ZACH LAVINE

Just How Lucky are the Wolves?

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By the end of this, there will be a numerical probability of just how lucky the Wolves were to have this roster.

As we approach the NBA Draft Lottery, Wolves fans are enjoying the recent news of Karl-Anthony Towns winning the Rookie of the Year award Unanimously. There has been a lot of chatter about how lucky the Wolves have been over the last couple years to acquire two great young talents in Andrew Wiggins and Karl Towns. This chatter is warranted. The Wolves have had some historic things happen over the last two seasons, things that would attract a top-tier head coach like Tom Thibodeau to want to work in Minnesota. But just how lucky have the Wolves been?

The young core of the Wolves has accomplished some incredible things in the last two years. The Wolves flirted with being the first team in history to have three consecutive Number 1 picks on the same roster, until the Wolves released Anthony Bennett. Andrew Wiggins and Karl Towns are the first duo to win back-to-back Rookie of the Year awards on the same team since the Buffalo Braves in 1974. LaVine, Wiggins and Towns also set a record against the Cavs being the first trio of scorers under 21-years old to all score 20 points or more in a single game. The things the Wolves are accomplishing over time make you believe that it’s either fate or some serious luck.

The Wolves haven’t always been lucky. And when you’re constantly unlucky, the luck has to eventually turn into your favor. The Wolves have the longest active streak of not making the playoffs, which is up to 12 seasons. That is a lot of opportunities to get lucky and a lot of times ending up not lucky. The Wolves had never won the lottery in its 26-year history prior to last summer, which having the best odds twice. In those years the Wolves ended up with Christian Laettner and Derrick Williams instead of Shaquille O’Neal or Kyrie Irving. There is also the time in the 2009 draft where the Wolves drafted back-to-back point guards at the 5 and 6 spots just to have Stephen Curry be drafted 7th.

All that rebuilding talk aside, the 2016 Minnesota Timberwolves are in a lucky position. But just how lucky? Lets see…

Probabilities to factor in:

lebron

– First, it all begins with Lebron James. Lebron going to the Cavaliers in the summer of 2014 is what caused a domino effect of moves for the Wolves. If Lebron stayed in Miami, the Kevin Love trade may have never happened. If Love was not traded to the Cavs, chances are he would’ve been traded to the Warriors for a horrible deal around David Lee or left for nothing in free agency. According to fivethirtyeight.com the probability Lebron James kept his talents in Miami were 49.7%. After that, the Cavs had the best chances of bringing back the hometown hero with 15.8% chances. So the entire Wolves core doesn’t happen theoretically unless that 15.8% chance happens.

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– The next thing that has to occur is that the Cavaliers have to win the draft lottery in order to have something to offer the Wolves for Kevin Love. The element of conspiracy theory occurs with the NBA draft here because the Cavs had a 1.7% chance to win the number 1 pick in the 2014 draft. Those chances are tiny! But it happened. And they took Andrew Wiggins with that trade.

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– Next thing to factor in is Wiggins winning the Rookie of the Year award. The Wolves were lucky to get a talent like Andrew Wiggins to rebuild around. The truth is, he could’ve been a bust like Anthony Bennett the year before, so measuring just how significant of a talent Wiggins could be, the odds of him winning Rookie of the Year should be factored into the Wolves luck. Wiggins had odds of +600 to win the 2015 Rookie of the Year in July behind Jabari Parker, which converts to a probability of about 14.29% according to Sportsinsights.com

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– The Wolves need their own luck with the Wolves winning the lottery. The Wolves were coming off of a serious rebuild in 2014-15 and came away with the worst record in the NBA. This gave the Wolves the best odds of winning the draft lottery in 2015 with a 25% chance. Compared to all of the other things that were factored into this probability, this was the most likely thing to happen. Like I stated earlier, the Wolves had never won the lottery up until this point. So to finally win it was huge.

APTOPIX Rookie Of The Year Basketball

– Towns winning the Rookie of the Year award. Unanimously too. Towns had a monumental season posting 18ppg, 10rpg and 54.2FG%. He was a joy to watch on both ends of the court. The Wolves got a franchise changing talent, which is highly unlikely. But in order to measure the Wolves luck, we simply looked at his odds of winning it in the preseason. He was not the favorite out of the gate. Towns ROY odds in August were +650, which is about 12.82% also according to sportsinsights.com. KAT was behind Jahlil Okafor at the beginning of the season as the favorite to win it.

Probabilities that were not factored in:

– The trade for Andrew Wiggins. While it would be nice to calculate what the probability was that the Love-Wiggins trade happened, its hard to put a numerical value on that. The Wolves swapping for talent isn’t really luck either. The Cavs just had to have the necessary talent to get Kevin Love.

– Getting Zach LaVine. Zach has been an integral part of the Wolves young core and getting him at the 13th pick over Adreian Payne was absolutely lucky. Unfortunately, the luck evened out by trading a future first-round pick for Payne.

– Picking other guys. There are the other draft picks the Wolves made like picking Towns over Okafor. Also there is the trading of Trey Burke for Shabazz and Gorgui, which was very lucky. These things were not factored in. The Wolves dodged bullets by making those selections, at this point in time at least. Things also evened out by not taking Giannis or Rudy Gobert with those picks in 2013. Thus, we just called it a draw.

– Landing Tom Thibodeau. The Wolves fortunes took a great turn for the better after the hiring of Thibs, at least on paper. Chances are, getting Thibodeau to coach here a year ago seemed like a long shot. But things fell into place and timing was everything. The Wolves were first-movers in the coaching carousel and landed the big fish. Money also talks in this game, so excluding those odds.

The Calculation:

We now apply probability rules. Being that these happened in sequence, conditional probabilities can be applied. Since these are independent events, the conditional probability, the probability of event A occurring given event B occurs, is equal to the probability of event A. Thus, using the Multiplication rule for N independent events, we can simply multiply all of the probabilities together. This answers the question of ‘What were the chances of all of these events happening together?’ Statisticians might take a different approach to the calculation. So here it is:

P(Lebron to Cleveland) x P(Cavs win Lottery 2014) x P(Wiggins wins ROY) x P(Wolves win Lottery 2015) x P(Towns wins ROY) = Wolves chances of being in current state

Wolves Luck = 0.00123017% Chance of being in its current state

That means, there was a 0.00123017% chance that the Lebron would sign with Cleveland AND they would win the draft lottery in order to draft Wiggins AND that Wiggins would win the Rookie of the Year AND the Wolves would win the draft lottery the following year to draft Karl-Anthony Towns AND that Towns would win the Rookie of the Year the very next season. So basically, what has happened thus far is highly unlikely.

Compare these chances with one person being struck by lightning once in their lifetime. The chance of that happening is a 0.033333%. That means, it is over 27 times more likely that any one person is struck by lightning in their lifetime than how this Wolves team has been composed over the last two seasons.

Boom. Call it luck. Call it fate. Call it the alignment of the stars. Whatever you call it, it is absolutely exciting.

Side Note: if the Wolves win the draft lottery tonight, the odds of 0.00123017% will be multiplied by 8.8%, which is a really small number. Just something to think about.

The Timber Rebuilder

Timber Rebuilder 2016 Draft Big Board v1.0 (Pre-Draft Lottery)

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With the draft lottery around the corner, it seems necessary to simply rank the prospects as the Wolves could land anywhere between pick 1 and 6. I have mentioned that I believe the Wolves should trade the pick, but in the event that they do keep it or even trade down, I will rank the prospects from the Wolves perspective.

For the Wolves, young talent is not an issue. If the Wolves do keep the pick, it will be important that whoever that is drafted fit into the long-term plan. The Wolves have some serious deficiencies currently that prevent them from being competitive. There is no one player that can fix them for the Wolves, but it is important to at least understand what the deficiencies are.

First, the Wolves need three point shooting. It’s been an issue for a while now. There isn’t going to be a rookie that solves this issue by himself but they could at least help. There needs to be guys who can help stretch the floor for KAT and Wiggins through the game. There are a few guys in this draft that can help in this category.

Next, the Wolves are very weak at power forward. Conveniently, this draft is as well. It seems like Payne may be a better option than many of the power forwards immediately next season. But it doesn’t mean that we can search. A long-term starter at power forward could mean a small forward who plays stretch four or someone who can move Towns to the 4. The Wolves will need to get creative.

Lastly, the Wolves need scoring and defense off of the bench. The Wolves bench was great early on in the season when Zach LaVine and Kevin Martin were coming off of it, but fell off tremendously when Shabazz Muhammad was the only real threat that started the game wearing warm-ups.

The criterion used was through four areas. Star potential. Can they develop into a starter or more? Are they a high reward? Bust potential. Are they a high-risk prospect? Then I looked at the trends of the game and what the team needs. Shooting. Can they shoot the three and/ or how is their field goal percentage? I ran a regression model at one point to see which college statistics have the most statistical significance on a player’s NBA-career and field goal % was the most important. Next, I will also focus on defense. Not only is defense important to coach Thibodeau but its a growing trend in the league that for a player to be a net-positive player, they have to be able to defend.

