Author: sheefo13

What Dunn needs to do as a Starter

sheefo13 Uncategorized , , , , ,

I think I spent more time thinking of cool titles about Kris Dunn starting than I did thinking about what to put in here. Partially because titles with ‘Dunn’ in it is fun to think of, but mainly because what Kris Dunn needs to do to succeed is simple. Some titles I thought of:

It’s Dunn time to start! (A little slang used here)

Rubio starting is Dunn

Playoff hopes are Dunn

Getting the Job Dunn

What needs to be Dunn?

Which is your favorite? I didn’t want to use any… Yet. Anyways, back to this post.

Dunn has been handed an opportunity on a silver platter. Ricky Rubio is out ‘indefinitely’, which usually means a long time. This news came after Rubio met with the doctor. He will now meet with a surgeon, which could mean Rubio is out longer than we even originally expected.

Thibodeau brought Dunn in with the idea that he is the point guard of the future. Rubio was also not traded because he certainly gives the Wolves the best chance to win now. Rubio is needed on this team still if they plan to make the playoffs this year, but an early injury could become a blessing in disguise.

Dunn is in a very different situation than the Wolves’ previous rookies. Wiggins and Towns both were expected to produce immediately. Dunn is in a position where he does not need to be the first, second, or even third option offensively. He can slowly work himself into the offense. A luxury KAT and Wiggins didn’t really have.

What does Dunn need to do as a starter to be successful then? Like I said earlier, it is very simple. It should not be a surprise at all. But it is important for it to happen.

First, Dunn needs to do what he is known for and that is defense. I think Dunn has been impressive defensively in the first two games. He looks like a pest that disrupts the opposing team’s offense from getting set up. He gets the occasional steal from pressuring the ball. If he can master this, it will be the basis of his success. He will build confidence in his game at the NBA-level from his defense. It will also wear out his opponent when they need to play defense on him. It is easier said than done though. He will face the likes of Mike Conley, Chris Paul, Damien Lillard and Russell Westbrook multiple times early on this season. While Dunn won’t shut these guys down, he can try to contain them a little bit. It will certainly accelerate his experience.

Next, Kris will want to focus on not turning the ball over. This will be his backbone offensively. As a rookie, learning to not make mistakes will translate into him doing a ‘good job’. Luckily for Dunn, he has guys that he can rely on offensively to produce. He just needs to get them the ball and limit any mistakes. Kris Dunn will need to simplify his game and stick to the basics offensively. His baskets will come. Teams will game plan around forcing Dunn to beat them as he is most prone to making mistakes as a rookie.

If Dunn can play solid defense and limit mistakes offensively, his offensive game will come around. He should try to make the open shot. But mainly, he should try to take high percentage shots as much as possible. Dunn’s bread and butter was scoring around the rim in college. He can continue to do that and it will open up the floor for the Wolves. If teams see Dunn as a threat scoring at the rim, he will be able to penetrate and dish pretty easily.

With Rubio out, the opportunity for Dunn and the Wolves is great. I am optimistic still about what happens this season. An injury this early benefits the team in that Dunn will get heavy experience that could be valuable later in the year. Developing the backup point guard in that there isn’t a huge drop off will make a difference if the Wolves are fighting for a playoff spot. Dunn is being groomed to be the starter regardless, but this will certainly benefit the Wolves if Dunn becomes a strong bench contributor later this year when Rubio returns.

The Timber Rebuilder.

 

Experts not crazy about the Dieng deal, we disagree

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Coming into work today I listened to a podcast like I usually do. I typically will listen to someone like Zach Lowe or Wolves’ fans favorite Dougie Wolfson. I have a personal NBA favorite in Nate Duncan, who hosts the Dunc’d on podcast with Danny Leroux. They are ‘Cap Space’ experts but also do a wonderful job breaking down games. They go super in-depth and are super nerdy. I can relate.

They analyzed the Gorgui Dieng extension, which he signed with the Wolves for 4-years and $64M. Many Wolves fans rejoiced, as it was a steal compared to what we expected for him to be able to sign this summer. One thing that Wolves fans have noted, rightfully so, is that big men are still getting paid big bucks. We saw the deals that Timofey Mozgov, Ian Mahinmi and Bismack Biyombo signed this summer. With the cap increase playing a factor as well, Wolves fans valued Gorgui Dieng right around, if not higher, than those bigs that got paid.

I typically always respect and agree with Nate Duncan and Danny. I couldn’t agree on this one. I call them experts here even though they may not be the names you hear everyday if you’re an average basketball fan. But they definitely know their stuff. They felt that Dieng could’ve potentially got this deal in the summer when he hit restricted free agency. The reasons they call that out is because Dieng would have a cap hold of around 250%-300% his current salary, which is not too high. We could’ve also used it to sign two other starters or one starter and a bench guy with our $40M in cap space this summer.

