KARL TOWNS

Why We Expect Rubio and Shabazz Gone This Summer

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IM GEHRZ • JGEHRZ@STARTRIBUNE.COM

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JIM GEHRZ JGEHRZ@STARTRIBUINE.COM

The trade deadline is about 24 hours away and the main swirls of trade rumors have been around Ricky Rubio and Shabazz Muhammad for the Wolves. There have been rumors that the Wolves are listening to offers for Rubio but that he is going nowhere by tomorrow (it would make for an awkward Ricky Rubio Bobblehead night on Saturday). Several teams have reached out to the Wolves with strong interest in Shabazz Muhammad as well. While nothing looks plausible at this point, the summer will possibly present some new possibilities.

There are many micro and macro reasons why I expect the Wolves to trade Rubio and Bazz this summer. Lets start with the macro.

The league is moving towards a new Collective Bargaining Agreement in which the Salary Cap is going to rise a significant amount. A majority of the league will then be under the salary cap which means there will be a lot more flexibility with trades. Contrary to how teams approach the trade deadline, many teams will be exploring new strategies and looking to refresh their lineup. Typically during the trade deadline, deals are done by teams either in sell-mode or buy-mode. The summer is a more open canvas, especially with the salary cap increase.

Speaking of canvases, the Wolves seem to have an outline to a master piece without an artist to finish it. Flip laid the groundworks of a future championship contender and the Wolves don’t currently have the decision-makers in place to make deals to build around Towns, Wiggins, and LaVine. Chances are, the GM and Coach are for the Wolves this coming summer will have some major decisions to make. This team can start competing next season.

The biggest decision will come around Ricky Rubio. Personally, I think trading Ricky Rubio would be the biggest mistake this team can make. Outside of Towns, Ricky gives this team the biggest chance to win. His shooting woes seem to be overly-magnified as he makes everyone around him better. But the Wolves may take a different direction this summer. There are, what are perceived as, decent point guard prospects in the draft in Kris Dunn and Jamal Murray. The Wolves may look to add a solid back up point guard in Free Agency and try to play LaVine at the starting point guard position. I think either of these would be huge mistakes.

The only way I would be comfortable with moving Rubio this summer is through a trade that brought a better point guard to the team, maybe an Eric Bledsoe? I would imagine if Rubio is traded, the Wolves would try to bring in a point guard that fits better with their young core. This could be done with pairing Rubio with a guy who has some trade value, like Shabazz Muhammad.

Speaking of Shabazz – what is going to happen with him? As the season has played out, his ceiling with the Wolves is looking like a 6th man type of player. There is definitely an opportunity elsewhere where his role could be bigger. The tipping point though is his contract situation. Bazz will move into the final year of his Rookie Scale contract and will be eligible for a contract extension this summer into next season, if the Wolves choose to do so.

The Wolves will need to do some soul searching here. Gorgui Dieng will be in the same situation as Shabazz, but all signs point towards the Dieng getting an extension. He has played well alongside Towns and continued to improve his game. In the 2017 summer, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine will also be eligible for contract extensions. The summer after that, the Wolves will also look to lock in Karl-Anthony Towns. As flexibility is important when it comes to cap space, Shabazz may need to be traded while he still has some value and isn’t lost for nothing in free agency.

Looking forward to the summer, Muhammad will likely be used as a deal sweetener. Whether he is added to a deal that moves Rubio or as a piece that is dealt with to move up/ down the draft boards, Muhammad will likely be used to enhance a deal to favor the Wolves. Shabazz will be a low-risk, high-reward type of player who will be in the final year of their contract for a team and can be brought back if a team likes what they see in Shabazz.

I would hate to see Shabazz leave. He seems like the kind of player that has a significant role player-role on a contending team that can have series changing games. Unfortunately, his shooting hasn’t developed into what the Wolves need and neither has his defense. For those reasons, it has been hard to play him alongside Wiggins for long stretches of time.

The Wolves would be doing an injustice if they didn’t capitalize on Shabazz’s value this summer by adding another asset better suited for their young core. I still hope that the Wolves can figure out how to use Rubio still, but it may be time to part ways and add a piece that can benefit the Wolves long term as well. The trade rumors have started now as the trade deadline approaches. And while the Wolves will more than likely not make a trade by tomorrow, this summer could be a lot different.

The Timber Rebuilder.

The Stakes Have Never Been Higher

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As the Wolves enter the All-Star break with 17 wins, one more win than last season’s total, they find themselves in flux of where this season is going. The Wolves are all but out of the playoff hunt and tanking looks attractive in order to get another high lottery pick to add to the young and talented core. But the Wolves know that, eventually, they will have to start winning. And starting to win going into the end of the season, isn’t such a bad idea. Britt Robson mentioned at the end of his article in the MinnPost that ‘The Stakes Have Never Been Higher’ and it couldn’t be any more true. As displayed in the final game before the all-star break, the Wolves have arguably the brightest future in the NBA. Karl-Anthony Towns impressed again by posting a career-high 35 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 blocks. Towns broke Kevin Love’s franchise record for double-doubles by a rookie in this game. Fellow future star Andrew Wiggins ,aka Maple Jordan, posted 26 points by coming through in the fourth quarter with a lot of important scores. They showed just how good they could potentially be by beating a very good Toronto Raptors team.

As my favorite movie is Hitch with Will Smith, there is a line in that movie that resonates well with the Wolves situation. While I don’t have time to directly quote the movie, Hitch tells his client in a taxi cab something along the lines of “It no longer your job to make her like you. Its your job not to mess it up.” This couldn’t be any more true for the Wolves. The Wolves have two of the top prospects in the NBA in Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, and they arrived on a platter.