Without further ado, here is the Timber Rebuilder pre-lottery/ mid-combine Draft Big Board. I will adjust the rankings as we get closer to the draft. For now, will set at a top 15.

 

1-Ben Simmons

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Star Potential: Very High

Bust Potential: Low

Shooting: Low

Defense: Medium

With ESPN Insider declaring that if the Wolves get the top pick Ingram should be the choice, it should make one more comfortable with taking Ben Simmons first. Ben Simmons’ skill set is very unique and hard to pass up. Simmons is a match up nightmare. He is physically and athletically already at an NBA-level. He can absolutely get to the rim at will and finish around the basket. What makes him unique is that he can get others involved. Before criticizing his shot, its important to note that you don’t have to be able to shoot in order to be good in the NBA. There is a mantra that the only way to beat the Warriors is to play like them and it is not true. I am sure Simmons’ shot and defense will be worked on greatly over his career. If he can become average at either, he will be a scary talent. I love Ingram, but Simmons is just too good of a talent to pass up. As a freshmen Simmons averaged 19 points, 12 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals a game. That is just absurd. Of all the players in this draft, Simmons absolutely has the highest ceiling.

2-Brandon Ingram

Star Potential: High

Bust Potential: Low

Shooting: High

Defense: Medium

Ingram is going to be great. The kid is a 6-10 small forward that can shoot, dribble, and play some decent defense. He also has a 7-3 wing span. I do believe he isn’t going to be able to see his potential immediately due to his weight and finding a position in the NBA. That discovery will be the make or break of Ingram reaching his potential. You have to be able to stay on the court defensively enough. He is not, and may never be, strong enough to guard a power forward. So as great of a shooter and ball handler as he is, this was the differentiating factor for me with Simmons and Ingram. I have no doubt in my mind that Ingram will be great offensively and be a mismatch for teams. He can shoot amazingly and could be the next Durant. But having height isn’t enough. It will be interesting to see how he develops.

3-Dragan Bender

Star Potential: High

Bust Potential: High

Shooting: Medium

Defense: Medium

The problem with Dragan Bender is he is still relatively unknown. There is video footage of him but he plays against weak competition and didn’t get a ton of playing time. I would find him more attractive if he was willing to spend another year overseas but what it seems like is that he is ready to come over the NBA immediately. That said, I believe he and Jaylen Brown are the biggest risks in this draft. Bender has the highest ceiling of all the players outside of the top two. If he can continue to develop his outside shot, inside game, and defense, he will be something special. He is already a great passer and can handle the ball a little bit. He fits the trend of where the game is headed. He would be a tremendous compliment to Towns at the 4 or 5.

4-Timothe Luwawu

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Star Potential: Medium

Bust Potential: Low

Shooting: Medium

Defense: Very High

What is attractive to me about Luwawu is he seems polished and athletic for a rookie. For anyone outside of the top three picks, he feels like the least likely to not be out of the NBA in five years. The reason being is that there is always a job for a 3-and-D guy, especially at the molding of Coach Thibodeau. His shot has improved to where there is hope he can be an above average shooter in the league, making him probably one of the better shooters on the team. Defensively, he is long, athletic and can guard anywhere from a point guard to small forward. Luwawu seems like the perfect combination of being able to contribute right away and still having a good amount of potential. If the Wolves get the 5th pick and the top three guys are off the board, Luwawu is whom I go with. There is still a month from the draft and I am sure this is the highest Luwawu will be until then.

5-Jamal Murray

Star Potential: Very Medium

Bust Potential: Medium

Shooting: High

Defense: Low

Jamal Murray can shoot and can score. He is also pretty versatile in that he can play the point guard and shooting guard. Adding to that, he is young and could potentially be one of the better shooters in the league with time. That is why I am such a fan. He isn’t the most gifted athletic and struggles defensively for sure. But he has enough size in which he can disrupt an offense or stay with two-guards, even if they are a second point guard. That said, I also don’t believe grabbing him at 5 would be what would happen in a normal draft. Also, scoring in college doesn’t always translate to scoring in the NBA.  That said, he seems like the type of prospect who would potentially be considered one of the better players in this draft five years from now. His offensive game already looks like a seasoned veteran’s.

6-Kris Dunn

Star Potential: High

Bust Potential: Medium

Shooting: Low

Defense: Medium

I am not crazy about Kris Dunn. I do believe he has the same ceiling as Bender nonetheless with less risk. My problem with Dunn is that I feel he used his size to his advantage in college to get to where he is. There is nothing wrong with that but it is not something that translates well at the NBA level.

7-Jacob Poeltl

Star Potential: Medium

Bust Potential: High

Shooting: Low

Defense: Medium

I am a fan of Poeltl, as of late at least. He is growing on me. He is a solid scoring with his back to the basket and within 15-feet. He can be a terror on the offensive boards and a sound defender. He is a prototypical center and reminds me of Vucevic without a jump shot. I think he could be a solid starting center in the NBA. I don’t believe he fits in with the Wolves entirely well nonetheless. The Wolves have Dieng already.

8-Buddy Hield

Star Potential: Medium

Bust Potential: Medium

Shooting: Very High

Defense: Low

Buddy is Buddy. I would not be upset if the Wolves grabbed Buddy at 5. He can shoot the lights out. He can provide an immediate impact on the offensive side of the floor. My concern is everywhere else. How will he react when he isn’t the focal point of an offense? Can he improve his shot selection? Will he be able to defend so he can stay on the court? While I love Buddy, I am more in the camp of ‘Meh’ when it comes to the idea of him playing for the Wolves. I would rather grab Jamal Murray.

9-Jaylen Brown

Star Potential: Very medium

Bust Potential: High

Shooting: Medium

Defense: Medium

I’ll be honest Jaylen Brown scares me. He is a prototypical small forward who is gifted physically. He is quick and athletic. He is also a solid slasher. But he has been so inconsistent in his one year that its hard to justify taking him in the top 5. I am certain as the draft approaches, he will not be someone that moves up. I have him rated fairly low but it is where I think it is worth taking the risk at. I was a much bigger fan of Ivan Rabb but he went back for another year, which will likely benefit him. Brown has some star potential, but his risk is scary to me. Nothing stands out about him. It will be interesting what happens with him the next few weeks.

10 – Wade Baldwin

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Star Potential: Slightly Medium

Bust Potential: Low

Shooting: High

Defense: High

If the Wolves trade down, Wade Baldwin is a player I believe needs to be taken into serious consideration. The 6-3 point guard has a 6-11 wingspan and can do a lot on the court. That is the biggest differential in this year’s draft. He is another 3-and-D guy and reminds me of Avery Bradley, another player I love. Baldwin is capable of guarding both guard positions and has a good shooting stroke. What makes me really excited about Baldwin is that these skills are there. I don’t believe he will be a star in the league, but I do believe he has the least amount of bust potential if looking for a role player. He is slated to go mid-first round, but to me is worth looking at if the Wolves drop to 6. It sounds crazy but I value his skill set. He is going to have to learn to create offense for himself but depending on how he is used, that may not be necessary. Dunn is above him for the fact that Dunn can create for him and others and is more of a true point guard. Baldwin has a lower ceiling but I think his value as a glue-guy on the Wolves would be more valuable than another star. Again, if I am drafting 6th or find a way to trade down, this is who I hope the Wolves are targeting.

11-Skal Libassiere

Star Potential: Medium

Bust Potential: High

Shooting: Low

Defense: High

I instinctively am intrigued by Skal and what he could be. I personally will be very interested to see how he ends up in whatever situation it is he ends up in. He has ‘project’ and probably ‘D-league’ written all over him. But as a team that can take risks at this point, I don’t mind seeing if he can be turned into something that meets the potential many believed he had prior to this one season at Kentucky. A lot will come out about Skal over the next few weeks.

12- Henry Ellenson

Star Potential: Medium

Bust Potential: High

Shooting: Low

Defense: Low

Offensively, Ellenson can stretch the floor and score in a multitude of ways. He is also a very good rebounder. The reason I have him so low is because he can’t defend the 4 or 5 and definitely won’t be able to be on the floor if teams go small, as trends are moving towards in the league. I also am not convinced he is more than a role player in the league. I can’t justify taking a player with that ceiling on the top 10. I don’t think he will be a starter on a winning team in the NBA and so currently, I am fairly low on him. Sorry Minnesota faithful, I hope the hometown kid doesn’t play for the Wolves. Plus, can you seriously trust a Minnesotan who played in Wisconsin? That was a joke…

13- Devonta Davis

Star Potential: Medium

Bust Potential: High

Shooting: Low

Defense: High

Davis is the prototypical project big that comes out of the draft. He has Myles Turner/ Bobby Portis type of potential. He could very well surprise people when he gets to the league. Could be a serviceable big man.

