The Situation at pick Seven

Jonathan Isaac. That is the goal.

usa-jonathan-isaac
The draft is all about choosing between team need and talent. Can the player fit the system and fill a team need? But then, it is the draft, right? We should just draft the best player available since these guys are so young and you never know what you’ll get. You can always address needs in free agency. Right? That is typically how the argument around draft philosophies go. But what if I told you, you could draft a player who fit your team at a position you need, all while them being the best at their position AND not have to take him 1st overall?
That is exactly what Jonathan Isaac is for the Timberwolves. The Wolves have been drafting players left and right, holding onto talented lottery picks waiting to bare the fruits of their labor. In fact, the Wolves had three consecutive number one picks on their roster at one point.
The Wolves have three high usage players in Towns, Wiggins and LaVine. That is one of the biggest hurdles around the Wolves picking in the lottery again. There aren’t a lot of clear cut players that have the potential at 7 that those three have offensively. That said, the Wolves need players that don’t require the ball to score and who are ‘plus’ players on the defensive end. The Wolves essentially need a 3 and D guy, preferably not at the same positions as the big three or at point guard since the Wolves just drafted Kris Dunn.
Jonathan Isaac is all that and a bag of Sun Chips. Isaac is not going to blow anyone away with his offense but has shown the ability to hit the three and play incredible defense. The 6-11 forward is still skinny in which he may not be able to guard stronger power forwards in the league quite yet, but adding some weight to his frame overtime will certainly help him there. He already rebounds and block shots like a starting power forward in the league. He is great in defending the pick-n-roll, which can only get better working under Thibs. He still isn’t great at defending the perimeter, but he certainly is an improvement over Wiggins right now.
The reason I love Isaac is because he has the potential to be the best role player in the NBA. He was not a high usage player at Florida State and was still extremely effective. His unique combination of length and ability to be a 3-and-D player makes people compare him to the likes of Draymond Green. As he fills out his frame, he has the potential to help defend another team’s best wing player but also serve as a help-side rim protector. Because he has a lot of the defensive skills already, his floor isn’t too bad either. Worst case, he is a serviceable role player that is solid defensively and non-existent on offense. Think, Wes Johnson with the Clippers.
Being that the Wolves drafted Wes Johnson number 4 overall over many other future All-Stars, that was probably not the best comparison. But we are talking about floors here. Wes Johnson is a spot-starter on a playoff team that needs a wing 3-and-D guy. The Wolves drafted him as a player that would’ve been great offensively. I digress though.
The issue currently for the Wolves is that Jonathan Isaac’s stock is rising. Not because he has done anything to deserve it since he didn’t go to the draft combine, but because the stock of the other forwards are falling. Namely, Josh Jackson and Jayson Tatum. Both have serious potential. But if I had to pick another former Wolves draft pick, their floors look like Derrick Williams. Not for their style of play but because of their need for the ball without being good shooters. Tatum is Carmelo Anthony on offense in terms of ISO ball. Not only is that a bad fit for the Wolves, many teams are moving away from that style of basketball. Jackson is better offensively and has a unique passing ability for a forward. Both have light years of potential and could very well be All-Stars, but their styles of play are concerning.
If any of the three fall on draft night, it will likely be Tatum. I can’t imagine Jackson falling passed the Wolves at 7. He has shooting concerns that would probably make him a poor fit in Minnesota, but he could also push out one of Wiggins or LaVine. As of today, Jackson should probably go to the Sixers, but things can change in the next month.
Now, let’s play the scenario in which Jonathan Isaac goes before number 7. The Sixers could potentially take Isaac at 3. The Suns could have interest at 4. The Kings will almost certainly take a point guard at 5. The Magic may have more interest in one of the higher usage players at 6, but after bringing on Hammond from Milwaukee, they could be looking for a Giannis archetype, which Isaac fits. There is also the possibility a team trades up to take Isaac. The Nuggets have the assets to do just that and he fits the Nuggets very well. So what do the Wolves do?
The Wolves have two options. One includes taking the best player available. That will likely be taking Tatum or Jackson if they fall. There is also the intriguing prospect of Malik Monk. We will visit that option. The second option would be to trade down. We will visit that as well.
First, best player available. Chances are, the best player available will be Malik Monk if Isaac is taken. Monk is probably one of the better scorers and shooters in this draft. The Wolves missed out on Jamal Murray last year, this would be their opportunity to make up for it this year. Monk would be the security blanket around LaVine’s knee as he rehabs from the ACL tear. Monk could also replace the scoring that the Wolves will lose off the bench if Shabazz Muhammad demands too much money. The issue with drafting Monk would be his size at the off guard position and his ability to defend in the NBA. He is almost another Jamal Crawford, which is good, but not great for the Wolves. Scoring also doesn’t always translate great to the NBA. If I had to relate Monk’s floor to a Wolves draft pick, it would be Rashad McCants.
Trading down opens up a slew of options for the Wolves. They could add a veteran player and a late round draft pick. They could package the pick with Rubio and others to potentially bring in a better player. There are teams that will need point guards and there are a lot of point guards available in the top 10 of this draft. My hope is the Wolves listen to offers, especially if Isaac is off the board.
While I can’t go into every scenario if the Wolves trade the pick, I would love the Wolves to target a poor man’s version of Jonathan Isaac, OG Anunoby. Physically, Anunoby is an upgrade over Isaac. He is 6-8 with a 7-5 wingspan. He is also a mystery. He didn’t play too much his Freshmen year at Indiana and tore an ACL during his Sophomore year. He is a monster defensively. His shot is more of a question mark than Isaac’s, as well as his health.
That is where things stand as of right now, a month ahead of the draft. A good amount can change from now until then. Jonathan Isaac has the potential to be the perfect power forward of the future, sandwiched between Wiggins and Towns. If Isaac and Dunn develop consistent three point shots, they seem like the perfect role players around the Wolves big three. Both would be amazing defensively which would be a nightmare for opponents. A lot depends on the shooting abilities of the role players Dunn and potentially Isaac, which is definitely a huge question regardless.
Advertisements