The job is now is to develop them and surround them with talent. It should be pretty easy. Right?

Towns and Wiggins will ultimately develop into good individual players even if you set them in an incubator for the next five years. The jury is still out on Andrew Wiggins as to if he will ACTUALLY live up to his potential. Bill Simmons mentioned that Wiggins could be the next ‘Rudy Gay’ in the league where their reputation around the league is that they are a great player but the local fans know just how bad they really are. Many complain that Wiggins isn’t rebounding or adding much else outside of scoring, which is valid. The Wolves could use more effort on the court from Wiggins. The Wolves could also use a reliable, consistent, 3-point shot from Wiggins. As of right now, Rubio has a better 3pt% than Wiggins. Matter of fact, I believe every starting guard in the NBA has a better 3pt% than Wiggins.

With that said, if Wiggins didn’t develop those things, he wouldn’t be a bad starter. He can absolutely score the ball. He can also absolutely defend for the most part. If he doesn’t develop those things, he likely will never be an all-star and will likely see his minutes cut as there will be some 3 and D wing who can be more efficient with their time on the floor. Chances are though, Wiggins will develop some of these skills. The kid is only 20. Be patient.

I’ve wanted to write an article about Karl-Anthony Towns but fear I may be too homerish. So I will stick to this paragraph. If Towns doesn’t develop anymore, he is an All-Star next season. Currently the only thing holding Towns back is Sam Mitchell and maybe foul trouble. But Towns is an absolute joy to watch. What is mind blowing to me the most though is that he has an incredible FG% (54% from the field) and shoots almost 50% in the midrange! So when Towns learns to take higher percentage shots and can take/ make more threes later in his career, what happens? *Insert head exploding hand motion here* The other thing I love about Towns is his attitude. He is smart, savvy, passionate, competitive, humble, and hilarious. I can’t wait until he wants to dominate his opponents like KG. Then what happens? *Again, mind blown* Shot chart below:

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So how to develop these guys? That is one of the major keys.

First, it is to take the rest of this season seriously. I know, the Wolves risk improving their record and getting a worse pick. But to me, I actually like the picks later in the top 10 better than 4-6 range, which I will talk about later when I talk about the surround portion of the t-log. The Wolves need to play the second half of the season as if they have a chance at the playoffs. Their young guys have to play together and pull out team wins similar to the recent games against the Raptors and Clippers. The momentum needs to be carried into next season in which the Wolves can truly make a playoff run. The Wolves have all the necessary pieces to be competitive this season. Health hasn’t been an issue for the first time in years. The veterans on the team seem to be rubbing off on the young guys. And there is already quite a bit of talent in Towns and Wiggins that can compete against many teams.

Next, the Wolves need to get in a new coaching staff this summer. There are horror stories about coaches who can’t connect with younger players because they are yelling at them too much. Sam Mitchell’s ‘old-school’ mentality is just not something that is going to work long term here. The Wolves need a coach that will grow with the team and focus on player development. There is a good amount of coaches that are available that fit that mold much better than Mitchell.

Lastly, the Wolves will have a crucial summer for their young guys. Kobe Bryant mentioned that he would love to work with Wiggins and LaVine this summer. I remain skeptical because I remember Wes Johnson spent his summers with Kobe and it didn’t seem to pay dividends, but I am not opposed to it. Regardless, Towns, Wiggins, & LaVine should be in the gym daily together trying to get better. They all need a consistent 3-pointer. They all need to become better defenders. And they all need to do this together. They likely will not be playing in the summer league this summer which is a blessing. It will give them an opportunity to hopefully expand their games to another level instead of trying to get used to the NBA-style of play.

Now on to surrounding Wiggins and Towns with talent. How does that happen?

Well, first keep the talent you have. Rubio, Bjelica, and Dieng are three younger guys that likely won’t get much better than they already are. And that is fine. As hard as Wolves fans are on Rubio, he is probably the single player that helps the team even be competitive outside of Towns at this point. Rubio has the second best Win Share on the team with 3.7, behind Towns’ 5.6 and right above Dieng’s 3.4. He makes the players around him better and is solid on defense. Dieng on the other hand is looking like the perfect role player. A guy who is effective off of the bench and can start when needed. He is also pairing well with Towns which is great for the future. Bjelica has struggled this season. But I believe he is just adjusting to the NBA still. I think his ability to shoot is too good to give up on right now. He is also an amazing playmaker which is valuable at his position.

The Wolves need to also develop and assess their current assets. Once they are assessed, they can turn them into talent or to trade bait. LaVine is on the fringe of this category in which I have mentioned him in the same category as Towns and Wiggins. Its hard to tell still if LaVine is that caliber of a prospect or will have a role player type of career. I will say he is a develop and keep type of asset. Then there is Muhammed, Jones, and Payne. Muhammed is in a situation where he maybe peaking in terms of value and the Wolves need to determine if they want to hold or sell this summer. Muhammed is approaching the point where the Wolves will need to decide if they want to extend him next season (along with Dieng). Once Muhammed is locked into that contract, his value will begin to diminish as he will be expected to produce to the level of that contract. Today, he is being paid for what he could be and the Wolves are enjoying that. But it will be decision time for Muhammed and Dieng this summer before they get big boy contracts.

Jones and Payne are still in ‘assess’ mode but their values are dropping dramatically. They aren’t able to contribute on a young team which makes them look bad. And they’ve looked bad in games too. To me, Payne is already a liability on the team and should be moved at any cost. Power Forward remains a big question for the Wolves and Payne will not be the answer. Jones could be something still, but will need time to play this season if there is room for him on the team. There is the need for a back up point guard on the roster now. The Wolves will address that need this summer whether its internally or externally.

