With the 3rd Pick in the 2015 NBA Draft (Post 2 of 4)…

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If the Wolves end up with a top 3 pick, we will be in good shape. The Wolves have a 64.9% chance of landing one of the top 3 picks. There is a good chance the Karl Towns goes number 1 in the draft no matter what. But the common strategy for the top 3 pick will be as Milt Newton has stated almost redundantly, take the best player available.

The draft is still over a month away but the top 3 looks extremely interesting right now. Karl Towns, Jahlil Okafor, and D’Angelo Russell seem to have it locked down. As big guys are usually a hot commodity (also high bust risk). D’Angelo Russell seems to be overlooked. Much of the conversation remains around Karl Towns and his potential on both ends of the court and Okafor’s incredible offensive ability. So I will make the assumption that Karl Towns and Okafor are taken in the top 2 picks, but if the Sixers and/ or Knicks end up in the top 2, Russell could be taken.

Okafor’s stock is dropping and will really need to impress folks in the coming weeks in order to solidify his spot as a top 2 pick. Winning a championship helps him quite a bit. His post game is that of a veteran in their prime. He has incredible strength in the post. And his passing ability is really overlooked. As a kid who has been getting double teamed since the age of 12, he would be a wonderful compliment to an Andrew Wiggins. Okafor does has some significant red flags. He is doesn’t have wonderful rebounding mechanics. In the NBA, you need your anchor to rebound. He also is terrible on the defensive end and had a lot of it covered up by Coach K running a zone defense. A rule of thumb for scouts is usually the stat that doesn’t translate well into the NBA is scoring and that is really the only thing Okafor is great at.

That all being said and sticking to the best player available strategy, the argument could be made that D’Angelo Russell may be exactly that. Russell is a 6-5 combo guard with a 6-10 wingspan, which is wonderful size. And while a second ago I mentioned that scoring wasn’t important, Russell led all Freshmen in scoring with 19.3 PPG and did it very efficiently on a 58% True Shooting Percentage. To me Russell has the lowest risk of any of the top 10 players because of his amazing passing ability and court vision. He may be the best passer in the draft since, probably Ricky Rubio. Russell can also shoot off the dribble or catch and shoot or come off screens. This ability combined with his amazing shooting makes me feel like he can be a Bradley Beal type player at the Point Guard position. His advance statistics (Win Shares, Assist%, Steal%, Rebound%) compare most with Kyrie Irving. His only issue is that he isn’t quite explosive enough for a point guard so could be contained.

Going best player available, Wolves have no choice but to take… D’Angelo Russell.

Russell

From the Timberwolves perspective, taking Russell presents a few obvious issues. Russell’s primary position is Point Guard. Don’t we have Ricky Rubio? Why yes! Don’t we have Zach LaVine? Yes! So what happens with Russell and where does he fit? Great question.

First things first, LaVine playing at Point Guard ends here. If there weren’t so many injuries, I am assuming that experiment would’ve ended in November. In hindsight though, it provided Zach with some great experience and I still believe he is going to be a great player in this league. Now for Ricky. I love Ricky. But one thing you learn to do in Business School is Hedge your investments. Ricky might officially be tagged as ‘injury prone’ now. Russell would be the Hedge. If Ricky gets hurt, Russell would fill in. Also, Russell would have the ability to play the 2 as well. Ricky and Russell in the backcourt would be probably the best playmaking backcourt ever.

At some point, someone would have to go or assume a lesser role. Unfortunately that person would likely be Zach LaVine and/ or Shabazz Muhammed. Unless Ricky proves he can’t stay healthy. Someone would need to be moved in a year to bring in another asset. Or maybe someone doesn’t pan out. The important point is, there is no such thing as a log jam unless you have sure things on your roster and at 16 wins, nothing is a sure thing.

There was a lot of concern when the Wolves drafted Derrick Williams when your best player played the same position, at power forward. When Derrick was brought it there was hopes he could play the 3. Unfortunately the biggest issue with Derrick is he could not guard any position on the court which made him a liability. Russell at 6-5 is oversized for a PG and about the right size for a SG. Williams was the right size for a SF and undersized as a PF. So there is no need to worry here about Russell and playing the same position as Rubio.

Pick number 2 coming up in the coming days. The draft lottery is 5 days away!

– The Timber (re)Builder

With the 4th Pick in the 2015 NBA Draft (Post 1 of 4) …

sheefo13 Uncategorized

The draft is easily my favorite time of the year. Mostly because we don’t make the playoffs.

As many Wolves fan build anticipation to the draft lottery on May 19th, I will post my thoughts on each scenario that the Wolves could end up with in the 2015 draft. This will be a four part series as the wolves can at worst (and most likely) end up with the fourth pick. For the purposes of anticipation and it simply being a broader spectrum, I will start with the 4th pick scenario and work down.

First, some assumptions need to be made. This draft has a pretty clear top three forming and barring any injuries and dramatic stock shifts, the top three should include Karl Towns, Jahlil Okafor, and D’Angelo Russell.

Next, we have to understand the situation. The situation is, this sucks. Why? Because the next about 6 players that will be drafted are about the same tier. And the last time the Wolves picked fourth they took Wesley Johnson. That didn’t turn out well. To me there are a few picks that could be game changers and some that need to be avoided.