They also didn’t like it due to Dieng’s age, who will be 27 by next season. The contracts that were given out to those on rookie-scale contracts were mainly to 23-year-old players who will play most of their extension into and in their primes. A lot of the money given to guys like Adams and Oladipo was based on potential. Dennis Schroeder got an extension for $70M and they felt if he developed into an average point guard, he was worth the money.

One of my concerns for extending Dieng was absolutely his age. I made it clear on Twitter. He isn’t worth going $90M if a guy like Adams is getting $100M because of age. But for $64M, you can lock up a fringe-starting center in the new NBA. Dieng has proven himself as someone who can start at Center but also be effective off the bench. Because the Wolves do not have a power forward, Dieng is the starter at Center for the foreseeable future, with Towns at the 4.

Although the Wolves did sign Dieng to a contract into his 30s, they have essentially locked him up through his prime. They will likely get his best production over the next three seasons. They are paying for what he is now and not what he can be in three years, this is a less-risky route. Gorgui has proven he can fit into many roles and still be effective. He is usually a net-positive player on the floor, so having him do this for another 3 years at least is worth the contract he signed.

The criticism around Dieng’s position, alongside Towns, was another criticism. Signing a player to a long-term contract that plays the same position essentially as your best player isn’t smart for how you use your cap space. This is absolutely true. Dieng was criticized that he can’t shoot by Duncan, which I don’t believe is true. Dieng has had a very solid midrange shot (shot 46% from 10-15ft last season). He isn’t a stretch-player necessarily, but he does spread the floor well, above average for a center. Dieng, is also a very good free throw shooter, which is very rare for a big man.

In the next four years, the Wolves will need to find a starting power forward who can stretch the floor and defend. In the meantime though, the Wolves have a solid security blanket in the frontcourt if they don’t find that player right away or if Towns ever gets hurt.

Dieng has also produced more on the court, in a lesser role, than Steven Adams thus far. Yes, Adams is younger and a better defender. But Dieng did just sign for nearly $40M less. Looking at their numbers, you can see that Dieng has averaged more points, rebounds, and blocks per game through his career.

Rk,Player,From,To,G,GS,MP,FG,FGA,FG%,3P,3PA,3P%,2P,2PA,2P%,eFG%,FT,FTA,FT%,ORB,DRB,TRB,AST,STL,BLK,TOV,PF,PTS
1,Steven Adams\adamsst01,2014,2017,234,170,21.7,2.5,4.5,.561,0.0,0.0,.000,2.5,4.5,.562,.561,1.3,2.3,.557,2.4,3.6,6.0,0.7,0.5,1.0,1.1,2.8,6.3
2,Gorgui Dieng\dienggo01,2014,2017,217,105,24.4,3.2,6.2,.516,0.0,0.1,.276,3.1,6.0,.521,.519,2.1,2.7,.780,2.3,4.7,7.0,1.5,0.9,1.3,1.5,2.4,8.5

There is some concern about cap flexibility in the future. That is fair. But at some point, the Wolves need solid role players surrounding Towns and Wiggins. This was the first step in that direction. I am certain that Dieng would’ve received a larger paycheck had he waited for the summer. Thibodeau has also loved Dieng since his days in Chicago. It is hard to come by a big man that has Dieng’s skill set and also his character. Dieng is a hard worker, willing to take any role the team gives him, and wants to win.

Dieng’s character is a big factor in why keeping Dieng around instead of looking to free agency made more sense. Dieng won a championship while at Louisville. Dieng has led the Senegal National Team each summer, in which he usually dominates in International competition. Dieng is also a guy who invests a ton in his home country of Senegal, which this contract will absolutely help those efforts. Dieng is the type of ‘character-guy’ you want on your team and you want your young players to be surrounded by. A lot of time those things are overlooked in analyzing these extensions. Dieng reminds me of Nick Collision with the Thunder. It would be great if Dieng spent the rest of his career here in Minnesota.

 

Addressing Towns’ in-game inconsistency problems

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Karl-Anthony Towns is the boy that can do no wrong. He is atop General Managers’ list of players to start a franchise around and has absorbed the attention by taking snapchat selfies of him as a ‘GOAT’. Like Kevin Garnett, Towns is fueled by confidence. And at a young age, it could fluctuate a bit.

Towns has a ton of potential and should be great. But there is still a lot of room for improvement. The biggest point of criticism that has carried over from last season to the first game of this season is Towns’ inability to spread his production throughout the game. Towns plays in spurts. But because he plays in spurts, it leaves the Timberwolves vulnerable to blowing big leads or playing behind huge deficits.