14 – Furkan Korkmaz

Star Potential: Medium

Bust Potential: Medium

Shooting: Medium

Defense: Low

18 years old and from Turkey. Has a solid offensive game and could be a draft and stash option. I like the very limited amount I have seen from him. He is a late lottery candidate.

 

15 – Demetrius Jackson

Star Potential: Medium

Bust Potential: High

Shooting: Medium

Defense: Medium

He is a typical point guard and actually pretty good. The reason I have him so low is because he isn’t a combo guard and right now for the Wolves, that puts him behind Rubio and Jones. He is an athletic freak, which is exciting. I would love to see him as a Spur.

16 – Marquese Chriss

Bonus here. He is moving up draft boards mainly because there aren’t many power forward prospects.

 

Thank is all for now. Again, this will be adjusted after the lottery and through workouts. These boards change so quickly up through the draft and will look even crazier a few years from now. So sometimes it’s not about how right these rankings are, it is about how wrong they will look years from now.

Who the Wolves take will be an entirely different question. A lot depends on where the Wolves end up. The Wolves could trade down and they could somehow win the draft lottery again. Tell me, how crazy would that be??

Until next time.

The Timber Rebuilder.

A Long Term View of the Wolves to Clear up the Short Term

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When I disagree with the majority of Wolves fans on a subject, it typically inspires me to write. The stance on the Al Horford is one of those instances. While I love Horford as a player and  a mentor for his Dominican brother Karl-Anthony Towns, I generally don’t see him as a great fit for a couple reasons that aren’t necessarily related to his style of play. Horford is a great player and would definitely serve as a great mentor for the young pups. He is an anchor defensively and can stretch the defense with his shooting ability. He also managed to win a national championship in college dealing with Joakim Noah and Corey Brewer on the team. That is truly impressive.

The reason for being against Horford is long-winded. It took me down a path of the long-term outlook of the team. The team is young and could go in a multitude of directions over the next five years. But its important to look at the roster’s cap space and how it aligns with what the team is attempting to accomplish in that given season. What the team may be thinking about as a top priorities in a given season. Its very idealistic.

To do this, I have to assume a consistent career trajectory for the young players. I have to assume career-changing injuries don’t happen. I have to assume extremely significant moves aren’t made on a year-to-year basis. The outlook is focused on how the current players and assets play into the future. So it’s hard to do. But we will take a stab at it given what we know. First, here are the players’ salaries drawn out through 2019-2020. That is only four seasons from now. (via HoopsHype.com)

PLAYER NAME 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21
Ricky Rubio $12,700,000 $13,400,000 $14,100,000 $14,800,000 $0 $0
Nikola Pekovic $12,100,000 $12,100,000 $11,600,000 $0 $0 $0
Kevin Garnett $8,500,000 $8,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $0
Kevin Martin $7,085,000 $3,336,000 $0 $0 $0 $0
Andrew Wiggins $5,758,680 $6,006,600 $7,574,322 $9,846,619 $0 $0
Karl-Anthony Towns $5,703,600 $5,960,160 $6,216,840 $7,839,435 $10,191,265 $0
Nemanja Bjelica $3,950,000 $3,800,000 $3,950,000 $0 $0 $0
Anthony Bennett $3,650,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Zach LaVine $2,148,360 $2,240,880 $3,202,217 $4,428,666 $0 $0
Shabazz Muhammad $2,056,920 $3,046,299 $4,237,401 $0 $0 $0
Adreian Payne $1,938,840 $2,022,240 $3,100,093 $4,333,931 $0 $0
Tayshaun Prince $1,499,187 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Gorgui Dieng $1,474,440 $2,348,782 $3,384,596 $0 $0 $0
Tyus Jones $1,282,080 $1,339,680 $1,397,400 $2,444,052 $3,573,204 $0
Damjan Rudez $1,149,500 $1,199,000 $0 $0 $0 $0
Andre Miller $1,093,525 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Greg Smith $197,111 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
TOTALS $72,287,243 $63,600,641 $29,650,000 $14,800,000 $0 $0
We will look at seasons in the view of what the team is trying to accomplish as of the off-season. A few things to note. This is a rough outlook. I am not taking exact figures to project anything, just a broad forecast. There will be a lot of generalizations about dollar figures that may not be completely accurate. I am also not a salary cap expert. Just throwing paint and seeing where it sticks. So here we go..

2016-17 Season

Goal: Make the Playoffs

Priorities: Development of Players.

There is no doubt that for the next season the Wolves will want to make the playoffs. The team is young but with a coach like Thibs, its possible to make it happen. The playoff experience in this season would be extremely valuable for the young guys down the road. They will get to taste what it’s like. They will get to build on it for the future. So Thibs and Scott Layden have to be thinking that adding a couple veterans to the team could help boost the Wolves into the 8th spot. Using Flip’s model of mentoring, getting guys that can contribute and teach will be a top priority in Free Agency.

Thibodeau has said the Wolves will acquire players that align with the trajectory of the current roster. So this leads me to believe that whatever player that is signed/ traded for either is young enough to grow with the Wolves or old enough to contribute for two seasons max and fall off the books before the slew of contract extensions begin. This is precisely why I don’t believe Al Horford is the guy for the job. Horford is 29 and has a history of injuries that have plagued his career. With the cap increasing, Horford will seek Max dollars for a long time. With Horford in his prime now, he will regress as his salary increases. I wouldn’t be opposed to offering a Max contract to Horford if he were willing to take one for two, maybe even three years. But if I am Horford, I can get a four-year max offer or better in many places due to the Salary Cap increase.

Speaking on the Salary Cap increase quickly. The entire league more or less has cap space. The Wolves will have a maximum of $28M available this summer. That is going to lead to many players getting overpaid. The value of money is less when everyone has it, right? Save the cap space for someone worth it. KD would definitely be worth it. Other than that though, stick to the plan and focus on making the playoffs.

So who fits into helping the Wolves making the playoffs without burning a hole in our pockets? If I am the Wolves, I am looking at Luol Deng and Jamal Crawford. Deng has been impressive playing the stretch four and has a history with Thibs. His defense is great and a very good 3-point shooter. Outside of Crawford being LaVine’s mentor with their connection to Seattle, Thibs has historically been a fan of Jamal Crawford. Crawford could help the Wolves scoring off the bench and step into the 1 or 2 as needed. A combination of these two guys fill some gaps for the Wolves. They also compliment the team if they decide to trade the 5th pick and Shabazz, as I suggest in my piece for last week.
What to do with Shabazz Muhammad is going to be something figured out over the course of the coming summer and/ or the 16-17 season. Where does he fit on the bench and in his role. Can he defend to be a net-positive player? Can the Wolves maximize his trade value? To me, he seems most valuable packaged alongside a draft pick if being traded. But I also think his ability to score off the bench will be necessary going forward, at least in the short-run.
2017-18 Season
Goal: Make the Playoffs, maybe advance
Priorities: Compete, Development, Retain Dieng
Summer after year 1 with Thibodeau. Fans expectations will likely become a little more realistic. We will also have a better idea of what this team is actually capable of. It will likely be the end of KG’s career, which financially means $8M will open up in cap space. If the Wolves follow the formula of getting cheap, formidable veterans in 16-17, they could potentially make a big splash in free agency this summer to make a push in 17-18. Things to note: LaVine and Wiggins will be 22 prior to the season and Towns will be 21.
A big decision will be what happens with Gorgui Dieng. How does he fit as a piece of the puzzle. Dieng will be 27 prior to the season and will likely look for a contract extension during the 16-17 season or will enter restricted free agency. Seeing a decent amount of cap space in the summer before 17-18, the Wolves could offer a contract similar to what Ricky Rubio received. Dieng will likely be a starter or at least an important part of the Wolves’ rotation. I can see him getting overpaid here, but offers enough to almost deserve it. The question will be, will he get a max contract? Again, this depends on many outcomes of the 16-17 season. But from a Wolves perspective, that may be a trap. The Wolves will need to extend LaVine, Wiggins and Towns who are 5-6 years younger.
The Wolves will likely have some trade bait. Depending on the league cap space environment and what happens between now and then, Nikola Pekovic will be on the final year of his contract for the 17-18 season. If there is a team looking for cap space then and the Wolves can benefit from taking on a contract of equal value to help them in the playoffs, it may be worth considering.