The unofficial new Wolves Logo leaked

The Wolves will reveal their new logo in tonight’s game against the OKC Thunder. There have been some remakes of the logo through hearsay but this one appeared through advertisements on the Star Tribune Website.

7JmRNxy.png

Your thoughts?

It pays tribute to all of the previous Wolves logos. This new logo includes lime green, which will add a new twist to the jerseys.

#PowerOfThePack

March Madness Prospects to watch as a Wolves fan

The draft is always my favorite time of the year. With the Wolves making a push towards the playoffs, it does mean they risk not having a great pick in this draft. A later lottery pick though could be just what the Wolves need going into next season.

The 2017 draft is stacked at point guard. There will be a ton of guard prospects to choose from which will not be great for the Wolves. The Wolves certainly could use a backup/ spot-starter at the two-guard next season but that can be addressed in free agency. I don’t think Brandon Rush is necessarily the answer there.

This draft will have some stretch forwards that could be the long-term partner up front with Karl-Anthony Towns, or just another player to fill out the bench. As the tournament gets started, here are the players I love for the Timberwolves.

Miles Bridges (Michigan State)

NCAA Basketball: Purdue at Michigan State

The Freshmen reminds me of a Detroit Piston from the 90s. He is incredibly athletic, physical and smart. He has a sweet 3-point stroke and is solid defensively in the pick-n-roll. I don’t know if there is a player I like better than Bridges right now for the Wolves. He is slotted as a late-lottery pick but I can see his stock going up after the NCAA Tournament and through workouts. He has some questionable decision making but I think it is a result of inexperience. He is always a factor when he is on the floor which you don’t always see from freshmen in college basketball. His physical abilities (strength and just athleticism) coupled with his 3-and-D potential makes me feel like he has the ability to be the perfect complement to KAT in the long run. I can’t imagine what he will be like when he becomes 24.