What happens to the veterans? Prince and Miller will likely be gone next season. I would not be surprised if Garnett was gone but the hope is he is back next season in some sort of capacity. In an ideal world, Garnett moves into minority ownership and/ or begins to make personnel decisions. I have to begin to wonder if Pekovic will retire due to his inability to be healthy. If not, the Wolves are likely stuck with him for a very long time unless someone wants to take a chance on him. Kevin Martin is an interesting piece of the puzzle. I am opposed to trading Martin at the trade deadline and more inclined to trading him this summer or during the season next year. He will be a $7M expiring contract at the end of next season. Martin then becomes an asset to someone as he expires and can still actually play. Packaging him with Muhammed could score the Wolves a decent power forward for next year.

Then on to the 1st-round pick. The NBA draft is easily my favorite part of the season. As a Wolves fan, its what I have become. And when the Wolves are in the bottom 5 teams in the league, its hard for me to not say ‘tank!’. But the Wolves have to get better and the 5th pick is almost no-mans land in this draft. The best talent is in the top 2 picks. And while I am intrigued by Dragan Bender, he isn’t the next Porzingis. I would rather get a guy like Ivan Rabb, Diamond Stone, or even Buddy Hield. This is a draft where I would rather pick 7 to 12 than from 4-6. It sounds crazy but the Wolves need a sure-thing role player and not a high-upside, high-bust potential prospect. Bender, Murray, and Dunn all fit that bill. Its early to tell where a lot of these guys will go now though. But I will definitely cover more this summer when we know where we are picking and the players have declared for the draft.

Coming back out of the weeds, this should be pretty simple. Start winning now. Start building around Towns and Wiggins. Surround them with good players. Based on Towns and Wiggins’ performances this season, this team is capable of making a playoff push next season. And if they don’t next season, at least in the future. And if they don’t then, the Minnesota Timberwolves organization really, really messed up.

Just a friendly reminder, even though I maybe mention this in every other t-log, the Wolves hold the longest-active playoff drought in the NBA at 11 seasons, soon to be 12.

The Timber Rebuilder.

A Morale Victory

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The Wolves dropped a close game last night to the Eastern Conference leading Cleveland Cavaliers. Although it will be chalked up as a loss, the young Wolves on the floor put together an effort that can be taken as a morale victory. Losing 114-107 on the road without Kevin Garnett against the Eastern Conference Champs is a better than what was expected.

There were areas in which the Wolves could’ve played better. For whatever reason, Tristan Thompson did what he wanted against Dieng and Bjelica in the second half. The Wolves couldn’t keep up with the Cavaliers three point shooting. The Wolves had countless opportunities to take the lead but when it mattered, they didn’t take care of the basketball. And the Wolves defense just wasn’t solid overall. Sam Mitchell didn’t help the cause as he let the Wolves entire bench play against the Cavs starters in the fourth quarter in which the lead got out of control. But when the Wiggins and Towns came back in, the Wolves made a come back that nearly caused an upset.

Beyond that, this is the main this that stuck out in the game last night:

Karl-Anthony Towns: 26 points & 11 rebounds

Zach LaVine: 21 points off the bench

Andrew Wiggins: 20 points

This was basically what Wolves fans were waiting for all season. A game where the young stars collectively shined together. Each played to their strengths and were major reasons why the Wolves were in the game. As Karl Towns and Andrew Wiggins are well on their way to be the youngest two players to lead their team in scoring, last night was a reminder of just how much talent is on this team.

The great thing is, the Wolves did this with no one taking more than 16 shots. And they did it in their own personal elements. Towns was going inside and outside. Wiggins was slashing. LaVine was hitting long twos and getting his points in transition.

The other beautiful thing that occurred in this game was that Wiggins, LaVine, Towns, Dieng, and Muhammed all scored in double-figures. This was likely the first time all of them have done that collectively in one night. To see all of the Wolves young players put it together like this tonight was a sight to see. Even if the Wolves lost this one, it was absolutely one to remember.

P.S. Kevin Love had 11 points too.

The Timber Rebuilder.

It Takes More Than Talent

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First off, I am back. I was traveling for a month’s time and finally back in my groove. School is going to be intensified this semester, but will always look to continue contributing.

In my time away, the Wolves have struggled. I have followed from a distance. Excuses can’t be made like years past. The team is healthy, heck – even Nikola Pekovic is playing. A lot of the players have gotten minutes. And while a lot of guys have been able to showcase their talents, the Wolves have underwhelmed over half way through the season. The Wolves showed promise early on, starting the season 8-8 and the West has been weaker than most seasons. Somehow, the Wolves find themselves at 13-30 without many excuses.

Before Flip Saunders passed, he made an emphasis on building a winning culture. Flip wanted to bring in guys who wanted to win and change the identity of the franchise. He was very intentional about every guy he brought in to surround the young core. While it looked like the Wolves were headed in the right direction early, somewhere there was a collapse in that vision. There was a pivotal point in the season where the Wolves decided to have a ‘moment of truth’ type of meeting instead of practice. The veterans seemed to be blaming the young guys and the young guys pointed fingers at the head coach. The Wolves fan base has found an easy-out in blaming Sam Mitchell, and while it can be valid, the issue is bigger than that.

The Wolves have the talent. The Wolves have the assets. Yes, they are inexperienced, but this team can compete. But the culture hasn’t been established. And a valid concern is that the right personnel is not that to establish that culture. As learned in business school, ‘Culture eats Talent’. The Wolves are going through the necessary bumps and bruised to build a winning culture. But it will truly be how the Wolves franchise react to the adversity that defines the culture. The culture is in jeopardy as the Wolves now have the worst franchise winning percentage in the league.  Will the Wolves let that define them?