2018-19 Season
Goal: Compete for Western Conference Title
Priorities: Retain Talent
If we do the math, LaVine/ Wiggins will be 23 and Towns 22. This seems so far away but yet these guys stay so young. If you are still reading this from the top, you are awesome and this is why the Horford signing would be problematic. The Wolves will have a lot of extensions to start thinking about prior to the 18-19 summer. Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine would potentially be restricted free agents this summer if not already extended. Chances are Andrew Wiggins would receive a max contract and Zach LaVine close to that. Cap Space will be of essence to retain these guys. The only guys under contract as of now would be Towns, Tyus Jones and Ricky Rubio.
Rubio will be moving into the final year of his contract. He will be 27 going into the 18-19 season. It will be known at this point whether he is a part of the future of the franchise. Health and shooting will be big factors to deciding that by this point. If he proves he is a significant contributor to the success of this team, he will likely look for near max money. Ideally, whoever is signed in the summer of 2016 will be expired by now. Dieng could be taking in a significant amount of money and if the Wolves did replace Pekovic’s salary, there may not be enough pie to go around with LaVine and Wiggins.
Here is where the VERY rough estimates start getting thrown around: Wiggins at $20M, LaVine at $20M, Dieng at $17M, Towns at $8M, and two others accounting for, lets say, $10M (one being Tyus at $3M). That is $75M for 6 players alone. The league will likely have a salary cap of over $108M since the cap is projected to be around that for the 17-18 season once the new CBA is agreed upon.
Long story short, that leaves no less than $33M for the remaining 9 players on the Wolves roster, knowing the team will likely need to extend Towns to a max contract the next summer. This means, for Rubio to remain with the Wolves after this season, he will not be able to get a max contract. So this will be an interesting headline if and when we get to it.

2019-20 Season
Goal: Championship
Priorities: Retain Towns, development
I won’t go into too much depth here but before this summer will be finding a way to keep Towns long-term. The Wolves core will be entering their very early prime years. This is no excuse to not compete nonetheless. The Wolves have to believe that prior to the 19-20 season, if all things go right, they should be competing for a championship.
Chances are the Wolves have a ton of players we can’t predict will be on the roster at this point. So the development of role players, preferably younger, will be important since the Wolves will have money tied up.

Conclusion: If all goes well, the Wolves will not have all the flexibility in the world if they look to hold on to Wiggins, LaVine, Towns, and Dieng. But if they all develop, it may make sense to keep that team together. What we do see is that free agency decisions we make this summer, do impact what the Wolves do in what should be a pivotal summer prior to the 18-19 season when the Wolves should be competing. Ideally whoever the Wolves target this summer are short term boosts that don’t have long-term salary implications.

Where We Were a Just Year Ago

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A famous musician from the 6 once said “Time heals all, but heels hurt to walk in” in a song. This musician happens to be a Raptors fan, but this can relate to many of things.

Dissecting this ‘bar’ real quick, the Wolves have come a long way in a year. But it didn’t come without any bumps or bruises. While things typically get better with time, it doesn’t mean it never gets worse first. As we sit and are hopeful for the future for the franchise with the addition of Tom Thibodeau and the emergence of the Wolves young players, it wasn’t always clear we would end up here.

If you didn’t know, the Timber Rebuilder has been officially up and running for a year now. What started as an experiment a year ago, it has turned into a fun ride. I am surprised by the consistency I’ve been able to provide to the blog amongst all the life changing events that have occurred in my personal life in the last year. What I have realized though is that the Wolves community is great. And for a shameless plug, thanks to all that have provided support for the Timber Rebuilder and all of the fans that have consistently read and interacted with the blog.

Back to the purpose of the piece. Its quite intriguing to look back at what our sentiment was a year ago, here in the Timber Rebuilder’s first post. I accidentally tweeted and posted this on Facebook today in preparations for this post. But the Wolves had just experienced a 16 win season, the worst in the league. But there was hope for what Rookie of the Year Andrew Wiggins provided. A dynamic scorer and promising defender. Then there was Shabazz Muhammad who played great in a season that ended short due to injury. Zach LaVine won the dunk contest and showed flashes of being a consistent player late in the season, although he was one of the worst players getting consistent minutes in the NBA. There were still a lot of insecurities and the Wolves were a few pieces away.

The Wolves were just about to enter the Draft Lottery with the best odds. The Wolves had never won the lottery in its 26 year history. In the top 3 were three outstanding freshmen. Jahlil Okafor, Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell. Flip Saunders was known to be in love with the offensively gifted Okafor who recently won a National Championship alongside future Timberwolf Tyus Jones. The Wolves would’ve been happy with any one of those three players, which was indicated by a video during the draft lottery when the team was excited to get pick two. Then Flip was saying ‘I’m greedy, give me one more” and then boom, the number one pick.

From that day forward, drastic change began to re-form the Wolves. Who would’ve imagined that Karl-Anthony Towns at that moment would have one of the best rookie seasons in recent history? Who would’ve imagined that the late Flip Saunders would never coach again? Who would’ve imagined that Tom Thibodeau would take over the reigns a year later? My guess is, very few.

The Wolves in the last year have discovered a lot. Anthony Bennett was officially a bust. Karl-Anthony Towns was not. Wiggins may not be as good of a defender as we expected. Thibs could change that. Gorgui Dieng is likely a part of the long term plan. We still don’t know about Shabazz. LaVine could be the best shooter on the team and the future shooting guard long-term.

The Wolves were then one of the most exciting teams in the league and now more so. So what is in store for the next year? Which player will benefit most from Thibodeau? Will the Wolves make the playoffs? Who will the Wolves draft, if any? Who will the Wolves sign? What is going to happen with KG? Will the Wolves extend Dieng and/ or Shabazz? Will they trade anyone? The biggest question is though: Will we be as excited this time, a year from now?

While this blog post just turned into sounding like the end of an episode of Dragon Ball Z, its a good time to reflect. Timber Rebuilder has been up and running for a year. Its the offseason. And we can’t stop thinking about what’s next. There will certainly be more to come with the draft combine and the NBA Lottery May 17th. Until then…

The Timber Rebuilder.

BREAKING: Tom Thibodeau To Be Hired. Now What?

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Time to learn to spell it folks. T-H-I-B-O-D-E-A-U. He will be the next Head Coach and President of Basketball Operations for the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The deal is said to be worth $10M per year for five years. Attached in the deal is Spurs Assistant GM Scott Layden who will become the Wolves General Manager. So that means, good bye Milt Newton. The Wolves were interested in Jeff Van Gundy and Mark Jackson as alternatives. Rumors swirled around Scott Brooks and Dave Jourger as well.

After the immediate dismisal of Sam Mitchell, Glen Taylor and the search firm Korn Ferry interviewed and now have hired a head coach just a week after the final game. Tom Thibodeau, known for being the defensive guru with the Boston Celtics when Garnett and co. won the championship, comes over in full control after being fired by the Chicago Bulls a year ago. The Bulls made it to the playoffs every year under Thibs, while this season they didn’t under coach Fred Hoiberg.

Thibodeau’s name was thrown around quite a bit in the middle of the season when a potential minority ownership group was looking to make a deal with Glen Taylor. Nothing came from it and folks moved on. As the Wolves finished the season strong under coach Sam Mitchell by beating the Warriors and the Blazers on the road, ESPN and others began hyping the heck out of this Wolves job. Its been said to be the most sought after job in the league. Thibodeau has been one of the most sought after head coaches that doesn’t have a job. Thibs also helped Derrick Rose become an MVP and Jimmy Butler an All-Star. It will be interesting to see what Thobodeau can do with the likes of Towns, Wiggins, LaVine, and the rest of the young Wolves.

In his previous life, Thibodeau was a long time assistant coach. He started his career ironically with the Timberwolves in their inaugural season (see pic above). He then was an assistant with the Rockets and Knicks under Jeff Van Gundy.

The main concern around Thibs has been his nature of driving players into the ground and overworking them. I am sure it has been brought up in interviews and if the Wolves have decided this quickly on Thibodeau, then (I hope!) the topic has probably been cleared. Glen Taylor does not want to see Towns or Wiggins’ careers ended early because of this move.

Now that the process is over, we will likely look back on this move as the inflection point of the Wiggins/ Towns saga. The Franchise will now begin to concave up or down. The slope positive or negative. Calculus talk for anyone who gets it. If Sam Mitchell was tasked with remaining the head coach, the franchise would’ve likely continued floating in the realms of mediocrity. Bringing in Tom Thibodeau for the priced that has been finalized means one thing. Championships. Taylor, Thibodeau, and the players that are a part of the core will begin building and fighting for a championship one day. The first step will be making the playoffs and ending the longest active streak of not making the playoffs in the NBA.

The immediate next steps are a few things. First, the draft. The Wolves will need to see what players are of interest and what the value around the league will be for the position in which the Wolves pick. Then, a roster evaluation will likely  be done. On the chopping block will likely be the likes of Shabazz Muhammad, Ricky Rubio and Adriean Payne. How does Thibs feel about these guys? Thibodeau will also have to hire a staff. Listening to Sam Mitchell this morning, it sounded like he was open to returning. What about Ryan Saunders? Ernie Kander? Then will be development and free agency. How will these guys improve through next season? What will be done with the cap space?