Jayson Tatum (Duke)

tatum

It is hard to get a feel for where Tatum ends up but he is worth keeping an eye on. He is also a combo forward but I don’t think he would match up well against bigger power forwards in the NBA quite yet, defensively at least. He started the season off slow but has picked it up quite nice. He has a ton of ‘potential’ as a franchise cornerstone, so there is a good chance he gets taken far before the Wolves pick. It will be good to keep an eye on him though as he is essentially the best forward prospect in the draft.

Jonathan Isaac (Florida St.)

NCAA BASKETBALL: NOV 24 NIT Season Tip-Off - Temple v Florida State

Isaac has probably the best defensive potential in the draft. He is super long and when his body fills out, he will be able to guard both of the forward positions in the NBA. He is a good rebounder, a pretty good perimeter defender and can block shots. He is still working on his 3-pointer, which is a point of concern for me. He also plays a much lesser of a role on his team now than the previous two prospects mentioned. Not a huge concern because Zach LaVine came in with many of the same issues. Isaac will be more of a project though.

Don’t like, but worth watching

  • Lauri Markkanen: Lauri is a 7-footer who can shoot and defend. I am not quite sold on him quite yet mainly because I don’t see him fitting well next to KAT, not that he isn’t a good prospect. He also feels like a project like Dragan Bender. With the Wolves committed to Gorgui Dieng now in the long-term, Markkanen feels like he would be more of a redundant asset where the three guys above offer a different flavor in their game than Dieng. Lauri is still worth watching with Arizona because he will be in picking range for the Wolves and his stock could rise in the tournament.

Long Shots (Not in the tournament/ not playing)

  • OG Anunoby: OG suffered a season ending injury but screams potential. If the Wolves end up with a much later pick through a trade in the late 1st or early 2nd round, OG might be a guy that can fit well with what Thibs likes. He is a great defender. I would be scared to think what Dunn and OG could be together in the future potentially.
  • Ivan Rabb: Rabb is a Sophomore who’s Cal team didn’t make the tournament. He would’ve been a lottery pick last season but was committed to helping Cal win this season. He is going to now looking like a late-1st rounder because he seems like a traditional 4. He is a solid post defender and a good rebounder. His offense is limited but looks like a solid role player.

 

Why the Lance Stephenson signing is great

The Timberwolves just signed Lance Stephenson to a 10-day contract. We probably shouldn’t read into it too much. Much is contingent upon his performance in these next 10 days. Yogi Ferrell just earned a two-year contract in his first 10 days with the Mavericks. Lance has bounced around the league a bit and is looking for a home. With the Zach LaVine injury happening, Lance might have a role carved out for him here for the rest of the season.

I love the signing though. For many reasons. Here is why.

Lance Stephenson can replace the shots Zach LaVine had.

Zach LaVine going down for the season is a big blow for the Timberwolves. Lance Stephenson is the closest thing to replacing the number of shot attempts LaVine had in the offense. The Wolves are very limited in their offense outside of their big 3. Lance at one point was averaging over 11 shots a game. It is difficult to find a player that can feel comfortable to replace LaVine’s over 15 shots a game this season. Shabazz and Bjelica are expected to have greater roles as the season progresses, but they need someone who isn’t shy to take some shots.

Lance plays defense.

Lance’s claim to fame was his ability to get into the head and play defense against LeBron James in the playoffs. Lance has a lot of talent, especially defensively. He never backs down from his competition, something the Wolves struggle with. Tom Thibodeau will certainly not be caught yelling at Lance ‘Stop being soft!’. So him coming in for a short tour or for the remainder of the season could be just for his toughness and defensive ability.

Lance is going to come in and play for something. 

If there is one thing that the Wolves have struggled with this season is that they often look comfortable. They seem content with the way things have played out. They have patience. Lance Stephenson will not have that mentality. Lance is coming in for a roster spot. He will look to steal minutes and shots from other players. Sometimes this competition is necessary. With the amount of young players the Wolves have, many haven’t had to fight for shots or minutes. Lance will help change that attitude, even if just a little bit. In his previous non-guaranteed contracts, he has always taken an active role. He played great for Memphis late last season. I think he could play a similar role with the Wolves.

Lance is a veteran.

