KEVIN GARNETT

A Loss of Experience

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The Wolves have been one of the most active teams post-trade deadline. Seems like an oxymoron almost.

If you have stopped paying attention to transactions because the trade deadline is over, you’ve missed out on buyout season. The Wolves have been parting ways with the highly touted veterans that have groomed the young pups for a majority of the season.

First, the Wolves waived the oldest player in the NBA Andre Miller who ended up signing with the oldest team in the NBA, the San Antonio Spurs.

Miller played sparingly and showed signs of life, but it was difficult to watch him at times. The Wolves gave Miller the opportunity to go play for a contender going into the playoffs, which seems confusing as he signed with the team that had the worst record last season.

 

Next, the Wolves bought out the contract of veteran guard Kevin Martin.

Martin couldn’t get traded for a Q-tip this trade deadline and had a player option of around $7M for next season. It seems like ownership valued Kevin Martin’s request to play for a playoff team this season over what value he may provide the team next season. I personally believed that a $7M expiring contract this summer that could still add value to a team would be a valuable trade asset. The Wolves disagreed. Regardless, this means more minutes for LaVine and Wiggins for the rest of the season at the shooting guard position. It will be interesting to see if LaVine remains in the starting lineup or if Tayshaun Prince starts again. I would imagine it becomes matchup-based.

 

Also – you might’ve noticed Kevin Garnett on the bench, still talking smack.

Well it looks like Wolves fans may see more of this. It is looking like Garnett not playing again this season is actually a possibility.

This means a couple things. It means it seems possible KG will come back next season. Under what capacity, who knows. I can’t imagine Garnett retiring after shutting it down for a season.

The Wolves also managed to sign big man Greg Smith to a 10-day contract.

Greg Smith showed some promised with the Houston Rockets but has played in the D-league this season. This signing shows that the Bjelica injury is probably pretty serious and that the coaching staff just doesn’t trust Adreian Payne with minutes. It will be interesting to see what happens to Payne this summer. The Wolves traded a first round pick for him.

All in all, the Wolves added two years of NBA experience in Greg Smith and cut 29 years of experience in Andre Miller and Kevin Martin. Luckily the Wolves still have the 21 years of NBA experience on the bench in Garnett, but it would be great to have that on the floor.

The Timber Rebuilder

Side note: Planning to see the Bucks and Wolves face off in Milwaukee. Look forward to a review of the arena as I visit my 10th NBA Arena.

The Stakes Have Never Been Higher

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As the Wolves enter the All-Star break with 17 wins, one more win than last season’s total, they find themselves in flux of where this season is going. The Wolves are all but out of the playoff hunt and tanking looks attractive in order to get another high lottery pick to add to the young and talented core. But the Wolves know that, eventually, they will have to start winning. And starting to win going into the end of the season, isn’t such a bad idea. Britt Robson mentioned at the end of his article in the MinnPost that ‘The Stakes Have Never Been Higher’ and it couldn’t be any more true. As displayed in the final game before the all-star break, the Wolves have arguably the brightest future in the NBA. Karl-Anthony Towns impressed again by posting a career-high 35 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 blocks. Towns broke Kevin Love’s franchise record for double-doubles by a rookie in this game. Fellow future star Andrew Wiggins ,aka Maple Jordan, posted 26 points by coming through in the fourth quarter with a lot of important scores. They showed just how good they could potentially be by beating a very good Toronto Raptors team.

As my favorite movie is Hitch with Will Smith, there is a line in that movie that resonates well with the Wolves situation. While I don’t have time to directly quote the movie, Hitch tells his client in a taxi cab something along the lines of “It no longer your job to make her like you. Its your job not to mess it up.” This couldn’t be any more true for the Wolves. The Wolves have two of the top prospects in the NBA in Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, and they arrived on a platter.

The job is now is to develop them and surround them with talent. It should be pretty easy. Right?

Towns and Wiggins will ultimately develop into good individual players even if you set them in an incubator for the next five years. The jury is still out on Andrew Wiggins as to if he will ACTUALLY live up to his potential. Bill Simmons mentioned that Wiggins could be the next ‘Rudy Gay’ in the league where their reputation around the league is that they are a great player but the local fans know just how bad they really are. Many complain that Wiggins isn’t rebounding or adding much else outside of scoring, which is valid. The Wolves could use more effort on the court from Wiggins. The Wolves could also use a reliable, consistent, 3-point shot from Wiggins. As of right now, Rubio has a better 3pt% than Wiggins. Matter of fact, I believe every starting guard in the NBA has a better 3pt% than Wiggins.

With that said, if Wiggins didn’t develop those things, he wouldn’t be a bad starter. He can absolutely score the ball. He can also absolutely defend for the most part. If he doesn’t develop those things, he likely will never be an all-star and will likely see his minutes cut as there will be some 3 and D wing who can be more efficient with their time on the floor. Chances are though, Wiggins will develop some of these skills. The kid is only 20. Be patient.

I’ve wanted to write an article about Karl-Anthony Towns but fear I may be too homerish. So I will stick to this paragraph. If Towns doesn’t develop anymore, he is an All-Star next season. Currently the only thing holding Towns back is Sam Mitchell and maybe foul trouble. But Towns is an absolute joy to watch. What is mind blowing to me the most though is that he has an incredible FG% (54% from the field) and shoots almost 50% in the midrange! So when Towns learns to take higher percentage shots and can take/ make more threes later in his career, what happens? *Insert head exploding hand motion here* The other thing I love about Towns is his attitude. He is smart, savvy, passionate, competitive, humble, and hilarious. I can’t wait until he wants to dominate his opponents like KG. Then what happens? *Again, mind blown* Shot chart below:

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So how to develop these guys? That is one of the major keys.