All this says is, it is going to be an awesome offseason and 2016-17 season. Keep following for more Wolves t-logs!

The Timber Rebuilder.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2015-16 Season Review and Takeaways

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usa-today-8956594.0Its done. Another season over. It probably won’t hit us until the finals are over. But now, we wait until another season kicks off next October. Our young pups one year older and hopefully a storied head coach to lead the pack. I will say, it was one of the most exciting seasons for the Wolves, maybe ever. But to look back, we will look at what we learned and what we can look forward to. Please support by sharing, retweeting and liking this. It will mean the world!

Another season wraps up and it is again another season the Wolves don’t make the playoffs, hence the blog name. It is now 12 consecutive seasons without making the playoffs. The Wolves finish the season at 29 -53. While many saw Sam Mitchell‘s magic number as 27 wins, he was immediately relieved of his interim coaching duties just an hour after the game. A portion of this review would’ve been to understand what happens with coach Mitchell, but that has been decided already.

A review is not a review unless it has something to measure against, thus, we used our Season Preview Here as the basis of our analysis. How did the Wolves perform against expectations that we personally had when the season started? Here were the keys to success and the bold predictions.

Keys to Success:

  • Get the Young Pups Minutes, together.
  • You have Veterans, Use them. (Unofficial mentors, change Martin’s role, Pek rough up guys)
  • Compete!
  • Develop Roles Now
  • Find a Diamond in the Rough

Get the Young Pups Minutes, together. It was a long season. It wasn’t until X amount of games into the season did we see the starting lineup of Rubio/ LaVine/ Wiggins/ Dieng/ Towns. It remains incomplete of seeing how Shabazz looks as a small ball four. Earlier in the season as well, there was no logic around the limited minutes that Towns was receiving. All that said, Wiggins and Towns got a majority of their minutes together as the top two scorers on the team. LaVine had been up and down, but mainly up since the All-Star break. Especially in the last stretch of games on the final road trip, the Wolves strung together 3-straight encouraging wins. One over the Warriors, another for the season sweep of the Kings, and the final one on a buzzer beater by Towns against Portland. I won’t say the Wolves did as good as they could’ve done in this aspect, it definitely wasn’t a failure. I hate when opportunities are lost. There were many games in which Kevin Martin or Tayshaun Prince were starting and it didn’t make sense for this season or next. But its finally coming together.. The Wolves get a Pass grade here.

You have Veterans, Use them. I think the Wolves re-engineered how rebuilds should work in this aspect. While Andre Miller ripped the Wolves as an organization, the Wolves leveraged the abilities and experiences the veterans on the roster had until they could literally take the training wheels off (releasing K-Mart and Andre Miller) and let the young pups roam freely. Garnett can be partially credited for the emergence of KAT as their personalities seem to mesh. I look forward to the day that Towns begins to talk trash and can make references to Honey Nut Cheerios in an offensive manner to discourage his opponents. While Pek didn’t get the opportunity to play much, I am sure he roughed up a few of the kids this season. Tayshaun Prince has also been a class act. While it will probably be his only season here, he played his role to the fullest, whether it was starting or off the bench. He was an absolute professional. All in all, I believe this was a huge bright spot this season. I am sure it will pay dividends in the future.

Compete! The Wolves started and ended the season competing. The Wolves were at one point 8-8 and ended the season 4-1. The team is capable of competing. Something happened in the middle of the season and it wasn’t pretty. The Wolves just kept on losing. That said, they weren’t getting blown out as often as they had in previous seasons. They would make a lot of come backs and blow a lot of leads. That is understandable for  a young team. The learning curve is still there in pulling out tight games. Had they done that, the Wolves could’ve probably won 10 more games.

Develop Roles Now. The only roles that were truly developed were that of Towns, Wiggins, and maybe LaVine. Rubio is still on the fringe of ‘am I a part of this thing?’ or not. LaVine looks to be fitting into the starting 2-guard spot but its highly dependent upon Rubio playing alongside him and then being able to play more consistently in the future. Shabazz and Dieng’s roles are still in flux. Bjelica is still a question mark. Unfortunately the questions going into the season were answered with questions going out.

Find a Diamond in the Rough. My hope is Bjelica or Jones would surprise this season. Maybe even Payne. But they didn’t. There is still hope for Bjelica and Jones though. More so for Jones. They weren’t able to get lucky. My hope is the Wolves dig deep this offseason and find a free agent that can provide some value off the bench next season. I am a personal fan of James Ennis, but thats a random suggestion.

 

Bold Predictions:

  • Wolves don’t make the playoffs. End season 39-43. Will probably laugh at this in April.
  • Zach LaVine becomes starting SG by the end of the year
  • Dieng becomes a starter by the end of the year
  • Muhammad get consideration for 6th Man of the Year
  • Wiggins is an All-Star (More so due to All-Star game being in Toronto)
  • Sam Mitchell will last this season
  • Karl Towns will be a top three consideration for ROY

I got a few of these right. The Wolves didn’t make the playoffs but also over predicted the wins. I do believe had the Wolves played like they have at the end of the season, in the middle of the season, there is no reason why they couldn’t have won 10 more games. They lost over 20 within 5 points. But to win 29 games this season is above their Vegas odds which is alright. The expectations grew nonetheless as the Wolves finished the season strong. A lot more eyes will be on what happens next season.

Just tracking Zach LaVine this season would be a good indication of how the season went. LaVine entered the pre-season as the starting shooting guard and then started the season as the backup point guard. Rubio would get injured early on which pushed LaVine into the starting lineup again as the Point Guard. Rubio would come back and then LaVine went back to the bench. The Wolves then went on a long stretch of the season struggling with coach Mitchell juggling Kevin Martin and Tayshaun Prince in the starting lineup alongside LaVine. It became evident that for LaVine to be successful, he needed to play alongside Rubio. Time went on and dunk contests were won, then LaVine found and cemented his role as the starting shooting guard. LaVine did this by adding a lot of scoring, an impressive 3-point shot, and flashes of decent defense. His shot selection remains questionable but these were huge strides for Zach. He heads into next season as the likely starter again.

Gorgui Dieng also found his way into the starting lineup. It was partially deserved and partially opportune. Garnett rested for a majority of the second half of the season with a knee injury, which left an incredible hole at the power forward position. Bjelica would’ve been the guy to step in but he also suffered a mysterious leg injury around the All-Star break and probably a serious breakup with how shot his confidence was. While Dieng didn’t necessarily come out and prove that he is the starting power forward of the future, he did show just how versatile he can be. Dieng finally has a more defined role. He is the glue guy in the front court. He fills in and does what is needed. You need rim protection and rebounds? This is your guy. Sprinkle in a couple threes? Why not. Most importantly, Dieng proved that he can co-exist with Karl-Anthony Towns. This will prove his value and likely earn him a contract extension next season. The interesting thing about Dieng is his numbers are down from last season but seems like he has improved greatly over the course of this year. He still has some questionable moments on the court, but I think he can be a long-term fit here in Minnesota.

Shabazz Muhammad. I was wrong on this one. No consideration for 6th man of the year. Although Shabazz was amongst the top bench scorers this season (6th best in the league), he couldn’t find a consistent role on the team. He struggled with sharing the ball and his body language always indicated he was off. Maybe it was Sam Mitchell? Who knows. Shabazz played a key role in a few games nonetheless, especially in the win over the Warriors where he scored 35 points. But going into next season, it is contract extension or free agency for Bazz so I am sure his name will be on the hot stove this summer. Regardless, I still believe he has significant talent. But his potential may not be realized in Minnesota. #FreeShabazz

Wiggins wasn’t an All Star either. Strike 2. I was swinging for the fences. But I expected a breakout season and some home court advantage. Wiggins improved on his scoring but not much else. Wiggins will at some point need to fill in the void of not having a ‘3 and D’ guy on the team. Once Wiggins can prove he can be amongst the best defensively, it will be hard to call him an All-Star. A few wins might help as well.

‘Sam Mitchell will last this season.’ Has a prediction ever been more accurate? I was off by one hour. Sam Mitchell lasted this season and an hour of the offseason. Sam Mitchell had an up and down season. Mitchell started the season belittling any external opinion about the team and getting angry at anyone who asked him a question. Then there was the stretch in which the Wolves couldn’t buy a win and the questions began to swirl as to would he complete the season. Completing the season made sense, why fire a guy where it could rock the boat with the young core at such a crucial stage in their careers? Sam then began to prove himself, it seemed like after the Milwaukee Bucks loss in which he sat the starters for a majority of the second half to prove a point. I was a skeptic about this game for sure.  But the team turned it around after that and ended the season winning four of their last five. Mitchell will likely move on and be an assistant coach somewhere. He did what he could and I believe he truly helped the young guys grow this season. But when the pool of available coaches is as good as it is and the team is as attractive of a job as it is right now, a change on the bench was necessary. It will be interesting to see what happens with the external firm that will look to fill the positions of head coach and POBO.

