We continue our series as we now are on the 2nd pick and while this seems like an obvious choice, I think readers will be presently surprised by who will be suggested as the 2nd pick.

There is a fair assumption around the league that one of the big men will be picked with the 1st pick the draft and common practice is to simply draft whoever is left. If Towns goes number one, draft Okafor. If Okafor goes number one, draft Towns. While this happens a lot if many drafts where there are clear cut 1st and 2nd picks, I would shy away from just falling into that trap. That trap usually sets the team in the 2nd pick slot up for failure. Thus, I believe the Wolves should really think outside the box if they end up with the 2nd pick.

For your reference, since Durant was taken 2nd in 2007, the 2nd pick from 2008-2014 drafts have been Michael Beasley, Hasheem Thabeet, Evan Turner, Derrick Williams, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Victor Oladipo, and Jabari Parker, respectively. Outside of the last two which still are living off of their potential and rightfully so, the others are either fighting to be a starter or just to be in the NBA still. None of these guys have been All-Stars. Oladipo should have gone first in the draft by popular opinion. If that was true, Anthony Bennett would probably be in this group, where he belongs. Another popular number 2 pick is Darko Milicic who was taken before MANY Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh to name a few.

In the scenario Jahlil Okafor goes first, the second pick would be Karl Towns. At number two I believe Karl Towns is worth taking the risk on. He has the size and strength of DeMarcus Cousins. He has good touch for a big man. He also is incredible on the boards and on the defensive end. The scary thing about him is that he played on a stacked team and was a part of Coach Cal’s platoon system, that could have covered up his weaknesses due to his lack of playing time. I don’t think Karl Towns has Super Star potential, but can be an All-Star for a few years in the league if he continues to develop. Defense and Rebounding translate wonderfully to the NBA. While it may take time for Towns to be great on Defense, you can bet he will make a mark on the boards and blocks. The Wolves don’t need Towns to become a Superstar, just a defensive anchor.

In the scenario where Karl Towns goes number one, I would hesitate with Jahlil Okafor. There is a huge connection with Okafor as his agent is Bill Duffy, former Golden Gopher teammate of Flip Saunders. And we know quite well how Flip likes to keep things ‘in the family’ or a lot of his ‘Country Club’ moves. There is also a lot of talk that if the Wolves do get the number 1 pick, they would take Okafor. So they really like something about him. But my biggest concern is his inability to play defense. In the Western Conference, you play the likes of Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard, DeMarcus Cousins, LaMarcus Aldridge, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, and Tim Duncan four times each. Not to mention all of the penetrating point guards. This means interior defense and rim protection are necessities, not luxuries, if you want to become anything in the Western Conference. The front court of any of the remaining playoff teams in the West are great, not just good, defensively. Draymond Green paired with Andrew Bogut, DeAndre Jordan, and Dwight Howard. Thus, at 1 or 2, I would want to stay away from Jahlil Okafor. If Karl Towns is not available, I look elsewhere.

To me, there is one player that has the tools to be great in the NBA and I believe that id D’Angelo Russell. I spoke about him a bit in the previous post but at Number 2, D’Angelo Russell would be my pick as well. Only in the scenario where Towns goes 1 and Russell goes 2 would I take Okafor at 3. I do believe though Russell’s playmaking ability and his ability to rebound as a guard will make him a mismatch in years to come. He is essentially Ricky Rubio with a jump shot, and the passes are less flashy. Russell paired with Wiggins could be scary for a very long time in the league. While I would really prefer to draft a big man, I think the best player available should be taken here and it is definitely, D’Angelo Russell.

To everyone who thought this would be easy and you just take Okafor. All I can say is GOT EEEMMM!

If the Wolves end up with a top 3 pick, we will be in good shape. The Wolves have a 64.9% chance of landing one of the top 3 picks. There is a good chance the Karl Towns goes number 1 in the draft no matter what. But the common strategy for the top 3 pick will be as Milt Newton has stated almost redundantly, take the best player available.