First, it is to take the rest of this season seriously. I know, the Wolves risk improving their record and getting a worse pick. But to me, I actually like the picks later in the top 10 better than 4-6 range, which I will talk about later when I talk about the surround portion of the t-log. The Wolves need to play the second half of the season as if they have a chance at the playoffs. Their young guys have to play together and pull out team wins similar to the recent games against the Raptors and Clippers. The momentum needs to be carried into next season in which the Wolves can truly make a playoff run. The Wolves have all the necessary pieces to be competitive this season. Health hasn’t been an issue for the first time in years. The veterans on the team seem to be rubbing off on the young guys. And there is already quite a bit of talent in Towns and Wiggins that can compete against many teams.

Next, the Wolves need to get in a new coaching staff this summer. There are horror stories about coaches who can’t connect with younger players because they are yelling at them too much. Sam Mitchell’s ‘old-school’ mentality is just not something that is going to work long term here. The Wolves need a coach that will grow with the team and focus on player development. There is a good amount of coaches that are available that fit that mold much better than Mitchell.

Lastly, the Wolves will have a crucial summer for their young guys. Kobe Bryant mentioned that he would love to work with Wiggins and LaVine this summer. I remain skeptical because I remember Wes Johnson spent his summers with Kobe and it didn’t seem to pay dividends, but I am not opposed to it. Regardless, Towns, Wiggins, & LaVine should be in the gym daily together trying to get better. They all need a consistent 3-pointer. They all need to become better defenders. And they all need to do this together. They likely will not be playing in the summer league this summer which is a blessing. It will give them an opportunity to hopefully expand their games to another level instead of trying to get used to the NBA-style of play.

Now on to surrounding Wiggins and Towns with talent. How does that happen?

Well, first keep the talent you have. Rubio, Bjelica, and Dieng are three younger guys that likely won’t get much better than they already are. And that is fine. As hard as Wolves fans are on Rubio, he is probably the single player that helps the team even be competitive outside of Towns at this point. Rubio has the second best Win Share on the team with 3.7, behind Towns’ 5.6 and right above Dieng’s 3.4. He makes the players around him better and is solid on defense. Dieng on the other hand is looking like the perfect role player. A guy who is effective off of the bench and can start when needed. He is also pairing well with Towns which is great for the future. Bjelica has struggled this season. But I believe he is just adjusting to the NBA still. I think his ability to shoot is too good to give up on right now. He is also an amazing playmaker which is valuable at his position.

The Wolves need to also develop and assess their current assets. Once they are assessed, they can turn them into talent or to trade bait. LaVine is on the fringe of this category in which I have mentioned him in the same category as Towns and Wiggins. Its hard to tell still if LaVine is that caliber of a prospect or will have a role player type of career. I will say he is a develop and keep type of asset. Then there is Muhammed, Jones, and Payne. Muhammed is in a situation where he maybe peaking in terms of value and the Wolves need to determine if they want to hold or sell this summer. Muhammed is approaching the point where the Wolves will need to decide if they want to extend him next season (along with Dieng). Once Muhammed is locked into that contract, his value will begin to diminish as he will be expected to produce to the level of that contract. Today, he is being paid for what he could be and the Wolves are enjoying that. But it will be decision time for Muhammed and Dieng this summer before they get big boy contracts.

Jones and Payne are still in ‘assess’ mode but their values are dropping dramatically. They aren’t able to contribute on a young team which makes them look bad. And they’ve looked bad in games too. To me, Payne is already a liability on the team and should be moved at any cost. Power Forward remains a big question for the Wolves and Payne will not be the answer. Jones could be something still, but will need time to play this season if there is room for him on the team. There is the need for a back up point guard on the roster now. The Wolves will address that need this summer whether its internally or externally.

What happens to the veterans? Prince and Miller will likely be gone next season. I would not be surprised if Garnett was gone but the hope is he is back next season in some sort of capacity. In an ideal world, Garnett moves into minority ownership and/ or begins to make personnel decisions. I have to begin to wonder if Pekovic will retire due to his inability to be healthy. If not, the Wolves are likely stuck with him for a very long time unless someone wants to take a chance on him. Kevin Martin is an interesting piece of the puzzle. I am opposed to trading Martin at the trade deadline and more inclined to trading him this summer or during the season next year. He will be a $7M expiring contract at the end of next season. Martin then becomes an asset to someone as he expires and can still actually play. Packaging him with Muhammed could score the Wolves a decent power forward for next year.

Then on to the 1st-round pick. The NBA draft is easily my favorite part of the season. As a Wolves fan, its what I have become. And when the Wolves are in the bottom 5 teams in the league, its hard for me to not say ‘tank!’. But the Wolves have to get better and the 5th pick is almost no-mans land in this draft. The best talent is in the top 2 picks. And while I am intrigued by Dragan Bender, he isn’t the next Porzingis. I would rather get a guy like Ivan Rabb, Diamond Stone, or even Buddy Hield. This is a draft where I would rather pick 7 to 12 than from 4-6. It sounds crazy but the Wolves need a sure-thing role player and not a high-upside, high-bust potential prospect. Bender, Murray, and Dunn all fit that bill. Its early to tell where a lot of these guys will go now though. But I will definitely cover more this summer when we know where we are picking and the players have declared for the draft.

