gets stuck behind picks, is too weak to guard shooting guards, and can’t stay in front of point guards.

But there was hope. He showed he has the ability to score, athleticism that makes him difficult to guard, and a decent shooting stroke that teams have to defend. His ability to get to the line and finish around the rim made him valuable on the offensive end. The other thing that is impressive about LaVine is his demeanor. He has a wonderful work ethic, as he has visibility put on weight this season. He has a love for the game and confidence in his ability. He has shown that he can hit some big shots and doesn’t back down from a challenge.

As Sam Mitchell took over, he gave the starting 2-guard role to Zach LaVine in the preseason and said it was his position to lose. Unfortunately, he lost it rather quickly and was benched by the time the season opener came along. He looked extremely inefficient as a starter and just couldn’t keep up. So as the season started, LaVine found himself in the backup point guard role where he has also struggled early on in the season, but not as bad as the preseason. He still lacks the fundamentals, basketball IQ, and defensively ability to really be effective. But he has shown promise in some games this season.

Zach played what many called the best 11 minutes of his career (which I personally disagree) against the Hawks where he scored in double figured and ran the offense effectively as the Wolves pulled out to a 34-point lead. He then was benched for giving up that lead in the second half. He started the first game of the season last night in a loss against the Hornets where he showed signs of greatness and terribleness with 20 points, 8 assists, 5 rebounds, and 8 turnovers. He made some amazing plays to the basket but then also took terrible shots and made some terrible passes.

But at the end of the day, Zach LaVine is unfortunately the 2nd best point guard on this roster. The Wolves will have to live and die by his play. While as some point it may make sense to play him at shooting guard, right now the way he is going to see minutes is by playing point. What will really help his game is when he will be able to play alongside Rubio, who has made everyone play better when he is on the floor this season. But instead LaVine is on the floor with the ball-stopping Kevin Martin, the struggling Shabazz Muhammaed and Dieng, and the star rookie-vet Bjelica.

This season and next will truly determine Zach’s career projection. The Wolves will likely need to trade Kevin Martin in order to open up minutes for LaVine at the shooting guard position. LaVine will need to immediately stop taking mid range jumpers unless they are wide open and start playing better defense. He also will in time naturally add body weight so that he can compete physically in the NBA. There should come a point where LaVine will force himself to the line when he is on the same physical level as most of the players in the league. But the most important that I believe is being overlooked on LaVine is the 3-point shot. If he can develop a good consistent 3-pointer, which he is more than capable of, he will force himself onto the floor for the unique ability to get to the rim and shoot the 3.

I am a true believer Zach LaVine has the capability to be an All-Star in the NBA but the concern now is his relationship with Sam Mitchell. My worry is that Mitchell isn’t going to place LaVine in a position to succeed. While Prince is here to mentor Wiggins and KG for Towns, LaVine seems to be the forgotten child on the roster. LaVine has an incredible amount of upside, it is just beginning to look like it may not be fostered appropriately in Sam Mitchell’s coaching style. As mentioned earlier, this season and next will be defining for Zach LaVine. He will determine in the next two seasons his career projection. He could end up anywhere between a mix of Russell Westbrook athletically mixed with Jamal Crawford’s skillset, or a combo guard version of J.R. Smith.

In assessing the Wolves current inventory of players, he serves as an insurance policy to Ricky Rubio and capable of playing big minutes. Tyus Jones seems to be like the future backup point guard if Ricky does remain healthy. As for shooting guard, it depends on what Andrew Wiggins becomes. Shabazz Muhammed is also still defining himself in which position he will play. But LaVine could grow naturally as a combo guard for the Wolves as roles are defined in these next two seasons. The hope would be he plays more shooting guard than point guard when its all said and done. But for now, we are left with a guy playing point guard who has all the potential of a superstar without the fundamentals or IQ.

Bullet Dodged. Wolves Somehow Beat Hawks 117-107

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Phew. What an emotional roller coaster. The Wolves took on an Eastern Conference leading Atlanta Hawks on the road. It was easy to overlook the young puppies if you are a veteran Hawks team.

wiggins_hawksThe Wolves came out hitting the gas pedal and never looked back in the first half. The lead got up to 34 points for the Wolves with everything clicking for Wiggins, Martin, Towns, Rubio, and LaVine. All the shots were falling and the defense was very tough. But you had to think a young Wolves team on the road would lose some of that lead.

But it got out of hand. The Wolves would score 42 points in the 2nd quarter and then give up 42 in the 3rd quarter. The momentum was gone by the time the Hawks pulled within 20, then 15, then 9 by the end of the 3rd. As a Wolves fan, it was clear, it was going down the drain quickly.

Behind a couple timely threes from Bjelica, the Wolves would keep their head above water. After the Hawks took the lead and the Wolves looked doomed, Andrew Wiggins showed some Kobe-Level nastiness and took the game over offensively. Wiggins would hit a few impressive And 1s from inside and outside. He sealed the deal by scoring 8 of the final 12 points for the Wolves. Defensively, Karl-Anthony Towns ended up anchoring the team and stopped the flood of Hawks points.

Wiggins ended the game with 33 points, tying a career-high. It was the first time he would score more than 30 points in back to back games in his young career. Karl-Anthony Towns had another double-double with 17 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 blocks. The young duo again carried the Wolves to victory with help from LaVine, Martin, and Bjelica off the bench.