To get away from that, the Wolves need to leverage this experience this season. They need to get the most out of their talent now. The front office also needs to make decisions on who is a part of the future here and what part do they play in it? Once that is decided, the coaching staff needs to implement that vision in developing the players to get them in that role. From the looks of it, the coaching staff has failed at this or the front office has yet to determine these roles. Shabazz Muhammed is the best example of this as of late. Shabazz’s future may be as a 6th man, but isn’t a 6th man in the future more valuable if he has starting experience? The opportunity is there for him to start. Even if he doesn’t succeed as a starter, although it did last season, he will gain the necessary experience to become a player off the bench who plays like a starter while the first five are resting. The mishandling of Shabazz has been frustrating in that sense. But the same can be said about how most of the young players have been handled.

The Wolves need to also develop an identity. A brand of basketball. What will opponents think of the Wolves when they play them? It shouldn’t be automatic win or young players. The Wolves need to be good at something and be better than their opponents at it. Whether it be in the fast break or on the defensive end. It seems like the talent is there to be good at those things, but yet the Wolves still haven’t been able to be consistently good at them. There is plenty of time in the season to develop this, but it needs to be intentionally done.

The Wolves lost a big lead last night against the Pelicans and it just screamed to me that ‘it takes more than talent.’ The Wolves let Anthony Davis do what he wanted whenever he wanted. They didn’t play defense. And when the lead was gone, there was no question that the Wolves wouldn’t come back to reclaim it.

These are just my thoughts after a month of observing and not writing. The summer will likely bring in another young talented player, but it may mean nothing if that player is brought into talent. The Wolves need more guys with character. They need an identity. They need chemistry. Teams that try to win fast by acquiring talent really fast never win immediately. It takes more than talent.

Pekovic is Coming Back: Where Does He Fit?

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Nikola Pekovic has been officially cleared for full contact practice, meaning he should be returning soon. The bruising big man wears his ‘injury-prone’ tag proudly next to his ‘overpaid’ label. But fans still love Pek. He scares opponents with his size and his tattoos. While he doesn’t play defense, when healthy he is one of the more offensively-gifted centers in the game today. He has a nice post game and before he had his ankle issues, he developed something that looked like a jump shot.

Pekovic got injured a little bit after signing a 5-year, $60 million contract extension mainly because the Wolves wanted to secure the big man to play alongside Kevin Love. Flash forward and now Kevin Love is gone, Kevin Garnett is back, and the Wolves drafted one of the most talented players at the same position in Karl-Anthony Towns. Gorgui Dieng still remains as well, who was originally drafted to back up Pekovic to balance out defensively.

Pek finds himself potentially as the 3rd-string center on the team. He has too big of a contract and is injured too often to be traded at this point. So where does Pek fit in to the Wolves rotation? To preface what we think, we must note that Sam Mitchell will probably do exactly the opposite. Sam Mitchell’s rotations have been head-scratching at best and no one knows how he feels about Pekovic and how he will manage his injury/ playing time.

While things in Minnesota look bleak for Pekovic, he may actually be in an ideal situation. He was being overplayed before which caused him to keep getting injured. The Wolves no longer lack depth in their front court so seeing Pekovic play 10-15 minutes a night may be in the best interest of both parties. Pekovic matching up against opposing benches would also be in the Wolves’ favor as he may as well eat them alive while not having to worry much defensively.

Pekovic returning would mean the Wolves could see Gorgui Dieng get more minutes at the power forward position alongside KAT. Especially on Garnett rest days, Dieng and Towns could start alongside each other and Pekovic could take minutes at the 5 while rotating between the three big men. This would reduce minutes, hopefully, for Adrien Payne and the now struggling Bjelica. Even if Payne or Bjelica get time, both fit well with Pekovic offensively as they both like to spend time behind the 3-point line, opening up the paint for Pekovic. Pekovic will also work well on pick and rolls with LaVine and the emerging Tyus Jones.

In summary we should see rotations as such:

With Garnett (Minutes in parentheses)

C – Towns (28)/ Dieng (10)/ Pekovic (10)

PF – Garnett (15) / Dieng (14) / Bjelica (5) / Payne (4)

Without Garnett

C – Towns (33)/ Pekovic (12)/ Dieng (3)

PF – Dieng (30)/ Bjelica (9)/ Payne (9)

The entire Bjelica and Payne situation seems to be still in flux. Depending on the matchups and who is playing well, one or the other or both could play. But Dieng should spend more time at the 4 with Garnett out and Pekovic still can play around 10-12 minutes a game.

But where does Pekovic fit into the Wolves long-term? The Wolves obviously have Karl-Anthony Towns and Gorgui Dieng as their centerpieces in the front court. Trading Pekovic could be an option. There has been talks that the Bulls would be interested in trading Noah for Pekovic since Noah will be a free agent this summer. There is also the possibility that Pekovic retires early and his contract clears off of the Wolves’ books, but it seems unlikely. 

The Wolves will we’d to utilize him until either his contract expires or until he has some sort of trade bake.  He eventually (17-18 season) will be an expiring contract, in which he will have value in that sense. Trading an expiring contract of that size ($11.6 million) could add a nice piece to the roster, especially since it’ll be a time in which the Wolves should be competitive. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. 

Let us know your thoughts on this. A healthy Pekovic regardless will be good for the Wolves. We hope he can remain healthy, even if he is never the same player again. 

Start a Team with Davis or Towns?

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For Karl-Anthony Towns, the present is absolutely a gift. When Towns was drafted, he was picked mostly on his IQ and potential instead of what he could immediately bring to a team. Many didn’t expect Towns to start, let alone be a front runner in the Rookie of the Year race. Now the internet is making arguments that Towns should maybe even be an All-Star.