Coming back out of the weeds, this should be pretty simple. Start winning now. Start building around Towns and Wiggins. Surround them with good players. Based on Towns and Wiggins’ performances this season, this team is capable of making a playoff push next season. And if they don’t next season, at least in the future. And if they don’t then, the Minnesota Timberwolves organization really, really messed up.

Just a friendly reminder, even though I maybe mention this in every other t-log, the Wolves hold the longest-active playoff drought in the NBA at 11 seasons, soon to be 12.

The Timber Rebuilder.

A Morale Victory

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The Wolves dropped a close game last night to the Eastern Conference leading Cleveland Cavaliers. Although it will be chalked up as a loss, the young Wolves on the floor put together an effort that can be taken as a morale victory. Losing 114-107 on the road without Kevin Garnett against the Eastern Conference Champs is a better than what was expected.

There were areas in which the Wolves could’ve played better. For whatever reason, Tristan Thompson did what he wanted against Dieng and Bjelica in the second half. The Wolves couldn’t keep up with the Cavaliers three point shooting. The Wolves had countless opportunities to take the lead but when it mattered, they didn’t take care of the basketball. And the Wolves defense just wasn’t solid overall. Sam Mitchell didn’t help the cause as he let the Wolves entire bench play against the Cavs starters in the fourth quarter in which the lead got out of control. But when the Wiggins and Towns came back in, the Wolves made a come back that nearly caused an upset.

Beyond that, this is the main this that stuck out in the game last night:

Karl-Anthony Towns: 26 points & 11 rebounds

Zach LaVine: 21 points off the bench

Andrew Wiggins: 20 points

This was basically what Wolves fans were waiting for all season. A game where the young stars collectively shined together. Each played to their strengths and were major reasons why the Wolves were in the game. As Karl Towns and Andrew Wiggins are well on their way to be the youngest two players to lead their team in scoring, last night was a reminder of just how much talent is on this team.

The great thing is, the Wolves did this with no one taking more than 16 shots. And they did it in their own personal elements. Towns was going inside and outside. Wiggins was slashing. LaVine was hitting long twos and getting his points in transition.

The other beautiful thing that occurred in this game was that Wiggins, LaVine, Towns, Dieng, and Muhammed all scored in double-figures. This was likely the first time all of them have done that collectively in one night. To see all of the Wolves young players put it together like this tonight was a sight to see. Even if the Wolves lost this one, it was absolutely one to remember.

P.S. Kevin Love had 11 points too.

The Timber Rebuilder.

It Takes More Than Talent

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First off, I am back. I was traveling for a month’s time and finally back in my groove. School is going to be intensified this semester, but will always look to continue contributing.

In my time away, the Wolves have struggled. I have followed from a distance. Excuses can’t be made like years past. The team is healthy, heck – even Nikola Pekovic is playing. A lot of the players have gotten minutes. And while a lot of guys have been able to showcase their talents, the Wolves have underwhelmed over half way through the season. The Wolves showed promise early on, starting the season 8-8 and the West has been weaker than most seasons. Somehow, the Wolves find themselves at 13-30 without many excuses.

Before Flip Saunders passed, he made an emphasis on building a winning culture. Flip wanted to bring in guys who wanted to win and change the identity of the franchise. He was very intentional about every guy he brought in to surround the young core. While it looked like the Wolves were headed in the right direction early, somewhere there was a collapse in that vision. There was a pivotal point in the season where the Wolves decided to have a ‘moment of truth’ type of meeting instead of practice. The veterans seemed to be blaming the young guys and the young guys pointed fingers at the head coach. The Wolves fan base has found an easy-out in blaming Sam Mitchell, and while it can be valid, the issue is bigger than that.

The Wolves have the talent. The Wolves have the assets. Yes, they are inexperienced, but this team can compete. But the culture hasn’t been established. And a valid concern is that the right personnel is not that to establish that culture. As learned in business school, ‘Culture eats Talent’. The Wolves are going through the necessary bumps and bruised to build a winning culture. But it will truly be how the Wolves franchise react to the adversity that defines the culture. The culture is in jeopardy as the Wolves now have the worst franchise winning percentage in the league.  Will the Wolves let that define them?

To get away from that, the Wolves need to leverage this experience this season. They need to get the most out of their talent now. The front office also needs to make decisions on who is a part of the future here and what part do they play in it? Once that is decided, the coaching staff needs to implement that vision in developing the players to get them in that role. From the looks of it, the coaching staff has failed at this or the front office has yet to determine these roles. Shabazz Muhammed is the best example of this as of late. Shabazz’s future may be as a 6th man, but isn’t a 6th man in the future more valuable if he has starting experience? The opportunity is there for him to start. Even if he doesn’t succeed as a starter, although it did last season, he will gain the necessary experience to become a player off the bench who plays like a starter while the first five are resting. The mishandling of Shabazz has been frustrating in that sense. But the same can be said about how most of the young players have been handled.

The Wolves need to also develop an identity. A brand of basketball. What will opponents think of the Wolves when they play them? It shouldn’t be automatic win or young players. The Wolves need to be good at something and be better than their opponents at it. Whether it be in the fast break or on the defensive end. It seems like the talent is there to be good at those things, but yet the Wolves still haven’t been able to be consistently good at them. There is plenty of time in the season to develop this, but it needs to be intentionally done.