In the first game of the season, KAT ended the game with a plus/minus of -14, the worst of any player on the court for the Wolves. He started the game +17. So there was a 31-point swing while KAT was on the floor from the 20-3 early lead to the end of the game. Bold this, highlight this, whatever. But your best player can’t afford to have a 31-point swing while they are on the floor.

Thank you @CTTimberwolves for this link as well. This is a closer look at Towns’ game flow against the Grizzlies. 

Towns particularly plays well to start games. He gets a lot of his play early and then finds a way to hibernate for the middle of the game and come back alive in the 4th usually. In the first quarter last season with more than 6 minutes left in the quarter, Towns attempted 25 threes and 243 field goal attempts. In the other quarters with 6 or more minutes left he attempted a total of 20 threes on 365 field goal attempts. Most of those field goal attempts in the first 6 minutes of a quarter is in the third quarter. In the 2nd and 4th quarter, he attempted 68 and 78 field goals, respectively.

Even if you slice the number by the entire quarter, the differences are pretty staggering. Towns shot 22% from three in the fourth quarter of games last year vs 39% in all other quarters, on more attempts. Towns attempted 700 field goals last season in the first and third quarter vs 434 in the second and fourth.

Part of this is Towns takes a majority of his rest in the second and fourth quarters, but usually not to the nearly 2:1 ratio of attempts he is taking. The hump Towns will need to get over is being more consistent throughout the entire game.

The reason this is so important is because a consistent Karl-Anthony Towns insulates the young Wolves from their inexperience. The baby pups are not prepared to rally from behind on a nightly basis or defend early leads where they can’t mentally collapse for the rest of the game. A consistent dose of Karl-Anthony Towns means a consistent lead builder. It means opponents consistently need to worry about him. Instead, the Wolves become dependent upon other young players needing to contribute when Towns isn’t on. Currently

While watching the game last night, it was clear the Wolves were not prepared to hold a 17 point lead. The Grizzlies were too savvy of a team and had too many veterans that don’t lose hope. As Towns vanished in the game, the lead vanished. The Wolves could’ve also used Towns in the fourth, outside of the three he hit that he celebrated.

So how do we get Towns consistent? The early explosions of Towns are absolutely welcomed. That is not the problem. It is what proceeds. Towns seems to have a mentality that he is hot, not that he got on to a good start. So once he misses a couple, he reverts back to his teammates, especially in the 2nd and 4th quarters. This can’t happen. Towns needs to start getting ‘high percentage’ shots once he feels his hotness has faded. Get to the line. He doesn’t need to continue dominating, but he needs to prepare to slap his opponent in the face if the team’s lead is threatened.

Defense also seems to be a place where Towns can get discouraged. After Gasol hit a couple shots over him after Towns was helping on penetration, you could see Towns become deflated. Towns will learn in time, but sometimes you have to take the KG approach to a solution and go right back at your opponent on the other end. Towns will need to improve a bit guarding talented bigs like Gasol. But again, it will come in time.

This is not merely an overreaction to a loss. Its an observation from his rookie year that has carried over thus far. We all want to see Towns succeed. We all love him. I do however, thing his hype is becoming too much on a national level. Got to keep Towns hungry and improving.

The Timber Rebuilder

 

We want RJ Hunter or Archie Goodwin

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Consider this an open letter to Tom Thibodeau. Or consider this a post that may mean nothing in a day. Regardless how you take it, two quality, young guards are available for the league to grab and I believe Tom Thibodeau needs to sign one of them.

If you follow this blog on twitter (@timberrebuilder), you know that I am crazy about RJ Hunter. I wanted Flip Saunders (RIP) to draft Hunter over Tyus Jones in the draft. RJ Hunter has a great combination of playmaking, size, and shooting coming into the league. He carried a Georgia State team to the NCAA Tournament single-handedly. He has a body that almost looks like a light-skinned Corey brewer is running around, but he makes up for it with his length. He hasn’t been able to translate much to the NBA yet, but the tools are there.

Hunter was released by the Celtics because they had too many guaranteed contracts and had to cut ties with either Hunter or James Young. He wasn’t necessarily cut because he didn’t have the ability to make the team. He didn’t really get the opportunity to prove himself, but he was able to hit 36% of corner 3s, something he could immediately step in and do.

Archie Goodwin was also released by the Suns. Goodwin, a Kentucky kid, has been a guy who has been in the league based on his potential. He is an athletic freak and can score at will. He is a combo guard that is extremely athletic. He was behind a lot of guards in Pheonix, especially after Devin Booker developed himself into a starter on the team. He did have this amazing game winner this preseason, which is worth a watch.

 

Why go after one of these guys?

If either player is picked up, they will likely be the 14th or 15th man. They typically wouldn’t dress for games. While it may be best for this season to hold on to a veteran like John Lucas III, a flyer on a guy with as much potential as Hunter or Goodwin could pay off long-term. Both players could develop into solid rotation players and could even contribute this year.