KAT is producing at levels that puts him in line with Hall of Famers. Towns has a PER that should end up in the top 10 all time for a rookie here. Towns is doing this despite playing only a year in college whilst many others on this list played at least a couple years of college basketball before entering the NBA. To add to that, Towns is playing less than 30 minutes, much less than most of those on the previous Rookie PER list. Towns’ combination of potential due to his age and production is uncanny to what the league has seen before.

While it may not be saying much, Towns in a short time-span has been the most productive player on the Wolves’ young team. All advanced statistics point towards him being the most valuable player on the floor for the Timberwolves. He has been consistent for the most part in this young season. He is second on the Wolves in scoring and leads the team in rebounds, blocks, and field goal %.

The cremé de la cremé of NBA prospects though happens to be Anthony Davis. Davis was in contention of the MVP award last season in only his third season. Davis put up monstrous numbers, putting up 24.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 2.9 blocks a game while leading the Pelicans to the playoffs. The unibrow has been more exposed though this season as the team has struggled to gain traction and improve any. Davis is still managing to put up similar numbers nonetheless. Davis is an outstanding defender, incredible rim protector, and can score in multiple ways. Both guys are products of the University of Kentucky, in which their head coach John Calipari prepared both of them to carry NBA franchises.

So, if you had to build a team around one of these guys, Anthony Davis or Karl-Anthony Towns, who do you take?

A couple of things immediately. There isn’t a right answer to this question. Both are incredible assets. There are many variables to the ‘starting a franchise’ question. What is your team’s strategy? When do you want to win? Who are the players around this specific player? Many more. Just have fun with the debate.

The obvious choice is Davis. Anthony Davis has a few things that edge Towns right away. Davis is a better player now. He is a better scorer. Better rebounder. Better shot blocker. He is a sure thing. To mitigate risk, the easy choice is Davis. He is still very young at only 22 years old. He has tons of potential still. He is developing a jump shot and can safely put the ball on the floor for a big man. He is also a freak athlete, which can be a gift and a curse as his career progresses.

Towns has a couple things going for him, but nothing that truly gives him a great advantage over Davis today. The case for Towns is heavily dependent on his potential on both ends of the floor. Towns could be about as good a defensive anchor as Davis. Towns’ offense game though is more versatile as he could be better at creating his own shot already. Towns also has a jump shot that demands respect and extends over the 3-point line. Towns being a defensive presence that can shoot is one of the most unique combinations a player at his position can possibly be.

While many would end the debate there, there should be a case made for Towns even over simply his potential. As mentioned before, the dependence on Davis’ athleticism can sometimes be a hinderance later in his career. Seeing the drastic drop off in athletic big men’s games like Dwight Howard, Amar’e Stoudemire, or even Kevin Garnett, can be alarming. Towns have less dependence on his athletic ability and more so on his basketball IQ suggests that his game could have the longevity in his career similar to that of Tim Duncan and Dirk. A lot of times athletic players are forced to reinvent their games midway through their careers while more IQ reliant players seem to have more consistency in the long run.

Most GM’s in the NBA would probably take Davis because it is safe. But a more bold, forward-thinking GM would probably build around Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns is a more high risk, high reward choice. I would imagine that more than 1/4 of General Managers by next season will want to start a franchise with Towns over Davis.

 

Kevin Garnett’s Farewell Mini-Tour

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The 2015-2016 season has been overshadowed by the ‘Kobe Bryant Farewell Tour’ after announcing his retirement. While Kobe is all-deserving, there are many other players that don’t require the attention for their egos. The end is looming for future Hall-of-Famers like Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, and Kevin Garnett, as they represent the end of the Golden Age of the power forward position. Each player has revolutionized the position in their own ways and leaving their own legacies. Kevin Garnett’s road to the end is unique compared to the roads taken by Kobe, Duncan, and Dirk. Garnett is the only one of the four to play for more than one franchise.

While NBA team’s marketing departments capitalize on Kobe Bryant’s arrivals in their respective cities, Garnett’s unofficial tour is seemingly shorter and more intimate. Even though Garnett has  another year on his contract after this season and hasn’t made any indications of retiring, the number of games he has remaining seem more limited than that. Garnett also isn’t putting up the numbers that would infer that he could play beyond this season. KG isn’t going to advertise that the end is near, but seems like he would prefer his retirement party to be amongst those that are near and dear to him. We are calling it the Mini-tour not only because Mini-tour has ‘Minny’ in it (cue the drums), but because Garnett is visiting, maybe for the last time, the cities he spent time in that led him back home.

Garnett is going out of the league the way that he has led his entire career, selfless. KG is spending his final games investing in the future of the games’ of the young Timberwolves core. It’s clear the Wolves are not chasing a championship and Garnett seems fine with that. He isn’t spending the end of his career chasing rings like many other veterans. He is teaching, selflessly. He still plays with the same passion and grit that he always has played with. He still talks smack better than anyone. But what Garnett’s farewell tour represents is more romantic than cinematic.

The Masterminds in the NBA Front Office snuck in back-to-back games against Garnett’s former teams as the Wolves take a quick road trip out East. It didn’t make sense that the Wolves would play in New York one day, come back home, just to fly back to Brooklyn for their next game. There is deep wisdom in it all. The Wolves take on the Brooklyn Nets in an early matchup Sunday at 12pm CT. Then the Wolves take on the Celtics on Monday at 6:30pm. We all know KG rests on the backend of back-to-backs, but the way this is configured, we may see an exception.