The Wolves lost a big lead last night against the Pelicans and it just screamed to me that ‘it takes more than talent.’ The Wolves let Anthony Davis do what he wanted whenever he wanted. They didn’t play defense. And when the lead was gone, there was no question that the Wolves wouldn’t come back to reclaim it.

These are just my thoughts after a month of observing and not writing. The summer will likely bring in another young talented player, but it may mean nothing if that player is brought into talent. The Wolves need more guys with character. They need an identity. They need chemistry. Teams that try to win fast by acquiring talent really fast never win immediately. It takes more than talent.

Pekovic is Coming Back: Where Does He Fit?

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Nikola Pekovic has been officially cleared for full contact practice, meaning he should be returning soon. The bruising big man wears his ‘injury-prone’ tag proudly next to his ‘overpaid’ label. But fans still love Pek. He scares opponents with his size and his tattoos. While he doesn’t play defense, when healthy he is one of the more offensively-gifted centers in the game today. He has a nice post game and before he had his ankle issues, he developed something that looked like a jump shot.

Pekovic got injured a little bit after signing a 5-year, $60 million contract extension mainly because the Wolves wanted to secure the big man to play alongside Kevin Love. Flash forward and now Kevin Love is gone, Kevin Garnett is back, and the Wolves drafted one of the most talented players at the same position in Karl-Anthony Towns. Gorgui Dieng still remains as well, who was originally drafted to back up Pekovic to balance out defensively.

Pek finds himself potentially as the 3rd-string center on the team. He has too big of a contract and is injured too often to be traded at this point. So where does Pek fit in to the Wolves rotation? To preface what we think, we must note that Sam Mitchell will probably do exactly the opposite. Sam Mitchell’s rotations have been head-scratching at best and no one knows how he feels about Pekovic and how he will manage his injury/ playing time.

While things in Minnesota look bleak for Pekovic, he may actually be in an ideal situation. He was being overplayed before which caused him to keep getting injured. The Wolves no longer lack depth in their front court so seeing Pekovic play 10-15 minutes a night may be in the best interest of both parties. Pekovic matching up against opposing benches would also be in the Wolves’ favor as he may as well eat them alive while not having to worry much defensively.

Pekovic returning would mean the Wolves could see Gorgui Dieng get more minutes at the power forward position alongside KAT. Especially on Garnett rest days, Dieng and Towns could start alongside each other and Pekovic could take minutes at the 5 while rotating between the three big men. This would reduce minutes, hopefully, for Adrien Payne and the now struggling Bjelica. Even if Payne or Bjelica get time, both fit well with Pekovic offensively as they both like to spend time behind the 3-point line, opening up the paint for Pekovic. Pekovic will also work well on pick and rolls with LaVine and the emerging Tyus Jones.

In summary we should see rotations as such:

With Garnett (Minutes in parentheses)

C – Towns (28)/ Dieng (10)/ Pekovic (10)

PF – Garnett (15) / Dieng (14) / Bjelica (5) / Payne (4)

Without Garnett

C – Towns (33)/ Pekovic (12)/ Dieng (3)

PF – Dieng (30)/ Bjelica (9)/ Payne (9)

The entire Bjelica and Payne situation seems to be still in flux. Depending on the matchups and who is playing well, one or the other or both could play. But Dieng should spend more time at the 4 with Garnett out and Pekovic still can play around 10-12 minutes a game.

But where does Pekovic fit into the Wolves long-term? The Wolves obviously have Karl-Anthony Towns and Gorgui Dieng as their centerpieces in the front court. Trading Pekovic could be an option. There has been talks that the Bulls would be interested in trading Noah for Pekovic since Noah will be a free agent this summer. There is also the possibility that Pekovic retires early and his contract clears off of the Wolves’ books, but it seems unlikely. 

The Wolves will we’d to utilize him until either his contract expires or until he has some sort of trade bake.  He eventually (17-18 season) will be an expiring contract, in which he will have value in that sense. Trading an expiring contract of that size ($11.6 million) could add a nice piece to the roster, especially since it’ll be a time in which the Wolves should be competitive. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. 

Let us know your thoughts on this. A healthy Pekovic regardless will be good for the Wolves. We hope he can remain healthy, even if he is never the same player again. 

Kevin Garnett’s Farewell Mini-Tour

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The 2015-2016 season has been overshadowed by the ‘Kobe Bryant Farewell Tour’ after announcing his retirement. While Kobe is all-deserving, there are many other players that don’t require the attention for their egos. The end is looming for future Hall-of-Famers like Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, and Kevin Garnett, as they represent the end of the Golden Age of the power forward position. Each player has revolutionized the position in their own ways and leaving their own legacies. Kevin Garnett’s road to the end is unique compared to the roads taken by Kobe, Duncan, and Dirk. Garnett is the only one of the four to play for more than one franchise.

While NBA team’s marketing departments capitalize on Kobe Bryant’s arrivals in their respective cities, Garnett’s unofficial tour is seemingly shorter and more intimate. Even though Garnett has  another year on his contract after this season and hasn’t made any indications of retiring, the number of games he has remaining seem more limited than that. Garnett also isn’t putting up the numbers that would infer that he could play beyond this season. KG isn’t going to advertise that the end is near, but seems like he would prefer his retirement party to be amongst those that are near and dear to him. We are calling it the Mini-tour not only because Mini-tour has ‘Minny’ in it (cue the drums), but because Garnett is visiting, maybe for the last time, the cities he spent time in that led him back home.