The Timberwolves are also looking to deal Tyus Jones for a shooter. RJ Hunter could be that shooter! Goodwin isn’t really a shooter but could be a solid scorer off the bench.

The Wolves bench lacks depth at the shooting guard position. If you’ve read our season preview you know that there isn’t anyone really backing up LaVine on a consistent basis. Having a true shooting guard in Hunter or Goodwin could help in the event that LaVine gets hurt.

Short and timely post. We want Hunter or Goodwin. And we want to tell the world.

The Timber Rebuilder

Timberwolves ‘Measuring Stick’ Teams

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The 2016-17 Season is right around the corner!! As the season progresses, it will be important for the Wolves to get an idea of how good they really are. One way to see how you are doing through the season outside of stats and standings is seeing how you perform against another team, typically around the same caliber as you. In the West, there are a handful of teams that are locks for the playoffs and there are about 8 teams competing for 3 spots in the West. There will be broken hearts. If the Wolves do make the playoffs, they have to serve the role of heart breaker.

But what teams can the Wolves use as measuring sticks this season? How can they tell if they are going to break hearts by the end of the year? First, lets define what a ‘measuring stick’ team is. A measuring stick team can come in many forms. First, they are likely a team that is on the bubble of the playoffs. They are a team that you probably performed poorly against the previous season. They are a team that you could potentially jump ahead of in the standings this season. They match up well against you and can be a test at things you think you improved on over the off-season.

New Orleans Pelicans

townsdavis

While the Pelicans won 30 games last season, they made the playoffs the season before with 45 wins. The ‘Brow hype has died down due to injuries, but I still believe Anthony Davis is one of the most talented players in the league. I also believe they added some solid pieces this offseason. I don’t know if the Pels make the playoffs, but they could serve as the ‘floor’ measuring stick this season. A team the Timberwolves have to outplay will be the Pelicans, and it may be harder than it sounds. Buddy Hield is probably one of the more NBA-ready rookies who can shoot the lights out. Solomon Hill signed with New Orleans this summer and I believe he could be a real difference maker. They also managed to steal away Langston Galloway and Terrance Jones. If health is on the Pelicans’ side, it may be hard for the Wolves to win 3 out of 4 meetings. They split the season series last year.

Regardless of team outcomes, this will also be a measuring stick for Karl-Anthony Towns. There is much debate around who is the best big man in the league. Davis and Towns are the future of that discussion. There is also the Kentucky rivalry to throw in there. It could turn into a Garnett/ Duncan-like rivalry in the future.

Dallas Mavericks

wigginsdirk.jpg

The Dallas Mavericks are looking to hold on to their playoff position with the acquisition of Harrison Barnes this offseason. The Mavericks finished 6th in the West with a 42-40 record. As Dirk is nearing the end of his career, it will be interesting to see how they hold on to playoff hopes. The reason they are a good measuring stick is because this is a team with experience and high-expectations. This is also a team that would likely need to fall out of the playoffs in order for the Wolves to make it in. The Wolves also lost all four matchups with the Mavs last season. In all the games, the Mavs wings found ways to torch the Wolves. Although Chandler Parsons is no longer with the Mavericks, it will be a good test to see if the Wolves perimeter defense improved against a team that has no shortage of scorers and shooters.

Denver Nuggets

NBA: Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets are a team still looking for an identity. They relied on the incredibly inefficient rookie Emmanual Mudiay at point guard last season. After winning 33 games, the Nuggets will try to improve through the development of their international big men. Jusuf Nurkic made a late push for Rookie of the Year, so it will be interesting to see how he responds in year two. Some how though, the Nuggets managed to win 3 of 4 meetings with the Timberwolves last season. Not underestimating the Nuggets, but if the Wolves are planning on having a successful season, they will need to out-win the Nuggets. The Wolves should be aiming to win 2-3 meetings this year.

To do that, the Wolves will need to figure out how to guard Danilo Gallinari. The Wolves haven’t been successful guarding stretch-4s who can shoot and operate out of the triple-threat. While coaching should help this, Gallinari was guarded by someone who had no business guarding him in OT last year, which really pointed out the Wolves gaps on the perimeter defensively. Can Wiggins guard him this season? We shall see.

 

Utah Jazz

Zach LaVine, Rodney Hood

The Utah Jazz are the ultimate measuring stick team for the Timberwolves. Not only are they divisional rivals, but they have a good amount of hype and barely didn’t make the playoffs last season. The Jazz are about as hungry, if not hungrier, for a playoff spot this season. According to @PaulDeVos7, the Wolves were only 5 wins behind the Jazz in the final 40 games last year. The Jazz did take the season series 3-1 with all of the games happening after December 30th. But what makes the Jazz incredibly intriguing is that they have players at each position that will not only challenge the Wolves, but are almost a toss up when discussing who is better.