Lance has amazing experience in his career. Lance has played meaningful minutes in meaningful games. He has spent time now with a few teams around the league in different roles. He will serve as a reality check to the young players who have been given a lot on a silver platter this season. The Wolves faithful has been yearning for a veteran presence in the locker room. We finally got it.

Lance has the perfect personality to shake things up.

Lance is a dog. If he is here only 10 days, he will be the most annoying player in practice. The Wolves need a shake up if the playoffs are truly still a possibility. Why not take a chance on Lance? Many were interested in him last summer.

q2wk6fg

The Timber Rebuilder.

Ricky Rubio: Don’t hate the player, hate the game

Ricky Rubio has been the leading candidate for criticism this season, rightfully so. Rubio has never been able to shoot. All Wolves fans know it. The league knows it. Ricky even knows it. It seems to be haunting Rubio so much that he is passing up wide open lay ups.

We know Rubio’s limitations. I personally have given up on wishing that he would improve his shot. There was an opportunity this summer to work on his shot instead of playing for Spain. That said, I am taking Ricky for what he is.

Ricky is still a really good player. He is an above average defender. While he doesn’t have the greatest lateral quickness, his length disrupts opposing point guards and he plays passing lanes well. He is also a very gifted passer. He can find the open man. He makes the right decision when leading a fast break, as long as the decision doesn’t involve him scoring. He also is an exceptional free throw shooter. He is shooting 87% as of right now.

The thing I love most about Rubio is that he is truly a competitor. He loves to win. He is happy when he wins. He also forgets that he can’t shoot in clutch situations.

These are not invaluable skills to have. In a league filled with elite point guards, it is important to have a guy who can defend. And when you have three 20ppg scorers on your team, a guy to set them up is always helpful.

The question to me has always been, how did Rubio go from being a unicorn to a  50-cent dispensable-toy pony? What happened?

First, the system Rubio is playing in currently is terrible for him. Thibodeau has robbed Ricky of his creativity and autonomy to run an offense as he had while under Flip and Sam. Ricky usually started games with a shot-check when he took a couple quick midrange shots to see if he could make them and keep the defense honest. That no longer happens as much. Thibodeau has taken any comfort Ricky had left on the offensive end.

It also doesn’t help that Ricky is the 5th option on offense for the first time in his career. Last year, he at least had Tayshaun Prince or Kevin Garnett that could refuse the ball offensively. Ricky has a career low Usage % of 12.8%. His previous low was just above 16%.

The next reason Ricky has fallen off is that the game has completely moved completely behind the 3-point line. As the league has become progressively more 3-point oriented, Ricky’s value has slowly dropped.

In 2012-13 when Rubio had his highest Usage % of 21.2%, the New York Knicks led the league in 3-point attempts with 28.9 attempts per game. In 2013-14, Rubio had his best win share of 5.9 and the league’s leader in 3-point attempts was the Rockets with 26.6 attempts. Today, the Rockets, one of the leagues best teams, average almost 40 attempts.

The 13-14 season was the best season the Wolves have had in their playoff drought. The Wolves went 40-42. Ricky Rubio was still ‘developing his shot’ and the Wolves could fly under the radar having a point guard who couldn’t shoot because the league leader in 3-point attempts in the 13-14 season would be 12th best this season.

Rubio is currently in a system in which he can’t thrive and in a league that is trending in a way that exploits his weaknesses further and further. It is unfortunate. It makes me think of Ray Allen in a sense. What is Ray Allen was playing his best basketball in today’s NBA?  Would he be better than Steph Curry? Ray Allen played in an era that did not bode well with his strengths but still held most 3-point shooting records until Curry came along.

So please, don’t hate Ricky Rubio. Hate the game that has ruined Ricky Rubio. Had Rubio been in a different era, perhaps without the 3-point line, he would still be a unicorn.

The Timber Rebuilder.

 

 

Why I don’t attend the games

Once upon a time, I was a Timberwolves season-ticket holder. I was excited to see what Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio could accomplish. The product on the court was entertaining and we had hopes of making the playoffs. I also was single, working full-time and still living with my parents, so I had some extra money to spend. I always dreamed of being a season-ticket holder, so once I was financially able to become one, I didn’t hesitate.