First, most back-t0-back games occur with a start time about 24 hours within each other. This one has an added six hours for what it’s worth. The next thing to point out is the Wolves play the Nets first and then the Celtics. KG’s legacy with the Nets isn’t necessarily as historic as his with the Celtics, being that KG won his championship with the Celtics. So it would be odd if Garnett missed the backend game against the Celtics since he accomplished arguably more as a Celtic than as a Wolf, depending on how you measure accomplishments.

Regardless how you measure accomplishments, Garnett has definitely accomplished a lot. Garnett has become the all-time leader in defensive rebounds, a recent accomplishment. To KG’s versatility, he is the only player to ever have 25,000 points, 10,000 rebounds, 5,000 assists, 1,500 blocks and 1,500 steals in their career. He is tied with the making the most NBA First Team All-Defense, being on that team 9 times. Looking at how consistent Garnett has been through his career, he is also the all-time leader in seasons played with 20.

Garnett playing 20 seasons is quite incredible. For many ’80’s babies’, especially Timberwolves fans, Garnett was one of the most influential players to play the game in their generations. Garnett continues to make an deep impact today, regardless of his age and regardless of the stage in his career. While a return to Brooklyn doesn’t seem to be too crazy for Garnett being that he spent a year and a half there, his impact anywhere is something that demands respect. The Wolves still present Garnett last in player introductions, usually reserved for the team’s best player. And while KG doesn’t have the knees to goal-tend shots that come after a whistle from opposing teams, his pre-game rituals have lasted the test of time and are nostalgic.

So will Garnett play both games in the back-to-back? Although we are proclaiming this to be the ‘Kevin Garnett Farewell Mini-Tour’, we have to believe Garnett is thinking about this stretch of games just as much. Well maybe not. But the game to consider the most is definitely the Celtics game. Boston fans love Garnett almost as much as Wolves fans do. There sure will be a lot of encouragement for him to play under the circumstances that Wolves only visit Eastern Conference teams once.

While we want to use Garnett’s quote “Anything is Possible!’ to say he could play the two games on Sunday and Monday, he has missed meaningful games before. Many Wolves fans remember Garnett missing his first game against Minnesota with the Celtics due to an abdominal strain. The game was a sellout and the Timberwolves Organization was forced to send tickets to the fans in attendance to compensate for the disappointment. Garnett isn’t married to the idea that he needs to play in what could be his last time in Brooklyn or Boston. He does what he wants and probably could retire knowing he missed this game for his health.

We will definitely be watching closely. Both cities will likely host tributes for Garnett when they play the Wolves. If he doesn’t play in Boston, it is at least a reminder to appreciate the last few games Garnett will play, in light of all the craziness surrounding this season. It’s a good idea to step back and think what the game may look like without Garnett suiting up again and hitting his head against the basket pads. The game will likely never be the same, so enjoy.

News & Notes

  • While the Wolves have gone 2-8 over the last 10 games, one thing we haven’t discussed in a while is Ricky Rubio’s health. Rubio has played 20 games this season while only playing 22 last year. That is a positive. So Wolves fans, as Ricky says: Change your face, be happy. Enjoy!
  • Andrew Wiggins had 32 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists in the win over the Kings. Wiggins is the youngest player in Timberwolves history to have 30 points, 10 boards, and 5 assists. Yes he did it younger than Kevin Garnett, Kevin Love, and even Ndudi Ebi.
  • Wolves fans voted that the Kings would beat the Wolves in our Twitter poll ( @Timberrebuilder), a first where the homer-Wolves fans didn’t believe we would win.
  • Couple of tweets we liked from other people that are worth sharing:

Big fan of Brad Stevens, head coach of the Celtics. Will take that compliment.

Karl-Anthony Towns is amazing. #NBAvote

The Timber (re)Builder

 

Why The Wolves Have Struggled

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The Wolves have dropped eight of the last nine games after being at .500 at 8-8. The Wolves now find themselves at 9-16 a few games over the quarter mark of the season. The last eight losses have come to the Clippers and Nuggets twice each, Magic, Blazers, Suns, and Knicks. The lone win was against the Lakers in overtime. All the losses were winnable games where the biggest margin of loss was 12, the rest all within 10 points. Some games were games the Wolves held strong leads and lost them. Other games the Wolves found ways to fight back into them and get semi-close towards the end.

A couple things we want to do is examine what has changed after starting 8-8. We wanted to answer, what isn’t working? What are the problems? What can we point out? There is a heavy emphasis on plus/ minus in these game stats. We do this because we want to see the difference a player is making on the court vs their opponents. Lineups are important to this, but plus/ minus seems to be a good way to analyze what that player has done while on the floor.