Ricky Rubio is better than George Hill and that might be the biggest advantage the Wolves have. Derrick Favors is not better than Towns, but I do think Favors is fairly underrated. On the perimeter, Hayward is better than Wiggins and Hood edges out LaVine simply because he is a great two-way player. If the Wolves want to outplay the Jazz this season, Wiggins will have to outperform Gordon Hayward. The Jazz also have added a significant amount of depth by signing Boris Diaw, Joe Johnson, and Daunte Exum returning from injury.

The Wolves will have an advantage early in the season against the Jazz with Hayward injured. The Jazz won 40 games last year and could get closer to 50 this year. If the Wolves jump into the 40-win range, it will be important to win two games against the Jazz. Regardless, this could be a good rivalry this season. Especially if we see Andrew Wiggins continue his efforts in posterizing Rudy Gobert.

While an argument could be made for all the ‘bubble’ teams, we felt like this was a diverse group and could test out different things against the Wolves. Agree? Disagree? Have other ‘measuring stick’ teams? Let us know!

The Timber Rebuilder.

Timberwolves 2016-17 Season Preview, Keys to Success and Bold Predictions

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It is that time of the year again, the NBA is coming back! The Wolves’ measure of success this coming season will be simple. Playoffs. Make ‘um and the season was a success. Don’t make ‘um and the season didn’t meet expectations. Right?

Tom Thibodeau takes over one of the most exciting young teams in the last decade after a year sabbatical. The Wolves young core of Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine will be supported by veteran Ricky Rubio, rookie Kris Dunn, supporting young core pieces Shabazz Muhammad and Gorgui Dieng, and a slew of journeymen/ veterans that align with Thibs’ basketball philosophy.

The analogy I love using for the Timberwolves is ‘removing the training wheels.’ The training wheels were the veterans the team had on the roster that the Wolves could lean on when the rookies couldn’t balance things out. When LaVine wasn’t doing well as a starter, Tayshaun Prince and Kevin Martin came in to help him. Kevin Garnett was also there in the ear of young Karl-Anthony Towns throughout the season. When the Wolves needed an extra push, the veterans stood in.

That won’t be the case this season. Ricky Rubio is as veteran as it gets on the Wolves. Rubio has started the most games than any other player on the entire roster. Andrew Wiggins will have to rely on his extensive experience of starting for two seasons. As you saw in our previous piece, we believe Wiggins needs to step it up this season on the defensive end of the floor for the Wolves to be successful. Karl-Anthony Towns, while gaining tons of national media attention, will absolutely have a target on his back around the league. He isn’t going to be able to slide under the scouting report-radars after the season he had. Then there is also Tom Thibodeau. Thibs was the most sought-after head coach this offseason, and that brings high expectations. Thibodeau will have to forgo a season of experimentation and ensure that the young Wolves can execute seamlessly.

Like any kid who learns how to ride a bike without training wheels for the first time, there will be bumps and bruises. You learn how fast you can turn and how to speed down a hill. The Wolves will have some bumps and bruises, especially early on. I may come off as pessimistic for the coming season, but in reality I am looking at this season as a transition period.

Every season has its ups and downs, so barring any major changes or injuries; we can expect a rotation that looks like this:

C- Dieng/ Aldrich/ Hill

PF – Towns/ Bjelica/ Payne

SF – Wiggins/ Rush

SG – LaVine/ Muhammad

PG – Rubio/ Dunn/ Jones

In looking at the rotation, the Timberwolves have a good list of point guards. I do believe we will see more of Tyus Jones this year. The Summer League MVP can be a secret weapon off the bench to help with 3-point shooting. The reason I feel that we will see Jones more is because I also believe we will see Kris Dunn play shooting guard this season. The Wolves are weak on perimeter depth, especially defensively. Dunn will take away from the Wolves ability to shoot, but will be able to add to the perimeter defensively. Jones and Dunn could see more time on the floor than Rubio Dunn in my opinion.

My concern is still on the perimeter. Zach LaVine without a solid backup is going to be interesting. I think Shabazz should be playing more of the 3 or even a small ball 4. It will be important to monitor Muhammad this season because his game changes a little bit every year. He has talked about learning more on Defense just being around Thibodeau and that he has a desire to start. It will be interesting to see where he fits in this season. He has a chance to be the leading scorer off the bench.

As of now, Brandon Rush seems like the natural fit coming in off the bench at the small forward position. Rush is going to have an opportunity to be a part of the rotation. There is a good chance that Bjelica could see some time at the 3, depending on matchups. That said, small forward depth is going to be concerning, if Shabazz is playing shooting guard.