Garnett is going out of the league the way that he has led his entire career, selfless. KG is spending his final games investing in the future of the games’ of the young Timberwolves core. It’s clear the Wolves are not chasing a championship and Garnett seems fine with that. He isn’t spending the end of his career chasing rings like many other veterans. He is teaching, selflessly. He still plays with the same passion and grit that he always has played with. He still talks smack better than anyone. But what Garnett’s farewell tour represents is more romantic than cinematic.

The Masterminds in the NBA Front Office snuck in back-to-back games against Garnett’s former teams as the Wolves take a quick road trip out East. It didn’t make sense that the Wolves would play in New York one day, come back home, just to fly back to Brooklyn for their next game. There is deep wisdom in it all. The Wolves take on the Brooklyn Nets in an early matchup Sunday at 12pm CT. Then the Wolves take on the Celtics on Monday at 6:30pm. We all know KG rests on the backend of back-to-backs, but the way this is configured, we may see an exception.

First, most back-t0-back games occur with a start time about 24 hours within each other. This one has an added six hours for what it’s worth. The next thing to point out is the Wolves play the Nets first and then the Celtics. KG’s legacy with the Nets isn’t necessarily as historic as his with the Celtics, being that KG won his championship with the Celtics. So it would be odd if Garnett missed the backend game against the Celtics since he accomplished arguably more as a Celtic than as a Wolf, depending on how you measure accomplishments.

Regardless how you measure accomplishments, Garnett has definitely accomplished a lot. Garnett has become the all-time leader in defensive rebounds, a recent accomplishment. To KG’s versatility, he is the only player to ever have 25,000 points, 10,000 rebounds, 5,000 assists, 1,500 blocks and 1,500 steals in their career. He is tied with the making the most NBA First Team All-Defense, being on that team 9 times. Looking at how consistent Garnett has been through his career, he is also the all-time leader in seasons played with 20.

Garnett playing 20 seasons is quite incredible. For many ’80’s babies’, especially Timberwolves fans, Garnett was one of the most influential players to play the game in their generations. Garnett continues to make an deep impact today, regardless of his age and regardless of the stage in his career. While a return to Brooklyn doesn’t seem to be too crazy for Garnett being that he spent a year and a half there, his impact anywhere is something that demands respect. The Wolves still present Garnett last in player introductions, usually reserved for the team’s best player. And while KG doesn’t have the knees to goal-tend shots that come after a whistle from opposing teams, his pre-game rituals have lasted the test of time and are nostalgic.

So will Garnett play both games in the back-to-back? Although we are proclaiming this to be the ‘Kevin Garnett Farewell Mini-Tour’, we have to believe Garnett is thinking about this stretch of games just as much. Well maybe not. But the game to consider the most is definitely the Celtics game. Boston fans love Garnett almost as much as Wolves fans do. There sure will be a lot of encouragement for him to play under the circumstances that Wolves only visit Eastern Conference teams once.

While we want to use Garnett’s quote “Anything is Possible!’ to say he could play the two games on Sunday and Monday, he has missed meaningful games before. Many Wolves fans remember Garnett missing his first game against Minnesota with the Celtics due to an abdominal strain. The game was a sellout and the Timberwolves Organization was forced to send tickets to the fans in attendance to compensate for the disappointment. Garnett isn’t married to the idea that he needs to play in what could be his last time in Brooklyn or Boston. He does what he wants and probably could retire knowing he missed this game for his health.

We will definitely be watching closely. Both cities will likely host tributes for Garnett when they play the Wolves. If he doesn’t play in Boston, it is at least a reminder to appreciate the last few games Garnett will play, in light of all the craziness surrounding this season. It’s a good idea to step back and think what the game may look like without Garnett suiting up again and hitting his head against the basket pads. The game will likely never be the same, so enjoy.

News & Notes

  • While the Wolves have gone 2-8 over the last 10 games, one thing we haven’t discussed in a while is Ricky Rubio’s health. Rubio has played 20 games this season while only playing 22 last year. That is a positive. So Wolves fans, as Ricky says: Change your face, be happy. Enjoy!
  • Andrew Wiggins had 32 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists in the win over the Kings. Wiggins is the youngest player in Timberwolves history to have 30 points, 10 boards, and 5 assists. Yes he did it younger than Kevin Garnett, Kevin Love, and even Ndudi Ebi.
  • Wolves fans voted that the Kings would beat the Wolves in our Twitter poll ( @Timberrebuilder), a first where the homer-Wolves fans didn’t believe we would win.
  • Couple of tweets we liked from other people that are worth sharing:

Big fan of Brad Stevens, head coach of the Celtics. Will take that compliment.

Karl-Anthony Towns is amazing. #NBAvote

The Timber (re)Builder

 

Why The Wolves Have Struggled

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The Wolves have dropped eight of the last nine games after being at .500 at 8-8. The Wolves now find themselves at 9-16 a few games over the quarter mark of the season. The last eight losses have come to the Clippers and Nuggets twice each, Magic, Blazers, Suns, and Knicks. The lone win was against the Lakers in overtime. All the losses were winnable games where the biggest margin of loss was 12, the rest all within 10 points. Some games were games the Wolves held strong leads and lost them. Other games the Wolves found ways to fight back into them and get semi-close towards the end.

A couple things we want to do is examine what has changed after starting 8-8. We wanted to answer, what isn’t working? What are the problems? What can we point out? There is a heavy emphasis on plus/ minus in these game stats. We do this because we want to see the difference a player is making on the court vs their opponents. Lineups are important to this, but plus/ minus seems to be a good way to analyze what that player has done while on the floor.