The draft is still over a month away but the top 3 looks extremely interesting right now. Karl Towns, Jahlil Okafor, and D’Angelo Russell seem to have it locked down. As big guys are usually a hot commodity (also high bust risk). D’Angelo Russell seems to be overlooked. Much of the conversation remains around Karl Towns and his potential on both ends of the court and Okafor’s incredible offensive ability. So I will make the assumption that Karl Towns and Okafor are taken in the top 2 picks, but if the Sixers and/ or Knicks end up in the top 2, Russell could be taken.

Okafor’s stock is dropping and will really need to impress folks in the coming weeks in order to solidify his spot as a top 2 pick. Winning a championship helps him quite a bit. His post game is that of a veteran in their prime. He has incredible strength in the post. And his passing ability is really overlooked. As a kid who has been getting double teamed since the age of 12, he would be a wonderful compliment to an Andrew Wiggins. Okafor does has some significant red flags. He is doesn’t have wonderful rebounding mechanics. In the NBA, you need your anchor to rebound. He also is terrible on the defensive end and had a lot of it covered up by Coach K running a zone defense. A rule of thumb for scouts is usually the stat that doesn’t translate well into the NBA is scoring and that is really the only thing Okafor is great at.

That all being said and sticking to the best player available strategy, the argument could be made that D’Angelo Russell may be exactly that. Russell is a 6-5 combo guard with a 6-10 wingspan, which is wonderful size. And while a second ago I mentioned that scoring wasn’t important, Russell led all Freshmen in scoring with 19.3 PPG and did it very efficiently on a 58% True Shooting Percentage. To me Russell has the lowest risk of any of the top 10 players because of his amazing passing ability and court vision. He may be the best passer in the draft since, probably Ricky Rubio. Russell can also shoot off the dribble or catch and shoot or come off screens. This ability combined with his amazing shooting makes me feel like he can be a Bradley Beal type player at the Point Guard position. His advance statistics (Win Shares, Assist%, Steal%, Rebound%) compare most with Kyrie Irving. His only issue is that he isn’t quite explosive enough for a point guard so could be contained.

Going best player available, Wolves have no choice but to take… D’Angelo Russell.

From the Timberwolves perspective, taking Russell presents a few obvious issues. Russell’s primary position is Point Guard. Don’t we have Ricky Rubio? Why yes! Don’t we have Zach LaVine? Yes! So what happens with Russell and where does he fit? Great question.

First things first, LaVine playing at Point Guard ends here. If there weren’t so many injuries, I am assuming that experiment would’ve ended in November. In hindsight though, it provided Zach with some great experience and I still believe he is going to be a great player in this league. Now for Ricky. I love Ricky. But one thing you learn to do in Business School is Hedge your investments. Ricky might officially be tagged as ‘injury prone’ now. Russell would be the Hedge. If Ricky gets hurt, Russell would fill in. Also, Russell would have the ability to play the 2 as well. Ricky and Russell in the backcourt would be probably the best playmaking backcourt ever.

At some point, someone would have to go or assume a lesser role. Unfortunately that person would likely be Zach LaVine and/ or Shabazz Muhammed. Unless Ricky proves he can’t stay healthy. Someone would need to be moved in a year to bring in another asset. Or maybe someone doesn’t pan out. The important point is, there is no such thing as a log jam unless you have sure things on your roster and at 16 wins, nothing is a sure thing.

There was a lot of concern when the Wolves drafted Derrick Williams when your best player played the same position, at power forward. When Derrick was brought it there was hopes he could play the 3. Unfortunately the biggest issue with Derrick is he could not guard any position on the court which made him a liability. Russell at 6-5 is oversized for a PG and about the right size for a SG. Williams was the right size for a SF and undersized as a PF. So there is no need to worry here about Russell and playing the same position as Rubio.

Pick number 2 coming up in the coming days. The draft lottery is 5 days away!

– The Timber (re)Builder