The final prediction. Karl Towns being in the top 3 of the ROY candidates. This was like dropping a pen from eye-level and predicting it would hit the ground. Towns blew the ROY competition out of the water and made his way into history this season. The only comparable rookies to Towns in history are Shaq and Tim Duncan. The numbers don’t lie. Towns finished the season averaging 18.3 points, 10.5 rebounds, 2 assists, 1.7 blocks, 54% field goal, 34% 3-point, 81% free throws, and 51 double-doubles on the year. Towns broke almost every record imaginable for a rookie in franchise history. The best part though? His attitude. Karl-Anthony Towns is a culture changer. And to do that for a franchise that has not made the playoffs for 12 consecutive seasons is special. Watching KAT play this season alongside the other young pups made the losing bearable. It was a joy to watch him play this season. He was absolutely versatile and played like a seasoned-veteran. There are no words to describe how good he played, but it was beautiful to see it happen over the span of 82 games. Towns will go on to win Rookie of the Year but I also believe he should receive consideration for All-NBA 3rd team.

Takeaways:

While it was another losing season, it was far from disappointing. What did we learn? What can we take away?

Towns and Wiggins are going to be special. For a long time. Towns may be the perfect compliment to Wiggins and vice versa. Both still have holes in their games but its nothing some hard work over the summer and a few more seasons of experience can’t fix. Towns will need to learn to defend better on pick-and-rolls and on the perimeter. He has shown that he can do it but hasn’t shown he can do it consistently. Wiggins also needs to improve defensively. Wiggins also has a major need to improve his 3-point shot. Both guys did things great in creating their own shots. Wiggins also got to the line at will. Moving forward, both guys will need to be more consistent and take their games to the next level. Easy to say from my perspective. Regardless, these two should be something special with the right team and right coach around them.

LaVine, the sky’s the limit. In terms of his potential and his ability to leap, his only limitation is the sky. LaVine has improved tremendously over this season and should be the starting shooting guard for this team long term. His three point shot and defense improved, things that were necessarily for him to see consistent minutes. He can score at will when the opportunity it there. The hope is next season, he gets stronger and smarter. Also hope that he can shoot at the rate he did in the second half of this season. Defensively, he is growing into a non-liability. If LaVine can figure out how to be a net positive player on the defensive end, I will put him up there with Towns and Wiggins.

Rubio is healthy and necessary. Rubio can’t shoot. And the team should proceed with the assumption that he may never be able to shoot. But he does provide a positive impact on the floor. The Wolves are +18 when he is on the floor for the season. He is a great defender, great facilitator, and creates points for his team. He can hit the occasional three. The concern is floor stretching when he is out there, but he will keep teams honest in the clutch. Plus, Rubio is a winner. I am sure there will be Rubio trade rumors swirling this summer, but I think he just provides more value than can be received for him via trade. Lastly, and most importantly, Rubio was healthy. He seemed to miss more games than expected because Ernie Kander is a genius at what he does. The ‘injury-prone’ tag is on pause for now with Rubio. Next season will be a true test for Ricky. He put up numbers that were mainly consistent to what he has done every year, but if he can improve those numbers next season while staying healthy, he will have earned his paycheck.

There’s a huge hole at the 4. We knew Anthony Bennett was garbage. But turns out Payne is as well. Payne likely won’t work out here and probably needs to play elsewhere where he can develop a role. Bjelica didn’t perform to expectations, although the final five games he began to turn things around. I think Bjelica still can be the four on this team, but it would be a huge risk. Garnett is being a paid mentor at this point. The issue is there are four power forwards on the roster and none are capable, consistent starters. My guess is Rudez and Payne will be gone and replaced by a fringe starter that can help stretch the floor.

Shabazz has value. Don’t waste it. Something needs to be done with Shabazz. He either needs to be dealt this summer or has a role carved out for him in which he can thrive in. I still have hope that he can be an asset off of the bench and an energy guy. But he needs to be in a situation in which he can make mistakes and the team can live with his style of play. If those are not things that can be compromised, Shabazz should be traded in which he still has trade value around the league. Shabazz could be packaged with the 1st rounder in which it could really bring back some value to a fringe-playoff team that is looking to get a head start on rebuilding (OKC, Houston, Washington DC, Dallas).

The Wolves still need shooters. This seems like a problem for the Wolves since Fred Hoiberg retired. Maybe re-sign Anthony Peeler this summer? I am sure he can still shoot. Regardless how this void is filled, it needs to be addressed because the league is moving at a faster pace that the Wolves are moving. A practical solution to this would make this an incredible focus for the core guys on the roster. Rubio, Wiggins and Muhammad were bad this season. If two of them can be average shooters, that can be step one. Then a continuation of LaVine and Towns’ shooting improvements is more progress. Bjelica can be the 3-point specialist needed if he has the confidence. Then of course there is the draft and free agency, which is filled with 3-point shooters. Hield and Murray make sense in the draft and then Teletovic can make sense in free agency.

Tyus can still fit. I was very critical early on of Tyus Jones. He isn’t fast or athletic enough to hang with point guards at this level. But he proved that he could stay afloat in the second half of the season when Andre Miller was released. I think he still needs time to develop but he showed this season he can play. The hope is he can be the backup point guard next season. There will likely need to be a solid insurance policy in the 3rd string spot in case Rubio is hurt. I wouldn’t feel comfortable with Tyus starting but think if LaVine filled in, it could still potentially work. More to come with Tyus.

Time to swing for the fences. Sam Mitchell was capable of remaining the coach for the Wolves. He was at least worthy of remaining in the conversation for who would be next. But there is clearly more to the story we don’t know, and at the first opportunity he had, Glen Taylor parted ways with Mitchell. Tom Thibodeau seems like the right fit for the job moving forward from the Wolves perspective. He will likely require a nice paycheck, but it may be time to take the risk. Thibs has a good relationship with KG and was a big reason the Celtics won their championship. Thibs also helped develop some nice players in his time in Chicago. Having a blank defensive canvas to work with in Andrew Wiggins and Karl Towns could be scary for the league. It just makes too much sense to actually happen.

Before we leave…

It was a historic season. The Warriors broke the Bulls record with a record of 73-9 this season. Steph Curry hit a record breaking 402 three pointers. Kobe Bryant has retired. On his way out, he dropped 60 points in his last game. Then quietly, the Spurs had their best record in franchise history with 67 wins. On the Wolves end, the season started with the untimely passing of the late Flip Saunders. The Wolves got lucky to land Karl-Anthony Towns and the future has never been brighter. It will be a season to be remembered.

Lastly, thanks for following this season. We have successfully completed our first season covering the Wolves. If you have suggestions or feedback that can help us improve the site, let us know! It has been a great deal of fun and we look forward to being a part of the Wolves community for the foreseeable future!

The Stakes Have Never Been Higher

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As the Wolves enter the All-Star break with 17 wins, one more win than last season’s total, they find themselves in flux of where this season is going. The Wolves are all but out of the playoff hunt and tanking looks attractive in order to get another high lottery pick to add to the young and talented core. But the Wolves know that, eventually, they will have to start winning. And starting to win going into the end of the season, isn’t such a bad idea. Britt Robson mentioned at the end of his article in the MinnPost that ‘The Stakes Have Never Been Higher’ and it couldn’t be any more true. As displayed in the final game before the all-star break, the Wolves have arguably the brightest future in the NBA. Karl-Anthony Towns impressed again by posting a career-high 35 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 blocks. Towns broke Kevin Love’s franchise record for double-doubles by a rookie in this game. Fellow future star Andrew Wiggins ,aka Maple Jordan, posted 26 points by coming through in the fourth quarter with a lot of important scores. They showed just how good they could potentially be by beating a very good Toronto Raptors team.

As my favorite movie is Hitch with Will Smith, there is a line in that movie that resonates well with the Wolves situation. While I don’t have time to directly quote the movie, Hitch tells his client in a taxi cab something along the lines of “It no longer your job to make her like you. Its your job not to mess it up.” This couldn’t be any more true for the Wolves. The Wolves have two of the top prospects in the NBA in Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, and they arrived on a platter.

The job is now is to develop them and surround them with talent. It should be pretty easy. Right?

Towns and Wiggins will ultimately develop into good individual players even if you set them in an incubator for the next five years. The jury is still out on Andrew Wiggins as to if he will ACTUALLY live up to his potential. Bill Simmons mentioned that Wiggins could be the next ‘Rudy Gay’ in the league where their reputation around the league is that they are a great player but the local fans know just how bad they really are. Many complain that Wiggins isn’t rebounding or adding much else outside of scoring, which is valid. The Wolves could use more effort on the court from Wiggins. The Wolves could also use a reliable, consistent, 3-point shot from Wiggins. As of right now, Rubio has a better 3pt% than Wiggins. Matter of fact, I believe every starting guard in the NBA has a better 3pt% than Wiggins.