  • Starters not competing: The Wolves starting lineup is not competing with other teams. The Net +/- in every loss has been massively negative. The starts have a Net average +/- of -24.875 in the eight losses, while the bench has an average of -2.625. The bench is surprisingly keeping the Wolves in the game, mostly thanks to the strong play of LaVine and Dieng. In the one win, the Wolves starters demolished the Lakers starters. I would like to believe this would be a simple change of moving LaVine into the starting lineup.
  • Wiggins’ Net +/- : it’s -59 in the eight losses the Wolves have suffered recently, which is the worst on the team. He has also had a negative +/- in each of the last 9 games. Wiggins needs to work on getting his teammates involved so that the overall team does better when he is on the floor. To Wiggins’ defense he has one of the highest usages on the team (LaVine has surpassed him) and logs the most minutes so it’s hard to keep these numbers respectable when he is in the game when the Wolves lose most of their leads. Outside of that, Wiggins is going to have to start finishing around the basket at the same rate as he was before all of the losses.
  • Bjelica is struggling: Bjelica was a big reason why the Wolves’ bench was one of the best in the league. He was consistently coming in to the game and nailing threes. In the eight losses, Bjelica has averaged less than 4 points. His shot has struggled in this stretch of games: Screen Shot 2015-12-17 at 12.56.01 PMAs you can see above, Bjelica is only scoring from the outside or near the basket. The shots outside the arc have not been falling for him. Ever since he went out with a knee injury, he hasn’t quite been the same.  With Bjelica not able to knock down as many threes, and quite honestly passing up on a lot of open ones, the spacing on the floor is bad. When the spacing is bad, more shots are contested. When more shots are contested, your field goal percentage dips. When your field goal percentage dips, you typically lose games. So if you are catching the drift here, a struggling Bjelica is not helping the cause.
  • Defense: The Wolves defense has assisted in the resurrection of careers for Randy Foye and Aaron Afflalo. The team is not defending by any stretch of the imagination. Teams are getting wide open looks from three. Ball movement collapses the Wolves on D almost exactly as it should. This is where Prince did help in the starting lineup almost where Martin has made the Wolves less reputable in that category. If the Wolves want to win, they have to defend. In the eight losses, the Wolves have allowed a higher FG% than they have shot in all but one game.
  • Kevin Martin: The replacement of Martin into the starting lineup has been the most obvious thing that has changed. The Wolves won 3 straight after they put Martin in the starting lineup, but it could not be credited to Martin. The Wolves faced the winless Sixers, Cousin-less Kings, and a Hawks team that should’ve been a loss. Martin has scored well, but has done it in a very inconsistent fashion. On three occasions, he has scored 2 points or less. He has struggled defensively, which shouldn’t come as a surprise. It probably doesn’t help either that trade rumors are swirling around him. Main point is, he probably should be in the starting lineup let alone on the roster at this point.
  • Prince less, Bazz more: In the eight losses, Shabazz Muhammad has had a net +/- of 1, where Prince has a -34. Yet, Bazz is only averaging less than two minutes more a game than Prince. Prince is not the player he once was at all. In this stretch of games he has averaged 1 point and a little over a rebound a game. His now average, if not below average, defense is not worth his poor effort on offense. The Wolves should see Shabazz in games more than Prince period. This is the influence behind all of our #FreeShabazz tweets.

The Wolves are approaching an inflection point, similar to previous years. We enter the year thinking we can compete and then we realize, ‘dang, we aren’t that good.’ Mitchell has mentioned that playing the veterans more would help the team win an 8th seed, and I have to respectfully disagree. The veterans on this team should continue to be used more so as mentors than rotation players.

There is time to turn the season around if the Wolves can put the right players together. Sam Mitchell’s recent comments about playing veterans 28 minutes and that development doesn’t happen during the season are not encouraging. First step will be a starting lineup that competes and defends. I don’t think the Wolves have the personnel to do that though and would require some trades. The Wolves need to pursue a 3 and D guy to help on the perimeter and take Kevin Martin’s minutes. But the Wolves entered this slew of games with an amazing opportunity, a sequence of winnable games. They were able to measure themselves against teams with more or less similar records. Unfortunately, they’ve lost nearly all of them.

The Wolves are still figuring things out. They are still trying to understand how to incorporate Karl Towns into the offense. Ricky Rubio’s jump shot remains inconsistent. Sam Mitchell seems to always be defensive when approached by the media about his rotations. These things are season long issues and not necessarily the cause of the losses at this point. But above is what has changed over the last 9 games. The Wolves are no longer a great defensive team. Their starters seem to not be clicking. And members of their bench are not as reliable as they once were.

Wolves Week 7 T-Cap (Highlights)

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If you’ve been a Wolves fan for the last couple years, one of the more fun things to do is watch highlights of our individual prospects. Mainly because we love to see them perform well but also because the outcome of the game doesn’t seem to matter. Not to mention, Mondays and Youtube seem to be a wonderful mix. Its how you stay positive when your team is rebuilding. So I’ve decided moving forward, we will just highlight the Wolves results from the previous Monday through Sunday and any individual highlights you can rewatch here. It’ll be a weekly segment that we will call your T-cap. Enjoy!

Monday, December 7th: Clippers 110 Timberwolves 106 – L

Zach LaVine: 21 points

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjIxkTkr9Ms

Karl-Anthony Towns: 18 points, 5 rebounds, 2 blocks

 

Wednesday, December 9th: Lakers 122 Timberwolves 123 OT – W

Karl-Anthony Towns: 26 points, 14 rebounds, 3 blocks

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D37D_Gi2hjI

Andrew Wiggins: 19 points

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-iL562q6Bx4

 

Friday, December 11th: Wolves 108 Nuggets 111 OT – L

Andrew Wiggins: 22 points

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZlUA_YCuSw

Karl-Anthony Towns: 14 points, 9 rebounds, 3 blocks

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLrU8P6FlGg

 

Sunday, December 13th: Wolves 101, Suns 108 – L

Zach LaVine: 28 points

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMOaB4TWCJA

 

Wolves Record: 1-3 (9-14 Overall)

BONUS!

Tyus Jones: 27 points & 8 assists in NBDL Debut for the Idaho Stampede

Upcoming Schedule

Dec. 15th vs Nuggets

Dec. 16th @ Knicks

Dec. 18th vs Kings

Dec. 20th @ Nets

Recap: Overall, Wolves drop 3 of 4 games in the last week. They stay close in most games, taking two of them to overtime. Wolves are able to keep close but are not able to compete at this point. This week’s schedule looks light, but predicted a 2-2 split.

 

Is Wiggins Too Comfortable?