Up front, the Wolves are good for now. A four-player rotation of Towns, Dieng, Bjelica, and Aldrich is great. All have a skillset that is valuable and needed. I am high on what Dieng will be able to do with Thibs. Dieng should get better defensively and seems to be adding a mid-range jump shot that will be able to stretch the floor. The coaching staff is high on Nemanja. The former Euroleague MVP is in better shape this season and ready for a breakout season. It will be interesting to see if Thibs using Belly like he did Mirotic in Chicago.

The Wolves still have Pekovic on the roster who is out for the year already. There is a 15th spot that will in all likelihood be Rasual Butler. It will likely change over the course of the year as injuries occur.

Keys to Success

Who would’ve ever thought that a DJ Khaled reference would still be relevant when previewing a season? Here are our keys to success:

Defense

As a good friend of mine reminds me all the time, Tom Thibodeau has never coached a team that wasn’t in the top 10 in defense. There is no doubt in my mind that for the Timberwolves to really make it over the hump, they will need to be a top 10 defensive team. The team certainly has the physical assets on the roster. Karl-Anthony Towns was very good defensively last season. Gorgui Dieng and Cole Aldrich are solid rim protectors. Andrew Wiggins has the length and athletic ability to be a terror on the defensive end. Ricky Rubio and Kris Dunn could also be incredible perimeter defenders. The key will be learning to play team defense and covering up for the liabilities on defense like Zach LaVine, Shabazz Muhammad, and Bjelica. Being a top-10 defensive team should translate to being a playoff team. But going from about the worst in the NBA to top 10, especially with the inexperience the Timberwolves have, is a rarity.

3- Point Shooting

Another area in which the Timberwolves were terrible in last season, second-to-last to be specific. The Wolves are relying on organic growth in their 3-point shooting, which is fairly risky. The way that the Wolves get better is if their perimeter players can carry the load from outside the arc, which wasn’t the case last year. Andrew Wiggins and Ricky Rubio were bad. The Wolves added another guard who can’t shoot this offseason in Kris Dunn. That said, Brandon Rush was like adding a mini-band aid to the problem. The kind that Nelly used to wear below his eye in the 90’s. To make matters worse, Tom Thibodeau isn’t a huge advocate of the 3-pointer, but has indicated that his philosophy has changed a bit.

Wolves are as good as Wiggins and LaVine

cst 117830 Wolves Media Day
Monday, Sept. 26, 2016. (Pioneer Press: Scott Takushi)

I feel good about where Karl-Anthony Towns is as a player. If he didn’t improve this offseason, he would still be a net-positive player on the floor. While defense and 3-point shooting are factors that the team need to do better as a whole, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine have the most pressure on them to produce this season. Both entering their third seasons, they both have a lot to prove around the league. Are they just incredible physical specimens or are they legitimate NBA talents? Throughout this piece and my overall criticality of the Wolves, a lot of it is around Wiggins and LaVine. I have beaten a dead horse on the Wiggins-development end, but the same has to go for LaVine.

LaVine has an opportunity to be one of the best inside-outside threats in the league offensively. I can live with Zach being below average defensively. But for LaVine, scoring efficiently and using the playmaking skills he developed will be what defines success. LaVine can score in bunches. But can he do that night-in and night-out? If LaVine is a guy who can average 17 points a game and shoot over 37% from three, he will solidify himself as the third-head on the three-headed monster for the Wolves.

The bench needs to be a factor

One thing that Thibodeau did this offseason that will turn out to be genius is seeking out cheap contracts for veterans that can add depth to a young team. The additions of Cole Aldrich, Jordan Hill and Brandon Rush helped add front-court depth, toughness, and veteran experience. I am a fan of signing players who were bench warmers of good teams, especially if they had a niche. Aldrich was one of the best rim protectors in the NBA and nobody knew about it. Brandon Rush was an incredible three-point shooter, but because his skillset was redundant on a great team, he rarely got playing time.

 

Bold Predictions

 

  • Kris Dunn will be good, but will not be a serious candidate for Rookie of the Year
  • Gorgui Dieng will not come to an extension agreement this season and will earn a max contract this offseason. He will start most games for the Wolves.
  • Ricky Rubio will increase his trade value this season. We will see improvement in his jump shot.
  • Shabazz Muhammad will work his way out of Minnesota in hopes for a starting role. Whether that is via trade mid-season or a contract this summer.
  • Karl-Anthony Towns is an All Star, makes All-Defensive team and All-NBA team.
  • Andrew Wiggins is a replacement for the All-Star game (getting really bold here)
  • The Timberwolves end their 12-year drought and make the playoffs as a 7-seed!

 

Although I am still skeptical, I do think the Timberwolves can make the playoffs this season. Things will have to go right. It will require the trio of Towns, Wiggins and LaVine to really step up. My predictions are a fence-swing, especially with Wiggins being an All-Star. But I think the Wolves go into the All-Star break above .500 because someone outside of the three-headed monster. The biggest reason why I feel the Wolves have a successful season is because I truly believe Ricky Rubio and Gorgui Dieng will thrive under Tom Thibodeau. That will be the difference maker.