With that said, if Wiggins didn’t develop those things, he wouldn’t be a bad starter. He can absolutely score the ball. He can also absolutely defend for the most part. If he doesn’t develop those things, he likely will never be an all-star and will likely see his minutes cut as there will be some 3 and D wing who can be more efficient with their time on the floor. Chances are though, Wiggins will develop some of these skills. The kid is only 20. Be patient.

I’ve wanted to write an article about Karl-Anthony Towns but fear I may be too homerish. So I will stick to this paragraph. If Towns doesn’t develop anymore, he is an All-Star next season. Currently the only thing holding Towns back is Sam Mitchell and maybe foul trouble. But Towns is an absolute joy to watch. What is mind blowing to me the most though is that he has an incredible FG% (54% from the field) and shoots almost 50% in the midrange! So when Towns learns to take higher percentage shots and can take/ make more threes later in his career, what happens? *Insert head exploding hand motion here* The other thing I love about Towns is his attitude. He is smart, savvy, passionate, competitive, humble, and hilarious. I can’t wait until he wants to dominate his opponents like KG. Then what happens? *Again, mind blown* Shot chart below:

Screen Shot 2016-02-11 at 8.34.53 AM

So how to develop these guys? That is one of the major keys.

First, it is to take the rest of this season seriously. I know, the Wolves risk improving their record and getting a worse pick. But to me, I actually like the picks later in the top 10 better than 4-6 range, which I will talk about later when I talk about the surround portion of the t-log. The Wolves need to play the second half of the season as if they have a chance at the playoffs. Their young guys have to play together and pull out team wins similar to the recent games against the Raptors and Clippers. The momentum needs to be carried into next season in which the Wolves can truly make a playoff run. The Wolves have all the necessary pieces to be competitive this season. Health hasn’t been an issue for the first time in years. The veterans on the team seem to be rubbing off on the young guys. And there is already quite a bit of talent in Towns and Wiggins that can compete against many teams.

Next, the Wolves need to get in a new coaching staff this summer. There are horror stories about coaches who can’t connect with younger players because they are yelling at them too much. Sam Mitchell’s ‘old-school’ mentality is just not something that is going to work long term here. The Wolves need a coach that will grow with the team and focus on player development. There is a good amount of coaches that are available that fit that mold much better than Mitchell.

Lastly, the Wolves will have a crucial summer for their young guys. Kobe Bryant mentioned that he would love to work with Wiggins and LaVine this summer. I remain skeptical because I remember Wes Johnson spent his summers with Kobe and it didn’t seem to pay dividends, but I am not opposed to it. Regardless, Towns, Wiggins, & LaVine should be in the gym daily together trying to get better. They all need a consistent 3-pointer. They all need to become better defenders. And they all need to do this together. They likely will not be playing in the summer league this summer which is a blessing. It will give them an opportunity to hopefully expand their games to another level instead of trying to get used to the NBA-style of play.

Now on to surrounding Wiggins and Towns with talent. How does that happen?

Well, first keep the talent you have. Rubio, Bjelica, and Dieng are three younger guys that likely won’t get much better than they already are. And that is fine. As hard as Wolves fans are on Rubio, he is probably the single player that helps the team even be competitive outside of Towns at this point. Rubio has the second best Win Share on the team with 3.7, behind Towns’ 5.6 and right above Dieng’s 3.4. He makes the players around him better and is solid on defense. Dieng on the other hand is looking like the perfect role player. A guy who is effective off of the bench and can start when needed. He is also pairing well with Towns which is great for the future. Bjelica has struggled this season. But I believe he is just adjusting to the NBA still. I think his ability to shoot is too good to give up on right now. He is also an amazing playmaker which is valuable at his position.

The Wolves need to also develop and assess their current assets. Once they are assessed, they can turn them into talent or to trade bait. LaVine is on the fringe of this category in which I have mentioned him in the same category as Towns and Wiggins. Its hard to tell still if LaVine is that caliber of a prospect or will have a role player type of career. I will say he is a develop and keep type of asset. Then there is Muhammed, Jones, and Payne. Muhammed is in a situation where he maybe peaking in terms of value and the Wolves need to determine if they want to hold or sell this summer. Muhammed is approaching the point where the Wolves will need to decide if they want to extend him next season (along with Dieng). Once Muhammed is locked into that contract, his value will begin to diminish as he will be expected to produce to the level of that contract. Today, he is being paid for what he could be and the Wolves are enjoying that. But it will be decision time for Muhammed and Dieng this summer before they get big boy contracts.

Jones and Payne are still in ‘assess’ mode but their values are dropping dramatically. They aren’t able to contribute on a young team which makes them look bad. And they’ve looked bad in games too. To me, Payne is already a liability on the team and should be moved at any cost. Power Forward remains a big question for the Wolves and Payne will not be the answer. Jones could be something still, but will need time to play this season if there is room for him on the team. There is the need for a back up point guard on the roster now. The Wolves will address that need this summer whether its internally or externally.

What happens to the veterans? Prince and Miller will likely be gone next season. I would not be surprised if Garnett was gone but the hope is he is back next season in some sort of capacity. In an ideal world, Garnett moves into minority ownership and/ or begins to make personnel decisions. I have to begin to wonder if Pekovic will retire due to his inability to be healthy. If not, the Wolves are likely stuck with him for a very long time unless someone wants to take a chance on him. Kevin Martin is an interesting piece of the puzzle. I am opposed to trading Martin at the trade deadline and more inclined to trading him this summer or during the season next year. He will be a $7M expiring contract at the end of next season. Martin then becomes an asset to someone as he expires and can still actually play. Packaging him with Muhammed could score the Wolves a decent power forward for next year.

Then on to the 1st-round pick. The NBA draft is easily my favorite part of the season. As a Wolves fan, its what I have become. And when the Wolves are in the bottom 5 teams in the league, its hard for me to not say ‘tank!’. But the Wolves have to get better and the 5th pick is almost no-mans land in this draft. The best talent is in the top 2 picks. And while I am intrigued by Dragan Bender, he isn’t the next Porzingis. I would rather get a guy like Ivan Rabb, Diamond Stone, or even Buddy Hield. This is a draft where I would rather pick 7 to 12 than from 4-6. It sounds crazy but the Wolves need a sure-thing role player and not a high-upside, high-bust potential prospect. Bender, Murray, and Dunn all fit that bill. Its early to tell where a lot of these guys will go now though. But I will definitely cover more this summer when we know where we are picking and the players have declared for the draft.

Coming back out of the weeds, this should be pretty simple. Start winning now. Start building around Towns and Wiggins. Surround them with good players. Based on Towns and Wiggins’ performances this season, this team is capable of making a playoff push next season. And if they don’t next season, at least in the future. And if they don’t then, the Minnesota Timberwolves organization really, really messed up.

Just a friendly reminder, even though I maybe mention this in every other t-log, the Wolves hold the longest-active playoff drought in the NBA at 11 seasons, soon to be 12.

The Timber Rebuilder.

A Morale Victory

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The Wolves dropped a close game last night to the Eastern Conference leading Cleveland Cavaliers. Although it will be chalked up as a loss, the young Wolves on the floor put together an effort that can be taken as a morale victory. Losing 114-107 on the road without Kevin Garnett against the Eastern Conference Champs is a better than what was expected.

There were areas in which the Wolves could’ve played better. For whatever reason, Tristan Thompson did what he wanted against Dieng and Bjelica in the second half. The Wolves couldn’t keep up with the Cavaliers three point shooting. The Wolves had countless opportunities to take the lead but when it mattered, they didn’t take care of the basketball. And the Wolves defense just wasn’t solid overall. Sam Mitchell didn’t help the cause as he let the Wolves entire bench play against the Cavs starters in the fourth quarter in which the lead got out of control. But when the Wiggins and Towns came back in, the Wolves made a come back that nearly caused an upset.

Beyond that, this is the main this that stuck out in the game last night:

Karl-Anthony Towns: 26 points & 11 rebounds

Zach LaVine: 21 points off the bench

Andrew Wiggins: 20 points

This was basically what Wolves fans were waiting for all season. A game where the young stars collectively shined together. Each played to their strengths and were major reasons why the Wolves were in the game. As Karl Towns and Andrew Wiggins are well on their way to be the youngest two players to lead their team in scoring, last night was a reminder of just how much talent is on this team.

The great thing is, the Wolves did this with no one taking more than 16 shots. And they did it in their own personal elements. Towns was going inside and outside. Wiggins was slashing. LaVine was hitting long twos and getting his points in transition.

The other beautiful thing that occurred in this game was that Wiggins, LaVine, Towns, Dieng, and Muhammed all scored in double-figures. This was likely the first time all of them have done that collectively in one night. To see all of the Wolves young players put it together like this tonight was a sight to see. Even if the Wolves lost this one, it was absolutely one to remember.