Who to watch:

Emmanuel Mudiay – Mudiay took the Brandon Jennings route and played overseas in China, which may be the biggest joke of a Professional Basketball League in my opinion. Why do I thin this? Well 41 year old Stephon Marbury is the equivalent of Michael Jordan there and has a statue. Mudiay playing in China makes him the biggest unknown of any prospect in the top 10. Because of that, he is also seen to have high star potential (VJL Ball) but could be an absolute bust. His size (6-5) for a point guard mixed with his playmaking ability make him an extremely intriguing prospect. He can finish around the rim like a magician as well. If I learn anything from Daunte Exum last season, is be careful of the hype. Prior to this basketball season Mudiay was projected as the number one pick by many. As he struggled and was injured over the season, people began to back off. My thoughts is he becomes a Tyreke Evans at best. There are many lottery teams who are desperate for a point guard and specifically Mudiay. So if the Wolves have the right offer, I would not be opposed to trading down to a team that wants him and gives us something worth while in return.

Willie Caulie-Stien – Arguably the best defender in college basketball, the Kentucky Junior is likely the most ready to play immediately of any of the top 10 players along with Okafor. Coach Cal raves about how he can guard the 1-4 positions and his athletic ability. The guy can lock up a player and block shots, no question. He may lack some strength in post. But to me the biggest red flag is his potential lack of interest in basketball. It may be a bit overblown, but after the Bucks-Larry Sanders falling out, its a risk I don’t think is worth taking. The NBA provides many social challenges for players and it is something I am truly concerned about with WCS. On top of that, he is not a threat on offense. And to me, that is not something you invest in on a 4th pick. If the Wolves traded down and WCS was available, he may be a guy that could be groomed by KG. But WCS seems to be like a High Risk, Medium Reward type player.

Kristaps Porzingis – This would be my pick, and I presume Flip’s pick today. There needs to be some workouts and serious scouting. But Porzingis, the 18 year old out of Latvia, is a 7-1 Power Forward who can shoot and score effortlessly. I may be exaggerating a bit, but with some time, he could be a matchup nightmare. He is coordinated and seems like he won’t be quite a liability on defense. He is a home run pick definitely but the Wolves have the biggest question at PF and he could be an amazing compliment to a driving Rubio and a slashing Wiggins. Get Porzingis a post-game and he could be the next Pau Gasol/ Dirk Nowitzki fusion. He also could be another European Player who plays 176 minutes in the NBA and never reaches any of their potential. But shooting is much needed for the Timberwolves. So with the 4th pick (if not traded) the Wolves should take Porzingis.

porzingis

He seems happy.

Honorable Mentions

These guys I like but quite honestly, just don’t fit the Wolves current roster. Now many folks believe take the best player available. But as I mentioned earlier, the guys from 4-10 are all about the same caliber, so then you take position and fit into perspective.

Justise Winslow – Love his defense and intensity. Probably isn’t ready to contribute in the NBA quite yet though.

Mario Hezonja – Extremely talented outside shooter and dunker. Said he can do all of Zach LaVine’s dunk contest better than Zach. He also said he should be the 1st pick in this draft. For that I look forward to him being in the NBA and hopefully competing in the dunk contest. But I don’t like him already.

The top three are a little easier to analyze and better players. Look for those in the next few days.

A Young Pack

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wiggins

A completion of the 11th year of the infamous Minnesota Timberwolves rebuild since 03-04. The Wolves ended their season with 16 wins and 66 losses. Another year plagued by injuries. Another year as the laughing stock of the NBA. But this season was different.

First, this season has inspired me to start this blog. Welcome! I am a long time Timberwolves fan and a basketball junkie. I hope this blog gives Wolves fans hope all around the world.

But seriously, this season brought some much needed hope. In what seems as phase 3 of the now 11 year rebuild, the Wolves have tons of talent and many assets. Andrew Wiggins is the 2014-2015 Rookie of the Year and a major bright spot of the future. The best part, is that it seems as if the Wolves have already won the Kevin Love deal as Wiggins averaged more points that K-Love since that is all that really matters (#sarcasm). But Love is injured and will miss the rest of the season and isn’t a sure thing to return to the Cavs. The Wolves dodged a bullet and caught a blessing to say the least.

The rest of the pack (pun intended) looks promising as well. Young Zach LaVine caught the eyes of NBA fans and groupies everywhere All-Star weekend by winning the dunk contest and playing well in the second half of the season. In due time, my love for Zach LaVine will show, but for now I will just say I am excited for his development and think he can be a real star. Then there is Shabazz. Bazzy proved his worth this season before getting injured. His third season will really show what kind of role he will play in his career, will he be a starter or an energy guy? Leading the young pack is the injured but always smiling Rubio. Rubio is also still looking to define himself in the league but I am sure he will be the glue for these guys.

There are many other guys who have promise but to me will likely remain as role players. But what makes things even more exciting is the potential to pair these players with the likes of a top-4 pick in this upcoming draft. Towns, Okafor, or Russell would make the Wolves as exciting as the Clippers with Darius Miles, Q-Rich, and Lamar Odom. That didn’t turn out well, but still, exciting.

I plan on leveraging this blog for discussion of the wolves and all that there is to it. I want to run some analysis, history, predictions, breakdowns, etc. I have a lot to say and am open to many folks’ opinions on these topics.

Until then!