 

I think the Wolves go 43-39 this season. A huge jump from 29-53. I would’ve felt better about this prediction if Kevin Garnett was still on the roster. Regardless, the young pups will lose the training wheels and it will be the beginning of something special. I can’t wait!

Andrew Wiggins’ Criticality

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Karl-Anthony Towns has made Minnesota sports fans fall in love with him. The kid is 20 years old but understands that for the Timberwolves to be successful, they need a crowd again. The Wolves compete with the Vikings and Twins for sports ticket dollars in the Twin Cities. So Towns has been seen cheering on the Vikings and Twins all over his snap chat. It is quite entertaining. Towns also has been on his PR-grind around the nation doing interviews and commercials that are just now appearing everywhere. I thought Zach LaVine, the China-traveling, dunk champion, was marketable. But no, Towns feels like he is running a presidential campaign.

So why start this post talking about KAT? Well, because he already has all the attention. The National media can’t stop talking about how good he is. He is expected to be an all-star. He is everyone’s focus. It is easy to talk about him and to love what he is doing, right?

Behind the KAT shine, is a quiet, laid-back Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins was disrespected in NBA2K17 when he was rated 6 points lower than his partner Towns at a, semi-respectable 82. Wiggins came out of his hiding and stated he like Call of Duty better, a witty response. But as they say, games are becoming much more realistic. And as of right now, Wiggins hasn’t proven much more than he can score at the NBA-level.

Besides the release of Andrew Wiggins’ hiking boots, that I intend on buying to help me through the brutal Minnesota winter, there has been videos of Wiggins working hard on his game. He is improving his ball-handling and looks to be able to shoot off of the dribble. Fitting his personality, he has laid low throughout most of the summer. Without the veteran presence of Kevin Garnett, Wiggins will have the most experience in the starting lineup this season outside of Ricky Rubio. It is a scary thought to think but, Andrew Wiggins will need to be a leader.

It isn’t in Wiggy to be a vocal leader like KG was. He doesn’t need to be. KAT is going to attract all the media attention but it may be on Wiggins to set the tone early and close out games late. Not only that, but he will have to carry a lot of the load on both ends of the court.

While he has been able to score, he will need to do so more efficiently and get others involved. Adding a consistent 3-pointer will be the first way to improve. He shot 24% from behind the arc before the All Star break and 41% after. Wiggins being an inside-outside threat will help open up the floor for him to penetrate and get others involved.

On the defensive side is where the real work will need to be done. While I have hope with Thibodeau in town, I still think a good amount of defense is just effort. Wiggins has to be able to carry the weight on the offense side and come back and do the same on defense. Wiggins has a terrible Defensive rating of 114 last season. He also had a pretty bad Defensive Box Plus/ Minus of -2.5.

The reason the Timberwolves need Andrew Wiggins to turn it around defensively is because he has the physical tools to be able to guard C.J McCollum and Kevin Durant. And if Wiggins is going to start alongside Zach LaVine, there is a good chance Wiggins will be guarding the opposing team’s best offensive player. Wiggins had to play alongside Tayshaun Prince for most of the season for the simple fact that Wiggins could not handle the responsibility on both ends of the court. With the training wheels off ( I love this phrase for the Wolves this season), it is time for Wiggins to truly make a leap on this end.

There is also the rebounding conversation. With getting bigger and stronger and wiser, rebounding should come a little more naturally. Wiggins’ rebounding numbers dropped from his rookie to sophomore year, mainly because he was playing more shooting guard. At least that is the excuse I am making. While the Wolves have some exceptional rebounding big men, the Wolves were second to last in rebounding last season. A clear gap is where your small forward is averaging 3 rebounds. Please Wiggins, let’s get some boards this season.

While Towns is getting all the attention, the team will not being able to make the playoffs and make significant strides forward unless Andrew Wiggins improves. It feels like a lot of this season will be dependent upon his development. We have seen Anthony Davis’ Pelicans take a significant step back, partially due to not having a supporting figure with Davis.

I don’t see anyone being more critical to the Wolves’ success this season than Andrew Wiggins. Karl-Anthony Towns can put up the same numbers he did last year and will be an All Star. Wiggins will need to show he can be at a Jimmy Butler-level before he gets that kind of respect. I will be watching Maple Jordan extra carefully this season. There is no doubt about that.

KG and the Wolves close to parting ways

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In a long, drawn out summer, Kevin Garnett and the Timberwolves organization are in ‘advanced’ stages of a buyout. This would mean, Kevin Garnett would be a free agent and could sign with whatever team he wants.

This means, Kevin Garnett could potentially break the record of number of seasons played this upcoming season and it would not be with the Timberwolves.