I knew that part of having season tickets was that you could resell some for profits. I quickly realized that the only profitable games were against teams that Lebron James, Kobe Bryant, or Kevin Durant on them. There were games were it was hard to even give away the tickets. But reselling some of the games helped alleviate the costs of having season tickets.

Being a season-ticket member has its perks. You get cool stuff for free. They throw in extra tickets every once in a while. They have nice events for season-ticket holders to attend. All in all, you feel important. I loved the experience. I would love to be a season-ticket holder again.

But the issue lay in the Wolves being a losing team. The most losing team actually. The Wolves have the longest playoff-drought in the NBA and the worst overall winning percentage of any other franchise. Attending the games can be fun. It loses excitement though when you see more losses than wins in the 41 games you have access to.

Since my departure of being a season ticket holder, I typically attend games if I get lower-level tickets for free. I will tap into my ‘consumer mind’ later, but that is my tipping point. From the Timberwolves’ perspective, this is the absolute worst state a consumer can be in. I am unwilling to pay for their middle-tier product. For me, I enjoy watching the game from the convenience of my home. I can multi-task. I don’t have to worry about parking. I can save money. I can also tweet live during the game. I ultimately don’t need to work my schedule around attending the game, I can fit it in.

This brings me to the importance of the consumer dollar for entertainment. The golden rule is, a consumer will only pay for a product they are willing to fit their schedule around. Entertainment dollars are different than your regular dollars. Consumers spend their regular dollars on things they absolutely need. These are things like food, rent, etc. After the consumer has factored in all of these expenses, they can choose to spend their money on entertainment. This is if they wouldn’t rather save it. That means, it has to be better than other entertainment options and saving it.

Minnesota is not an easy place to sell entertainment because there are a ton of options. First off, we are one of the few cities to have all major sporting teams along with a major college in the same area. Then factor in all of the other things to do for entertainment like the movies or the mall or the many arcade-like restaurants in Minneapolis. Add to that the fact that the team is losing and essentially not playing for anything.

For the four seasons I haven’t been a season ticket holder, I have had Timberwolves sales reps reach out to me constantly to push tickets down my throat when I don’t have an appetite. Reps that are not genuinely interested in my needs and wants as a consumer call me. They read a script about a package or season ticket price that is essentially at face value. They mask it by putting a limited time on the offer and throwing in another pair of tickets “for free.”

The approach I am absolutely in love with is what the Bucks are doing. They are selling a $150 dollar package that is good until the Bucks win 10 games. So that means, you are guaranteed a minimum of 10 wins for $150 dollars. That is amazing! The Wolves are selling a 5-game package for the same price, in the upper level.

It baffles me that the Wolves continue to use old marketing tactics to try to attract a crowd that is over attending games that mean nothing. The in-game experience has not changed in years. The games are often empty as well. You stick out like a sore-thumb if you are cheering loudly.

I have commented before on the lack of attendance at Wolves games. Things need to get better. The problem is, the approach the organization is taking hasn’t changed. Here are some suggestions:

  • Offer something similar to what the Bucks are offering. It is exciting. It is new.
  • Update marketing tactics used to attract fans. A great one is ‘gift giving’. Give fans that have a high-factor of converting to a package or season-ticket member free tickets. It will increase the odds that they actually convert.
  • Upgrade the in-game experience. The same sounds have been used in the Target Center for as long as I can remember. Please, fix it.
  • Get creative with offerings. All of the packages seem the same. Give me something that is interesting.
  • Rebuild the fan base along with the team. Start attracting kids to the games. They will be the ones that will be the next generation of season ticket holders.
  • Change the brand of the organization to be one that is innovative and willing to take risks. This is one thing the Milwaukee Bucks do great. See my review of their in-game experience when I attended here. 

What are your thoughts? This is a blog post that is mainly reactionary and because a twitter rant wasn’t enough.

The Timber Rebuilder.