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When Andrew Wiggins was brought in as the main part of the Kevin Love-trade, he served as the official face of the Timberwolves’ new re-re-rebuilding phase (a major influence to the name of the blog). The first phase started with Al Jefferson first in the Kevin Garnett departure. Then Kevin Love and to a lesser extent Ricky Rubio served as the poster boys for the next phase when Jefferson was traded. With minimal pressure to win now, Wiggins finally got away from a lot of the pressure that has chased him around in his pre-NBA career. Wiggins came in with one expectation: develop.

Last year, by definition was a success as there were no set expectations to compete or win games necessarily. Wiggins was 2nd in the league in minutes played with 2969 minutes, just behind James Harden. He started and played in every game, maybe not by choice, but he got the experience needed to satisfy fans. He showed flashes of greatness and won Rookie of the Year, mainly because he got the playing time due to opportunity and injuries. The Wolves ended up being the worst team in the NBA due to their reliance on rookies like Wiggins, but it seemed to be something that would be beneficial for the development of the team.

Compared to last season, Wiggins has emerged as the vocal point of the offense this year. Mitchell runs the offense through Wiggins in which last season the game had to come to him most times. Wiggins is scoring more and has a higher usage % (22.6 to 28.5 this season) all while averaging one minute less a game. Wiggins is averaging 21 points this season while he averaged 16.9 last season. His assists and rebounds have also increased slightly, but not to where you would like for a player that has a 28.5% usage on the court. One thing that Wiggins has truly improved though has been his free throw shooting. Wiggins is currently 10th in the NBA with 7.6 free throw attempts. Although he could definitely be a better free throw shooter, he is attacking the basket more which opens up his game.

That said, his advanced stats have suffered even though the team’s performance has improved. Andrew’s Win Share has dropped from 2.1 last season to 1.1 this season and box plus/minus from -2.3 last to this -2.5 this season. Wiggins is constantly finding himself in the negative in the Plus/ Minus categories and you have to begin to wonder, should he be on the floor as much? It’s hard to face this reality when it comes to a franchise cornerstone. But the motivation to produce on the floor is important from the guy who spends the most time on the court for your team. But as Wiggins goes, the Wolves go. In losses, Wiggins has a -12.6 and in wins he has a +10.6.

Wolves fans have pointed a lot of fingers for the blame of the poor play in recent games. The poorMany fingers have pointed to Sam Mitchell, a few to Ricky Rubio and his health, but not many to Andrew Wiggins. He is absolutely  still developing and still has a lot of room for improvement. But the Wolves need more from Wiggins if they are going to continue to improve. He seems to be in a position where his has a long leash with the coaching staff. He is able to play through mistakes, a privilege most if not all the young players on the Wolves don’t have.

Should the leash get shorter? The way Sam Mitchell approaches this is crucial. But Wiggins seems to be playing without a fire lit under him, unless it’s a close game of course. He still vanishes for minutes during the game. He also doesn’t seem much more than a scorer at this point and if he isn’t scoring, he is a liability on the floor. So should Sam Mitchell be playing other players in Wiggins’ place to get Wiggins to ‘earn’ his minutes?

This may drive Wolves fans even more crazy. But Mitchell and the coaching staff need to find a way to get more out of Wiggins on the floor. They need to find a way to have Wiggins become more efficient on the floor. They can’t afford to have Wiggins to be a one-dimensional player who takes inefficient shots. It may be time to send Wiggins a message to motivate him. His inconsistent play could be due to the back injury which plagued him earlier this season so cutting back his minutes may benefit him health-wise as well. Sam Mitchell, who handled another number 1 pick in Andrea Bargnani terribly, will need to proceed with caution on how he deals with Wiggins’ development.

What needs immediate improvement? First and foremost, he needs to focus defensively. He needs to be a two-player at least. He has all the intangibles but still seems to not be the lock down defender he was advertised to be. His defensive rating is a 108, which has a lot to do with team defense as well, but is too high for what he is capable of doing. Wiggins will then need to improve his ball-handing in order to expand his offensive game. He finds himself taking a lot of long 2-point shots simply because he isn’t able to handle the ball and pass his defender.

Second-tier improvements needed for Wiggins is his shooting. Wiggins needs to improve his 3-point shooting and free-throw shooting. He is shooting a terrible 26.8% from beyond the arc. The only player worse on the T-Wolves with more than 10 attempts this season? Ricky Rubio. He is shooting 73% from the free throw line as well, not really that good for a guy who gets to the line as much as he does. After shooting, the Wolves need Wiggins to get involved in other aspects of the game. They need him to rebound and assist more. As a forward, his 5.9% Total Rebound% is laughable this season. Wiggins draws a lot of double teams, which means his 8.6% Assist % could definitely improve if he were making the right passes. You would imagine Wiggins would have more assists having big men like Towns and Dieng down low.

We don’t want this to be a ‘this is all Wiggins’ fault’ type of post. Wiggins has done a lot well this season. As mentioned before, he is getting to the line more often and has been really clutch in close games. He is the Wolves best scorer. He is also one of the most valuable pieces on this Wolves roster. He is crazy athletic and is scoring in a lot more ways this season. He should be commended for his performance.

But after having Wiggins having a -17 +/- against the Suns, it has ignited some questions from fans. Wiggins does seem a little too comfortable on the floor. Wiggins does need to provide more on the floor. Wiggins does have to take control of the team. At this given moment, the numbers Zach LaVine has produced haven’t been too far off from Andrew Wiggins’. This could be a testament to LaVine’s performance or showing that Wiggins’ isn’t meeting his development expectations. Sam Mitchell has the incredible responsibility to harness Andrew Wiggins’ potential and turn it into production. While super stars like Kobe Bryant praise Wiggins, the numbers haven’t shown that he is a win-producer. This will need to change as the Wolves continue to build around him.

The Timber Rebuilder.