  • Starters not competing: The Wolves starting lineup is not competing with other teams. The Net +/- in every loss has been massively negative. The starts have a Net average +/- of -24.875 in the eight losses, while the bench has an average of -2.625. The bench is surprisingly keeping the Wolves in the game, mostly thanks to the strong play of LaVine and Dieng. In the one win, the Wolves starters demolished the Lakers starters. I would like to believe this would be a simple change of moving LaVine into the starting lineup.
  • Wiggins’ Net +/- : it’s -59 in the eight losses the Wolves have suffered recently, which is the worst on the team. He has also had a negative +/- in each of the last 9 games. Wiggins needs to work on getting his teammates involved so that the overall team does better when he is on the floor. To Wiggins’ defense he has one of the highest usages on the team (LaVine has surpassed him) and logs the most minutes so it’s hard to keep these numbers respectable when he is in the game when the Wolves lose most of their leads. Outside of that, Wiggins is going to have to start finishing around the basket at the same rate as he was before all of the losses.
  • Bjelica is struggling: Bjelica was a big reason why the Wolves’ bench was one of the best in the league. He was consistently coming in to the game and nailing threes. In the eight losses, Bjelica has averaged less than 4 points. His shot has struggled in this stretch of games: Screen Shot 2015-12-17 at 12.56.01 PMAs you can see above, Bjelica is only scoring from the outside or near the basket. The shots outside the arc have not been falling for him. Ever since he went out with a knee injury, he hasn’t quite been the same.  With Bjelica not able to knock down as many threes, and quite honestly passing up on a lot of open ones, the spacing on the floor is bad. When the spacing is bad, more shots are contested. When more shots are contested, your field goal percentage dips. When your field goal percentage dips, you typically lose games. So if you are catching the drift here, a struggling Bjelica is not helping the cause.
  • Defense: The Wolves defense has assisted in the resurrection of careers for Randy Foye and Aaron Afflalo. The team is not defending by any stretch of the imagination. Teams are getting wide open looks from three. Ball movement collapses the Wolves on D almost exactly as it should. This is where Prince did help in the starting lineup almost where Martin has made the Wolves less reputable in that category. If the Wolves want to win, they have to defend. In the eight losses, the Wolves have allowed a higher FG% than they have shot in all but one game.
  • Kevin Martin: The replacement of Martin into the starting lineup has been the most obvious thing that has changed. The Wolves won 3 straight after they put Martin in the starting lineup, but it could not be credited to Martin. The Wolves faced the winless Sixers, Cousin-less Kings, and a Hawks team that should’ve been a loss. Martin has scored well, but has done it in a very inconsistent fashion. On three occasions, he has scored 2 points or less. He has struggled defensively, which shouldn’t come as a surprise. It probably doesn’t help either that trade rumors are swirling around him. Main point is, he probably should be in the starting lineup let alone on the roster at this point.
  • Prince less, Bazz more: In the eight losses, Shabazz Muhammad has had a net +/- of 1, where Prince has a -34. Yet, Bazz is only averaging less than two minutes more a game than Prince. Prince is not the player he once was at all. In this stretch of games he has averaged 1 point and a little over a rebound a game. His now average, if not below average, defense is not worth his poor effort on offense. The Wolves should see Shabazz in games more than Prince period. This is the influence behind all of our #FreeShabazz tweets.

The Wolves are approaching an inflection point, similar to previous years. We enter the year thinking we can compete and then we realize, ‘dang, we aren’t that good.’ Mitchell has mentioned that playing the veterans more would help the team win an 8th seed, and I have to respectfully disagree. The veterans on this team should continue to be used more so as mentors than rotation players.

There is time to turn the season around if the Wolves can put the right players together. Sam Mitchell’s recent comments about playing veterans 28 minutes and that development doesn’t happen during the season are not encouraging. First step will be a starting lineup that competes and defends. I don’t think the Wolves have the personnel to do that though and would require some trades. The Wolves need to pursue a 3 and D guy to help on the perimeter and take Kevin Martin’s minutes. But the Wolves entered this slew of games with an amazing opportunity, a sequence of winnable games. They were able to measure themselves against teams with more or less similar records. Unfortunately, they’ve lost nearly all of them.

The Wolves are still figuring things out. They are still trying to understand how to incorporate Karl Towns into the offense. Ricky Rubio’s jump shot remains inconsistent. Sam Mitchell seems to always be defensive when approached by the media about his rotations. These things are season long issues and not necessarily the cause of the losses at this point. But above is what has changed over the last 9 games. The Wolves are no longer a great defensive team. Their starters seem to not be clicking. And members of their bench are not as reliable as they once were.

KG Dunks on Blake Griffin – The Analysis

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Garnett had 5 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, and a dunk of the year.

The Wolves lost its fourth straight game against the Clippers last night. But for whatever reason, everyone in Minnesota is happy. Sam Mitchell treated the press nicely. Those of us eliminated from our fantasy football playoffs are quite jolly today. Because KG dunked on one of the most annoying basketball players in the league, Blake Griffin. In case you spent the night under a rock, here it is:

 

If you have also watched this video over 50 times, a few things happened. You and the crowd and every other Wolves fan went nuts. KG proceeded to talk the very necessary smack after the dunk, if only the video had subtitles. As the crowd went wild, Chris Paul called a time out to prevent the momentum getting too out of hand and to allow for the dunk to sink in for fans.