P.S. Kevin Love had 11 points too.

The Timber Rebuilder.

It Takes More Than Talent

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First off, I am back. I was traveling for a month’s time and finally back in my groove. School is going to be intensified this semester, but will always look to continue contributing.

In my time away, the Wolves have struggled. I have followed from a distance. Excuses can’t be made like years past. The team is healthy, heck – even Nikola Pekovic is playing. A lot of the players have gotten minutes. And while a lot of guys have been able to showcase their talents, the Wolves have underwhelmed over half way through the season. The Wolves showed promise early on, starting the season 8-8 and the West has been weaker than most seasons. Somehow, the Wolves find themselves at 13-30 without many excuses.

Before Flip Saunders passed, he made an emphasis on building a winning culture. Flip wanted to bring in guys who wanted to win and change the identity of the franchise. He was very intentional about every guy he brought in to surround the young core. While it looked like the Wolves were headed in the right direction early, somewhere there was a collapse in that vision. There was a pivotal point in the season where the Wolves decided to have a ‘moment of truth’ type of meeting instead of practice. The veterans seemed to be blaming the young guys and the young guys pointed fingers at the head coach. The Wolves fan base has found an easy-out in blaming Sam Mitchell, and while it can be valid, the issue is bigger than that.

The Wolves have the talent. The Wolves have the assets. Yes, they are inexperienced, but this team can compete. But the culture hasn’t been established. And a valid concern is that the right personnel is not that to establish that culture. As learned in business school, ‘Culture eats Talent’. The Wolves are going through the necessary bumps and bruised to build a winning culture. But it will truly be how the Wolves franchise react to the adversity that defines the culture. The culture is in jeopardy as the Wolves now have the worst franchise winning percentage in the league.  Will the Wolves let that define them?

To get away from that, the Wolves need to leverage this experience this season. They need to get the most out of their talent now. The front office also needs to make decisions on who is a part of the future here and what part do they play in it? Once that is decided, the coaching staff needs to implement that vision in developing the players to get them in that role. From the looks of it, the coaching staff has failed at this or the front office has yet to determine these roles. Shabazz Muhammed is the best example of this as of late. Shabazz’s future may be as a 6th man, but isn’t a 6th man in the future more valuable if he has starting experience? The opportunity is there for him to start. Even if he doesn’t succeed as a starter, although it did last season, he will gain the necessary experience to become a player off the bench who plays like a starter while the first five are resting. The mishandling of Shabazz has been frustrating in that sense. But the same can be said about how most of the young players have been handled.

The Wolves need to also develop an identity. A brand of basketball. What will opponents think of the Wolves when they play them? It shouldn’t be automatic win or young players. The Wolves need to be good at something and be better than their opponents at it. Whether it be in the fast break or on the defensive end. It seems like the talent is there to be good at those things, but yet the Wolves still haven’t been able to be consistently good at them. There is plenty of time in the season to develop this, but it needs to be intentionally done.

The Wolves lost a big lead last night against the Pelicans and it just screamed to me that ‘it takes more than talent.’ The Wolves let Anthony Davis do what he wanted whenever he wanted. They didn’t play defense. And when the lead was gone, there was no question that the Wolves wouldn’t come back to reclaim it.

These are just my thoughts after a month of observing and not writing. The summer will likely bring in another young talented player, but it may mean nothing if that player is brought into talent. The Wolves need more guys with character. They need an identity. They need chemistry. Teams that try to win fast by acquiring talent really fast never win immediately. It takes more than talent.

Why The Wolves Have Struggled

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The Wolves have dropped eight of the last nine games after being at .500 at 8-8. The Wolves now find themselves at 9-16 a few games over the quarter mark of the season. The last eight losses have come to the Clippers and Nuggets twice each, Magic, Blazers, Suns, and Knicks. The lone win was against the Lakers in overtime. All the losses were winnable games where the biggest margin of loss was 12, the rest all within 10 points. Some games were games the Wolves held strong leads and lost them. Other games the Wolves found ways to fight back into them and get semi-close towards the end.

A couple things we want to do is examine what has changed after starting 8-8. We wanted to answer, what isn’t working? What are the problems? What can we point out? There is a heavy emphasis on plus/ minus in these game stats. We do this because we want to see the difference a player is making on the court vs their opponents. Lineups are important to this, but plus/ minus seems to be a good way to analyze what that player has done while on the floor.

  • Starters not competing: The Wolves starting lineup is not competing with other teams. The Net +/- in every loss has been massively negative. The starts have a Net average +/- of -24.875 in the eight losses, while the bench has an average of -2.625. The bench is surprisingly keeping the Wolves in the game, mostly thanks to the strong play of LaVine and Dieng. In the one win, the Wolves starters demolished the Lakers starters. I would like to believe this would be a simple change of moving LaVine into the starting lineup.
  • Wiggins’ Net +/- : it’s -59 in the eight losses the Wolves have suffered recently, which is the worst on the team. He has also had a negative +/- in each of the last 9 games. Wiggins needs to work on getting his teammates involved so that the overall team does better when he is on the floor. To Wiggins’ defense he has one of the highest usages on the team (LaVine has surpassed him) and logs the most minutes so it’s hard to keep these numbers respectable when he is in the game when the Wolves lose most of their leads. Outside of that, Wiggins is going to have to start finishing around the basket at the same rate as he was before all of the losses.
  • Bjelica is struggling: Bjelica was a big reason why the Wolves’ bench was one of the best in the league. He was consistently coming in to the game and nailing threes. In the eight losses, Bjelica has averaged less than 4 points. His shot has struggled in this stretch of games: Screen Shot 2015-12-17 at 12.56.01 PMAs you can see above, Bjelica is only scoring from the outside or near the basket. The shots outside the arc have not been falling for him. Ever since he went out with a knee injury, he hasn’t quite been the same.  With Bjelica not able to knock down as many threes, and quite honestly passing up on a lot of open ones, the spacing on the floor is bad. When the spacing is bad, more shots are contested. When more shots are contested, your field goal percentage dips. When your field goal percentage dips, you typically lose games. So if you are catching the drift here, a struggling Bjelica is not helping the cause.
  • Defense: The Wolves defense has assisted in the resurrection of careers for Randy Foye and Aaron Afflalo. The team is not defending by any stretch of the imagination. Teams are getting wide open looks from three. Ball movement collapses the Wolves on D almost exactly as it should. This is where Prince did help in the starting lineup almost where Martin has made the Wolves less reputable in that category. If the Wolves want to win, they have to defend. In the eight losses, the Wolves have allowed a higher FG% than they have shot in all but one game.
  • Kevin Martin: The replacement of Martin into the starting lineup has been the most obvious thing that has changed. The Wolves won 3 straight after they put Martin in the starting lineup, but it could not be credited to Martin. The Wolves faced the winless Sixers, Cousin-less Kings, and a Hawks team that should’ve been a loss. Martin has scored well, but has done it in a very inconsistent fashion. On three occasions, he has scored 2 points or less. He has struggled defensively, which shouldn’t come as a surprise. It probably doesn’t help either that trade rumors are swirling around him. Main point is, he probably should be in the starting lineup let alone on the roster at this point.
  • Prince less, Bazz more: In the eight losses, Shabazz Muhammad has had a net +/- of 1, where Prince has a -34. Yet, Bazz is only averaging less than two minutes more a game than Prince. Prince is not the player he once was at all. In this stretch of games he has averaged 1 point and a little over a rebound a game. His now average, if not below average, defense is not worth his poor effort on offense. The Wolves should see Shabazz in games more than Prince period. This is the influence behind all of our #FreeShabazz tweets.

The Wolves are approaching an inflection point, similar to previous years. We enter the year thinking we can compete and then we realize, ‘dang, we aren’t that good.’ Mitchell has mentioned that playing the veterans more would help the team win an 8th seed, and I have to respectfully disagree. The veterans on this team should continue to be used more so as mentors than rotation players.

There is time to turn the season around if the Wolves can put the right players together. Sam Mitchell’s recent comments about playing veterans 28 minutes and that development doesn’t happen during the season are not encouraging. First step will be a starting lineup that competes and defends. I don’t think the Wolves have the personnel to do that though and would require some trades. The Wolves need to pursue a 3 and D guy to help on the perimeter and take Kevin Martin’s minutes. But the Wolves entered this slew of games with an amazing opportunity, a sequence of winnable games. They were able to measure themselves against teams with more or less similar records. Unfortunately, they’ve lost nearly all of them.

The Wolves are still figuring things out. They are still trying to understand how to incorporate Karl Towns into the offense. Ricky Rubio’s jump shot remains inconsistent. Sam Mitchell seems to always be defensive when approached by the media about his rotations. These things are season long issues and not necessarily the cause of the losses at this point. But above is what has changed over the last 9 games. The Wolves are no longer a great defensive team. Their starters seem to not be clicking. And members of their bench are not as reliable as they once were.