The Wolves are already weak at the power forward position but they did add Cole Aldrich and Jordan Hill this summer.

Garnett and owner Glen Taylor were already on shaky terms, but after the passing of Flip Saunders it was unclear if Taylor would live up to the agreement Flip made with KG, whatever that was.

Tom Thibodeau may have had an impact on the decision as well. More details to come. Let us know your thoughts.

I met Ricky Rubio last night

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While I will sit here and talk Wolves all day, I still am a huge fan. I went to see Nemr (awesome comedian) at his comedy show after a long day of class. I threw on my Timberwolves hat as I walked out, because I love the Wolves. 

As the show was happening, I spotted Rubio in front of me. He was enjoying the show. Nothing crazy though, after the show I got introduced to him and let him know I’m a big fan. I felt bad due to his mother passing and all the rumors around him. But still got love for Rubio! Excited for the season to get started!

Salty Sam

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Lot of emotions. Quick recap/ reflection of the Sam Mitchell interview with Doogie where you can find here.

Sam Mitchell joined Doogie Wolfson on his Podcast and didn’t shy away from his disgust of how he was treated by the Timberwolves organization. He was fired right at the end of the season over the phone by Glen Taylor, which did not leave Mitchell happy. Mitchell noted the 13 years he has spent with the Timberwolves as a player and coach as to how he deserved more than a phone call. He also was let down that Tom Thibodeau didn’t call since they have ties from the inaugural season when Mitchell was a player and Thibs was a coach.

Mitchell has every right to be upset. Whether or not he has spent 13 years or not, the way he was fired was unprofessional and unacceptable. I think out of respect, his 13 years warranted him at least an interview for the position. He started the season bad and don’t think he deserved the job for this upcoming season, but he did make some significant changes over the year. He also took over a very difficult situation, a situation that has maybe Never happened before in the NBA. How Glen Taylor has handled this was absolutely wrong and is the reason many alumni of the organization are not fond of the team after they leave.

Glen Taylor doesn’t feel like he cares about the relationships that were built when a player or coach leaves a team. This is why Kevin Garnett at one point was not a fan of Minnesota in his Boston days. Kevin McHale also didn’t leave on good terms. It is a part of the business of basketball, but it has to be handled better. Glen Taylor burns bridges because he knows he has the money to rebuild them if he wants to later.

This leads me to believe that the dream of Kevin Garnett being a part of this organization long term won’t happen. It sounds like the situation with KG is already on thin ice and he doesn’t seem happy. Garnett is in a tough position and probably doesn’t have a roster spot carved out for him like he has for his entire career. I don’t have the faith in Glen Taylor to remedy that.

Back to Sam Mitchell. In the interview, Mitchell made a few mistakes. He attempted to take credit for the improvement of players over the course of the season, which I don’t think he can credit himself fully. He took credit for Karl-Anthony Towns’ unanimous Rookie of the Year award because he didn’t make him play under the basket. Had Mitchell let Towns play the minutes he deserved early on in the season, there is a good change Towns would’ve been an All-Star his rookie year.

He then went on to note Wiggins 4 point jump in points per game was historic. He asked how many players have jumped 4 points from one season to the next. I accidentally laughed out loud at work. You actually don’t have to look far. Shabazz Muhammad jumped nearly 10 points from his rookie to sophomore year. Zach LaVine also added 4 points to his average. So to answer Sam’s question, it is pretty common, and maybe below expectations that Wiggins jumped 4 points per game.

Sam then was upset about the criticism he received around how he handled Zach LaVine at point guard. He said he just wanted to get Zach on the court. The problem there is that Zach was named the starter in the preseason, struggled, and then made the backup point guard. He was clearly struggling at point guard and everyone in the country was noticing how much better of a player he was playing alongside Ricky Rubio.

Sam then almost took credit for Shabazz Muhammad’s improvements. I accidentally laughed out loud again. Shabazz had the best season of his career in his season season when he posted smaller guys and drove passed bigger ones. He was hustling on the boards and shooting much better from 3. A lot of us expected a big season from Shabazz and were left disappointed because Mitchell didn’t know how to incorporate him into the scheme.

That was a small part of the interview. Sam then was very upset about about how Scott Layden called a month and a half later. He then mentioned that he hung up in Scott’s face. I thought that was interesting.

All of that said, I felt bad for Sam. It sounded like he is still taking it hard. He has a lot of little things happening now as he has moved to Atlanta. I hope that he gets into coaching. It sounded like he was interested in College ball. As a long time Wolves fan, I have nothing but respect for Sam I Am. I remember his playing days and when Wall Szczerbiak took his starting spot because of an injury. I know I will continue following his career. So long to the former NBA Coach of the Year. His mistreatment of the media will certainly be missed.