This dunk was Garnett’s first dunk of the season and like the announcers screamed, it is probably the best of the season. The last time KG dunked in a Wolves uniform was April 9th, 2007. In case you wanted to just see the dunk in a sequence, there was this flowing through the internet:

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In the first picture on the left, there seems to be a lot going through Garnett’s head. KG is in mid air and realizing that he could score his average in points if he could just make the basket. He is probably upset at Rubio for passing the ball to him in transition. He was initially running for a rebound put back or something. In the middle image, KG then says forget it, I will try to just get to the line. He then realizes, Blake Griffin hasn’t moved. KG is then realizing what a punk Griffin is. This is when KG is then developing the necessary rhetoric he will share with Griffin when he comes back down to planet earth. The third image is where Garnett physically turns back the clock and we all see this:

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A young KG emerged from the dust and reappeared for a brief moment. It was beautiful. The 39-year old Garnett had posterized a former dunk champion, Hollywood star, and very athletic Blake Griffin. When people say ‘the game of basketball is like art in motion’, this is what they mean.

The final part of the analysis is based on the reactions. And the best reaction. 20-year old Karl-Anthony Towns reacted like he was a fan. Like his mentor just proved to him that he still had it. Like Mom said the pizza rolls were ready. Here it is:

The meme potential for this is enormous. Whenever I am excited about anything, I will imagine this reaction. It is just a beautiful image to see KG talking smack and KAT screaming and cheering with a bandaid on his face as if he just dunked on Griffin himself. It felt like a passing of the torch.

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You then are left with this reaction. Fans cheering still. KG cursing the entire Clippers team. Towns reacting like a child who uttered their first swear word and knew what it meant. Wiggins looking like he woke up and saw the Clippers bench crying from embarrassment. And Rubio flexing and talking crap in spanish.

This was beautiful. Even though the game didn’t conclude in victory, this was all worth it. 39-year old Kevin Garnett dunked on 26- year old Blake Griffin. It is what all old guys dream about in pick up basketball. Garnett lived out the dream for all of us.

Thanks for turning back the clock for us KG. It was glorious.

Decoding Sam Mitchell

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The Timberwolves are already half-way to their win total from last season and it is only the beginning of December. So if comparing this season to seasons past, its been a significant improvement. There are things you can attribute to coaching, roster moves, team chemistry, and to player development. But just because things have improved does not mean that couldn’t be better. The Wolves have won some games they shouldn’t have (sweeping the Hawks and winning in Miami) and lost games they probably could’ve won (twice against the Magic).

Part of the tug-of-war between the front office and the coaching staff is always one of player development vs the outcome this season. The beauty of having a GM-Coach like the role Flip Saunders had is that there is absolutely a balance. Although the Wolves were terrible last season, its clear that Wiggins and LaVine developed a lot over the course of the season into this one and the Wolves were able to identify that the ROI (Return on Investment) on Anthony Bennett wasn’t worth it. Wiggins & LaVine look like they are among the best rookies from last season because of this balance and the Wolves are now better positioned to be a contender in the future. Now with Mitchell in his position, he is fighting to prove he is worthy of being a coach passed this season.

Mitchell biggest criticism thus far which is probably evenly split between Wolves fans is Karl-Anthony Towns’ minutes. He has seen a dramatic decrease in minutes and has struggled in the limited minutes after having a historic start to the season for the rookie. Gorgui Dieng has seem more minutes and to his credit, has produced nicely. But many believe that Towns does give the Wolves a better chance to win and should see any minutes in the fourth quarter. Over the last five games, Towns has averaged 22 minutes a game and on many occasions hasn’t played in the 4th quarter.

Mitchell has come out and finally spoke on the minutes issues for Towns and says he doesn’t want to burn him out and says its part of the learning process. Trusting the process can be rough though, just as the Sixers. This was the first time Mitchell actually spoke about it, as there were many questions as to why Towns was not playing and the Wolves continued to lose in close games. Towns did take the high road and said his minutes in College prepared him for this. Sam Mitchell is trying to win games, which is understood. But you have to believe, Karl-Anthony Towns playing in the fourth quarter a little more would probably help that cause along.

The next criticism against Mitchell has been his handling of another young prospect, Zach LaVine. Mitchell started training camp naming LaVine the starting shooting guard and then moved him to the bench as the back up point guard. After a slow start, it was clear LaVine was most effective as a shooting guard and not effective at the point. Once it was realized the Wolves couldn’t afford Tayshaun Prince in the starting lineup, the struggling Kevin Martin was moved in to replace Prince. LaVine currently has a PER of 18.2, which is an improvement from last season 11.3 PER. LaVine also has the 4th highest Win Share on the team at 1.1, where Martin has a .5 WS and Prince with .2. LaVine’s Box Plus/Minus has improved leaps and bounds from last season, where he has a BPM this season of 2.2, where it was a terrible -4.5 last year. Kevin Martin has a BPM of -4.3 right now. Long story short, not only has LaVine improved, but he is playing much better than Martin or Prince this season.

The concern in all of this worries fans that followed Mitchell in Toronto. In case you didn’t know, Sam Mitchell was awarded Coach of the Year 2006-2007 but was the coach who allowed Kobe to score 81 points and also failed to develop a lot of key pieces while there, namely former number 1 pick Andrea Bargnani. Bargnani was restricted on minutes early on and never built the kind of relationship you would want out of your top draft pick and your head coach. He also failed to develop many draft picks who seemed to have the potential to succeed in this league. Many players left Toronto disgruntled, which led to a poor season and his termination soon after.