If the Wolves lost, this post would be completely different. The feeling would be completely different. But the Timberwolves completely collapsed in the 3rd quarter. They couldn’t complete a pass. They couldn’t get the ball across half court. This game also proved that Andre Miller probably shouldn’t be playing after blowing a breakaway layup. I continue to not understand Sam Mitchell’s logic. The Wolves were falling apart in the 3rd quarter and he refused to call a timeout. After the Hawks came within 10, he decided to start Andre Miller in the 4th. That further dissolved the lead. The Wolves needed Rubio and Towns out there as soon as possible. It is as clear as day the Wolves play better with those two playing alongside Andrew Wiggins.

The Wolves played great in the first half. Everything went in. It also helped that the Hawks couldn’t make a shot. The game should’ve been lost but there was a heroic effort from Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns and a lucky start. Mitchell again proved he struggles in managing a game. It got out of hand and the flood gates never slowed down. Although the Wolves move to 4-2 and are undefeated on the road, Sam Mitchell dodged a major bullet here. He would’ve had to ask a lot of questions. Thankfully, we rejoice.

Overall good win for the Wolves. We can pretend nothing happened here for now.

Dethrone the Prince, Shabazz Should Be Starting

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Shabazz-Muhammad-e1420744407354

Not entirely sure if you can dethrone a prince, but go with it for the title’s sake. Sounds cooler.

The Wolves are now 2-2. The Wolves lost a nasty one to the Miami Heat. Fans everywhere are screaming what is in the world is wrong with the rotation? The major problems were that the starters combined for 29 points and Ricky Rubio, arguably the best player on the team, played half the game. The Wolves may not have the talent the Heat have, but Sam mitchell has completely mismanaged the Wolves thus far.

The Wolves have two veterans in the starting lineup, Tayshaun Prince and Kevin Garnett. At this point, Garnett will likely remain in the starting lineup for defensive and mentorship purposes. Prince is placed in the lineup for his experience and defensive ability. There is also the experiment of running Wiggins at the 2, which is viable. In general NBA terms, if a player can defend a position, they can play it. But there are more viable options that could be starting instead of Prince. Kevin Martin was a starter last season and is the team’s leading scorer. Zach LaVine was promised the starting spot at the beginning of the preseason and after his poor performance, he was taken out. Then there is Shabazz Muhammad, who had a breakout season last year and mainly was used as energy off the bench.

A lot of times teams want to present matchup problems in the starting lineup, which is likely why Wiggins is in the starting lineup. For matchup problems to occur though, the other wing player needs to require attention on the defensive end. Unfortunately, Tayshaun Prince requires as much attention as a middle child in a family of 10. Thus, its time to take him out. Its early and the sample size is small, but the experiment has failed. The starting lineup is unable to compete with other teams offensively unless Karl-Anthony Towns or Ricky Rubio are scoring over 20 points. It doesn’t help that Andrew Wiggins has struggled to get going offensively either. The Wolves need a scorer in the starting lineup and there are three waiting on the bench.

Shabazz allows the Wolves to still offer matchup problems. The Wolves want opposing 2-guards to defend Andrew Wiggins so he can shoot over them or beat them in the post. Shabazz poses the same threats if an opposing shooting guard tries to guard him. If an opposing 2-guard were to defend Tayshaun Prince, the Wolves probably still wouldn’t run the offense through him. Zach LaVine would be a wash against a shooting guard and just isn’t at the level of consistency to start. Kevin Martin would be able to score but his scoring punch off the bench is really valuable at this time and he is a ball stopper when he is in the game.

The Shabazz and Wiggins pairing was one that was fairly successful for parts of last season. Comparing the Martin/ Wiggins combo vs Shabazz/ Wiggins, Shabazz/ Wiggins had 5 more field goal attempts and 1 more 3-point attempt per 48 mintutes, meaning the pace was faster and more shots were going up. The combos were equally as effective in getting to the line and in scoring. In what was seen last season, Martin was doing most of the scoring early on in the season while Wiggins took a back seat vs a more combined effort offensively for the Wiggins and Shabazz duo.

To be frank, they are all equally a defensive drop off compared to Prince. All three lack the Defensive IQ to be a stopper. But I do believe that Shabazz will provide the most effort of the three possible replacements on the defensive end. Also, any of the three will ultimately force Wiggins to be the main defensive wing stopper, which is much needed for his improvement. Unfortunately team defense would take a hit but the rest of the guys in the starting lineup (Rubio, Wiggins, KG, KAT) are all adequate defenders.

All in all though, the starting lineup needs scoring. Shabazz can score. They need someone to get to the line. Shabazz gets to the line. They need someone to sink the open 3. Shabazz can do that too. They need Wiggins to play the 2. Shabazz can play the 3. While I don’t see anything wrong with experiment through Martin, LaVine, and Shabazz, I just feel the Prince experiment is over. Shabazz is the logical choice (to me) at this point. Martin is just not capable of guarding starter-level guards in the NBA on a game-in-game-out basis. LaVine is far too inconsistent.

My ultimate hope is this reaches Sam Mitchell and Shabazz is starting when the Wolves take on the Bulls on Saturday. Again, predicting another loss. Only because I am a huge Fred Hoiberg fan.