Lastly, the rotations Sam Mitchell is using are questionable at best. Staggering and balancing bench players with starters is a way to keep the level of talent on the floor at least even while you rest your best players. Mitchell has played his bench through long and important minutes through the 4th quarter which usually puts the team in a deeper deficit than it needs to be. It seems like substitutions are more reactionary than tactically decided. It also seems that even if a guy is playing well, they still seem to not get the minutes, like Shabazz Mohammad. It is just difficult to see the logic Mitchell is using to decide who is on the floor.

It is important to point out that there are things Sam Mitchell is doing right too. Mitchell is a players’ coach. He seems to be able to relate to players and understand them. Mitchell also seemingly has a good relationship with KG, in which he probably serves as the most important person to Garnett in the organization at this point. But on the court, the Wolves have clearly improved as a team. They have moved away from the bottom of the barrel in the league defensively, to at one point one of the best teams in that category this season. There have been woes offensively where the team has shot below 40% a couple of times and are not leveraging their young by struggling in fast break points.

The Wolves are also playing with a grit that they lacked in previous seasons. They don’t give up after they go down by 10. They stay close at the end of games. And it doesn’t feel like we are going to lose every game within 5 like a few seasons ago with Rick Adelman. Its hard to tell if this is because Garnett is inspiring the young guys or if Mitchell is motivating these guys to play hard, it does deserve praise. For this alone, its clear Mitchell is not warranting any sort of dramatic firing. But again, this team’s number one priority is development and what the franchise is banking on. So the criticism is warranted.

The truth of the matter is this Sam Mitchell will likely coach out this year. The Wolves are not in a position to win a championship at the given moment and the team is performing at about their expectations. I also believe Glen Taylor is going to try and figure out how to move forward on what happens with the GM & Coaching void Flip left behind. What will be said, the hope is Sam Mitchell is not the Wolves coach the 2016-17 season. The development of the key pieces on this roster is far more important than Sam Mitchell’s wizardry on the bench. I don’t believe the Wolves as an organization can afford Mitchell as head coach another season, especially with the talent pool of available head coaches.

A Surprisingly Pivotal Point in the Season

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The Wolves enter a game against the winless Philadelphia 76ers at 5-8 on the season, after a fast start. The Wolves find themselves in a position where a few games will likely define what their season will look like. They could dig a big enough hole in which it will be to difficult to climb out of later in the season or they can hang around .500 enough to make a push later in the season. The Wolves currently sit 22nd in offensive efficiency and 15th in defensive efficiency. It has been clear through the first 13 games the Wolves win games when the defense is stellar and struggle when they can’t hold their opponents to under 100 points. It has been also evident that the 2nd half is not where the Wolves prevail, giving up leads in games to the Hawks, Magic, and Pistons.

Entering the game tonight against the Sixers, something’s gotta give. Either the Sixers win their first game of the season or the Wolves win their first game at home. If you recall, the Sixers won their first game of the season last year against the Wolves after losing 19 straight, which was really the beginning of the end for the Wolves, who would essentially give up on the season and end with the worst record. The Wolves are 1-6 in the last 7 games and definitely need to turn things around if they intend on being competitive this season or it becomes another year of development.

For the Wolves, a game against the Sixers is exciting for the fact that Karl-Anthony Towns goes up against Jahlil Okafor, two Rookie of the Year candidates. Two franchises have taken different approaches to rebuilding as well, which will be interesting to see over the next few years how they pan out. The Sixers have taken the approach of just accumulating as many assests as possible, whether it is young players or draft picks, and hope they pan out, all while minimizing salary on the team. The Wolves have taken the mentorship approach of surrounding young guys with veterans in which they are also trying to compete with a developing roster.

Sam Mitchell continues to figure out how the team works and made an adjustment where Kevin Martin enters the starting lineup in replace of Tayshaun Prince. This moves Andrew Wiggins to the small forward position. This also sends the message that the Wolves are looking to improve their offense while taking a hit to their defense. I am a firm believer that Kevin Martin and Andrew Wiggins are a duo that does not bode well for Wiggins and his production as Martin takes a lot of his shots or for the team in general. Other than Gorgui Dieng, Wiggins’ net points per 100 possessions is worst when paired with Martin on the floor. It would make most sense to start LaVine at shooting guard or maybe even Shabazz Muhammad at small forward, but Sam Mitchell seems to not prefer those options still. Mitchell believes LaVine still needs to play point guard and talks of Shabazz as a starter haven’t really surfaced. Wiggins and Muhammad have only seen 53 minutes on the court together this season.

Regardless, the change indicates that change needed to happen. It will be interesting to see how many minutes Prince still gets, as he has shown that he isn’t as great of a defender as he was expected to be. The Wolves will face the Hawks, Kings, Clippers, Magic, and Blazers in the next 5 games which will be an opportunity to measure themselves against some more middle-of-the-pack teams, talent-wise. Rubio has mentioned that this is not how a winning team plays, so it will be interesting to see how the Wolves approach these next few games. The Wolves definitely need to experiment a little more with the rotations and sets on the court.

Let’s see tonight though. Our hopes are Towns gets more involved in the offense by getting more shots, there are crisp picks set, and passes aren’t happening cross court. Wolves are coming off of a practice, which Mitchell mentioned being an issue as not having enough. Hopefully the Wolves can come in and win a game they should win.

The Timber (re)Builder